Thursday, February 1, 2007

January Sales Numbers

January's sales numbers for Greater Victoria have just been posted at VREB. Anticipating the monthly numbers is not unlike watching sports. The game is between the Bulls and the Bears. If 2007 were the beginning of a new football game, I think that the score would be Bulls 3, Bears 0. The game is close, but it is only early.

Average SFH and townhomes were down slightly from the 6 month rolling averages. Average condo is way up from the 6 month average.

SFH had a strong month for prices in View Royal, East Saanich, West Saanich, and North Saanich. SFH had a weak month in Esquimalt and Colwood. A big whoop-dee-doo stat is that nearly a quarter of SFH sold were for under $375k. That sure doesn't bode well for affordability. Less than a quarter of the homes sold were "affordable".

Waterfront condos had a VERY strong month. Without the waterfront condos in the calculation, the average would be $302k. Nearly a $50k difference.

The updated SFH medians graph is all over the place. It's funny how the median can bounce around so much. Up to $70k between some months.

I'm really not a fan of the average price statistic. Luxury properties really skew the results, as shown in the average condo price. I wonder how many sellers and buyers look at the average price to determine what their average property is worth. So many new developments in Greater Victoria are luxury properties. I think that the pulling up of the average selling price statistic, due to the sale of these high-end properties, makes people believe that their non-luxury, average real estate property is worth more than it really is. The sale of 8 high-end condos on the waterfront does not make an average 2 bedroom condo that was worth $300k last month, worth $350k this month.

What's in store for February? Higher prices? Higher inventory? My prediction - inventory will continue to rise. It will remain around 25% higher than last year. Prices will drop slightly. But I've been thinking that for about 2 years!