Victoria Gold and Housing and Real Estate Market Blog

Vested...

2009-07-18T10:47:00.000-07:00

This will be my final post.

We've bought a house. The deal is done, conditions are removed. We're about to become home-debtors, no longer renters. My father put it nicely, we'll be renting from the bank, not from a landlord. So true...

We're happy. We're excited to move into the new place. I'm already making a list of things I'd like to do around the house. I'm looking forward to cutting the grass, planting a garden (next year of course), painting, having our own bedroom, a garage to work on the car, a place to put down roots and really become a part of the larger community.

I think we got a half decent deal on the house, as far as deals go. Can you really call any deal these days a good deal? I've already noticed within myself my lack of interest in the real estate market. It's become boring to me. I now don't want to see prices crash, as we are now vested. My attitude has changed in that way. Before buying and becoming vested in the market, I wanted to see the market tank. I even wanted the economy as a whole to tank. I thought that we'd make it through the tough times and come out better on the other end. But today, I no longer wish these things. I don't really care if housing prices rise, because it won't affect us - we're in this for the long term, not to make a profit. I now find myself cheering the economy on, believing that this will stabilize the housing market, and that there will be lots of work for everyone!

Thanks to everyone for participating and reading this blog. I've enjoyed having it and providing a forum for discussion. I think I've learnt through it (although, some of you may disagree!), and had a place to vent my opinions. Unfortunately, my zealousness has severely decreased since my wife and I welcomed our little prairiegirl into the world. I love the quote that Just Jack gave after her birth "Astronomers are unable to find the centre of the Universe. You just found yours." Exactly! I hope that another forum for discussion can be found. I think it's great how HHV is broadening his blog to include financial topics.

I feel like today is a bit of an end of an era for me. This blog has been a part of my life for quite a while and become a small community in itself. However, it has now run it's course. It would be interesting to meet a lot of you, but I think that some feel like I've betrayed the readers of this blog, and I don't care to deal with that negativity. I don't believe I've betrayed anyone. My purpose of the blog was not to be a doomsayer or trash the real estate market, but rather to have a better understanding of it. We've bought because it was the right time for us, and that is the only reason.

Thanks again. Have a great summer, enjoy our beautiful city and country, and God bless!

Early June Sales Numbers

2009-07-01T09:45:00.000-07:00

Of course, June sales numbers won't be out until tomorrow at the earliest. So here are my SFH sales estimates. Average price should be close to $600000, probably between $590k and $600k. June 2009 average will be higher than June 2008. Median looks to be around $535000. Total SFH sold in June will be slightly lower than May. I'd estimate that total VREB sales for June will also be a little lower than May, but higher than June 2008. It's a wide range, but sales should be between 750 and 850 for June. Inventory has also dropped - last night I recorded 4126 properties for sale, as per this realtor's website. This morning they show 3911 properties for sale. Inventory is significantly lower this June than June 2008.

We've put an offer on a house. They countered, we countered, they countered, and we couldn't agree on a price. We were disappointed, but in hindsight, I firmly believe it was a blessing in disguise. The search continues....

Where we're at...

2009-06-14T11:05:00.001-07:00

I'll try to jot down a couple thoughts before the little one wakes from her nap.

Thus far, we've gone through approximately a dozen open houses and seen 6 homes with our realtor. We haven't been wowed by anything yet, probably due to our expectations, which I feel are likely unrealistic for today's market. Yesterday at an open house, people were swarming like flies on poop, and the showing realtor said that the previous day, 7 offers had been submitted. Hearing that, our stay was not very long. It looks like with the current low mortgage rates, every FTB has come out of the woodwork. Frustrating, needless to say.

And the business is showing - so far this month, I'm estimating 15 SFH sales per day, with the average price hovering around $590000, the median at $540000.

We've also seen a mortgage broker. I was somewhat surprised at what we got pre-approved for. A little scary in fact. My wife and I aren't comfortable with the debt load we are allowed to carry, so I doubt we'll be pushing the envelope with our purchase - when it happens. I've been happy with our mortgage broker experience thus far. He didn't want to push us off a cliff, which was nice. Funny though how the approval went straight to a 35 year amortization - no talk even of anything less. It does appear that 35 years is the new norm. With it being that way, I don't see the price of entry level homes coming down much at all for many years - at least until mortgage rates rise significantly. There are simply more FTBs looking for 3 bedroom homes around $350k to $450k than there are homes available.

The Debate Continues...

2009-05-24T11:46:00.000-07:00

I appreciate all the comments following my announcement in my last post. Thanks to those wishing us luck, we'll need it, and to the others that think it's a stupid decision, that's ok too. I lost some sleep last night thinking about it all.

I do continue to debate within myself whether this is the right decision for my family. At this point, I do believe it is. My frustration comes from fellow renters who brag about how cheaply they have been renting a house for the past 5, or 7, or 10 years! Yes, rent was much cheaper then, and your landlord can only increase your rent to a max of 4% annually. Try finding the same place today - I don't think you can. A quick scan of homes for rent on Craigslist, UsedVic, and the TC, shows that you only get shiite for $1600 / month. So, you can rent from the bank or you can rent from a landlord. You know, I am tired of this debate. Both are not great options. I've owned a house in my past - I am not naive to all that is involved. I know that when we find the right place for the right price, the happiness level for our family will be higher than if we move into another rental. That is worth something - for everything else there is Mastercard! hahaha...

Looking at sales throughout Greater Victoria thus far this month, we are on pace to have around 430 SFH sales. The average sale price thus far is around $585000, the median is around $535000. Low interest rates are definitely affecting home sales.

We're off to some open houses... stay tuned.

Phase Shift

2009-05-18T11:50:00.000-07:00

Like the new title? At the request of you guys, we'll try it out. I can't say I'm a gold bug, so you'll have to further spur on the conversation.

I am slightly shifting the focus of my blog from this point on. Reason being, I've recently completed some career enhancing studies, and it's time for the next phase in the life of my family. This is the year that we will be purchasing a home of some sort in Greater Victoria. I can already hear the boos and hisses, but that's ok. Little Prairiegirl is getting bigger every day, and we are out-growing our little apartment suite. Sure, we could find a house to rent, but quite frankly, I am tired of moving around and what to put roots down. If it were possible to time the market, and if we could wait longer, we would. But you can't time the market, and we have to move this year, so we're going to jump in, with eyes wide open.

Our search criteria is quite wide at this point - we will be examining a number of options including building new (which would include putting in some sweat equity), buying a fixer upper, buying with a suite, however, preferably without a suite. Our goal is to find a place that we can realistically afford, to be in a good family neighbourhood, and to plan to stay in our place for 10 years. Sounds easy, right? We'll see.

What's up with this market?

2009-04-21T17:20:00.001-07:00

I don't know what to make of Victoria's real estate market. The lower interest rates do appear to be having an effect on the bottom end of the single family home market. Prices are not receding as I thought they would. And inventory is certainly not rising as I thought it would.

Today, there are 4257 properties for sale in Greater Victoria, according to this realtor's website. On March 22, I recorded 4311 properties for sale from the same website.

At the pace of sales so far this month, there should be approximately 330 - 340 SFH sold in April. Yes, this is less than last year, but not by much. Average sale price is hovering around $565000, the median around $525000.

The market peak for the year is usually in April and May. Perhaps what we are seeing is exactly to be expected. Any observations from the condo market?

March Sales Numbers

2009-04-01T20:44:00.000-07:00

The VREB has released the March real estate sales numbers for Victoria. I got dizzy reading their report because of all of the spin!

March Madness

2009-03-29T20:43:00.000-07:00

March is going to be touted by the VREB as another month of a stable and balanced real estate market in Greater Victoria. They will likely continue to compare stats month-to-month, as that spins them in their favour.

Of the stats I'm keeping, it looks like March will have approximately 290 SFH sales, with an average between $535k and $540k. The median will be around $515k. Month-over-month this looks impressive. What about year-over-year? Last March, there were 374 sales, with an average of $597k and a median of around $530k. Now this March doesn't look so impressive.

Sorry, I don't have any info regarding townhomes and condos.

Deal... or No Deal?

2009-03-17T22:26:00.000-07:00

Due to the underwhelming success of the auction at Reflections in Langford, they have again lowered prices. This time, they are following the cues of Finlayson Reach and St. Andrew's Walk by chopping their prices by up to 40%. Good discount, but are they now good prices? What is the fair market value?

Some feel that fair market value is equal rent to ownership costs. I'll go with that. What would a 1 bedroom and den unit at Reflections rent for? Maybe $1100 / month? Strata fees and taxes for that unit would be maybe $250 / month. Subtract those from the rent = $850 / month mortgage payment. Today, you can get a 5 year fixed for 4.09%. With a 35 year amortization, you'd have a $180000 mortgage. Of course, you'd still need to cover a down payment and other associated fees (CMHC, property transfer tax, etc). The cheapest unit advertised is still $199000. That price is close, but still too high.

Bear Market at Bear Mountain

2009-03-15T12:04:00.000-07:00

Bear Mountain is calling it a bear market and slashing prices at Finlayson Reach and St. Andrews Walk. This was mentioned over at Vibrant Victoria a couple days ago, just haven't had the time to post it yet. H/T to anonymous for mentioning it in the comments of the last post.

Also, H/T to anonymous regarding the auction at Reflections - Chek6 reported that 15 of the 40 units sold. So, 25 condos left. When's the no reserve auction?

Apparently, a local realtor sent out the following email recently. I thought it was good for a laugh.

"You may already know, but I wanted to ensure that you were aware of two significant developments that occurred last week in the Victoria Real Estate Market.

Firstly, Bank of Canada interest rates dropped by another half point followed by most Chartered Banks. Prime Rate now stands at 2.5% which is unprecedented in a generation.

Secondly, the Victoria Real Estate Board announced that the number of sales in the Greater Victoria Region had risen substantially during the month of January over the previous two months.

The reaction in the marketplace to these two events was immediate and dramatic. Buyers sensed that the market was turning and that prices would now begin to stabilize after months of decline and uncertainty. This combined with record low mortgage rates resulted in an amazing number of accepted offers over the weekend on listings that in many cases enjoyed multiple offers. It has been a while since this kind of market activity has been evident in the Greater Victoria Region.

It is a great time to buy and more and more people are recognizing the opportunities that are available."

P.S. Just saw the money printing video, thanks HHV for the link. These are scary times. Thanks Obama.

It's Auction Time!

2009-02-26T22:44:00.000-08:00

Reflections in Langford is having an auction! Who's bidding? And who's next?

New Post, YEAH!

2009-02-23T22:00:00.000-08:00

Ok, here's a new post.

Picked up today's Macleans. Front cover was the housing bust. Read it online, it's ok.

I've been enjoying Garth Turner's posts these days. Seems that since he lost his political seat, he has much more time for his blog. Maybe he found his calling.

Oh yeah, real estate in Victoria. At this point, it looks like February average SFH sales price should come in around $520k, median at $485k. Total SFH sales should be around 200 for the month, big improvement over January, a far cry from previous Februaries.

2008 Poll Review

2009-01-31T10:34:00.000-08:00

The little one is finally asleep for a Saturday morning nap. I thought I'd take a look at the old blog. Holy Crap! 215 comments, better write a new post.

First, from my SFH sales monitoring, it looks like January will have an average selling price of around $525000, with the median coming in around $475000. I'd estimate around 130 SFH sales for the month.

I've been meaning for the past month to review the poll I put out there at the beginning of 2008. Of course, it hasn't happened, till now. The results were posted in my January 9, 2008 blog.

At the beginning of 2008, 53% of you were pessimistic about 2008. It all depends on how you look at it. For me, it was a good year. How about for you?

73% thought that Victoria's average SFH selling price would be lower in 2008 than 2007. It wasn't. The average for 2007 was $565904. The average for 2008 was $585701.

52% thought that Canada would enter a recession in 2008. I believe that remains to be seen, as Stats Canada has not released numbers for December yet.

95% knew that the U.S. would enter a recession in 2008.

78% thought that the loonie would remain above par with the greenback. Nope.

13% of us were close to predicting how high oil would rise - $150. The final peak for the year was just over $147 (correct me if I'm wrong).

62% thought we'd go to the polls in 2008. We almost went twice!

92% believed the next U.S. president would be a democrat. How right they were.

January sales numbers come out in a couple days. They should be interesting. Have a great weekend.

Holding their breath

2009-01-10T15:17:00.001-08:00

I have a quick question (or two).

These days, how long can a developer hold on to the hope of selling their condo units for nearly the full price after a project has been completed?

How long is it, after a building is completed, yet not sold out, until a developer has a fire sale?

Here's a partial list of developments in Victoria that are completed, or near, and still have units for sale - Bayview, Chelsea, Dockside Green, Aria, Juliet, Redstone, Breakwater, Palladian, Pearl, Vicino, Gateway, Aspen, Tuscany, Centennial Walk, Richmond Gate, Julia, Madrona Creek, Carriage Pointe, Finlayson Reach, Reflections, Stonehaven, Goldstream Station, Strathmore, Tara, La Vie, and I've probably missed some.

Happy New Year! 3 days late...

2009-01-03T20:57:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year everyone. God bless, and we'll see what 2009 brings, right? I love roller coasters.

VREB has released the numbers for December. Slow sales, ever so small price increase in SFH and condos. The new VREB prez, Chris Markham, put the usual spin on the numbers. It may be just me, be he doesn't appear to be the eternal optimist that Tony Joe was.

Little Prairiegirl

2008-12-14T12:02:00.000-08:00

My wife and I have been blessed with the addition of a little prairiegirl to our family. To say that life changes after having a baby is a absolute understatement! Especially when she likes to have her days and nights reversed. It's supposed to get better though, so we'll get through it, I'm not too worried. However, my blogging may suffer even more than it has lately - if that is possible!

Real estate related, December is turning out to be another slow month. SFH sales should probably come in around 120 - 130 for the month. The average and median sale price are currently hovering around $510k thus far. Of course, any high priced home sales will immediately skew that number.

November Sales Numbers

2008-12-01T19:05:00.000-08:00

The VREB has posted the November sales numbers on their website.

I made $41613, tax free, by having not bought a SFH in Victoria in October! Shhhh, not too loud though. I don't want the tax man to find out!

Our months of inventory continues to rise to stratospheric levels. It may soon be showing up on NORAD's radars!

Softening Prices

2008-11-29T11:07:00.000-08:00

It looks like this blog has taken on its' own life and become a gold blog. Very interesting, and everyone seems quite opinionated.

The pace of sales of SFH in Greater Victoria has picked up in the latter part of this month. However, it is still historically very slow. We're now looking at around 120 SFH having sold in November. Prices have certainly softened as well. I'm calculating the average selling price for SFH to come in between $530k and $535k. This number would drop the price back to the February 2007 level. The median for the month should come in around $500k.

Total housing inventory for the region has dropped this month. Today, this website states there are 5033 properties for sale. On October 29th, there were 5281 properties for sale.

It will be interesting to see how Tony Joe spins this month.

Quotable Quotes

2008-11-15T12:57:00.000-08:00

Cameron Muir, BCREA chief economist, "Homes sales are unlikely to fall much further... That being said we expect home sales not to decline much further." November 15, 2008, Times Colonist.

Tony Joe, Victoria Real Estate Board President, "While we cannot predict the future or remain completely immune from the larger economic forces now at play in the world, we believe much of the recent doom and gloom pessimism regarding the housing market is unwarranted, at least as far as the Victoria area is concerned. Yes, the market has slowed down but we can liken that to some air escaping from the balloon; there is no indication at present that the balloon itself is in danger of bursting. The fundamentals remain strong..." November 15, 2008, Times Colonist, page E9.

Perhaps both of these gentlemen should look at Novembers' sales thus far. I'm estimating that fewer than 100 SFH will have sold in Greater Victoria by the end of this month. Last November there were 310 SFH sales. Not one house has sold in Sooke or Colwood so far this month.

However, the headlines will of course read "Sales slow, prices rebound" as the average SFH selling price thus far in November is near $600000, the median near $550000.

Kiddies, if your mom or dad is a realtor, go easy on them this Christmas. Times are going to be tough for a while longer.

October Sales Numbers

2008-11-08T12:01:00.000-08:00

I'm a little late with the sales numbers this month. It's been a busy week...

How the VREB can put a positive spin on this past months numbers is beyond me. Sales were abysmal! The VREB will positive spin anything - if there was 1 sale, with a selling price of one million bucks, the headlines would read "Prices hit a new record, sales soften". Go figure.

Here's the usual graphs...

October's last two days

2008-10-29T16:58:00.000-07:00

Victoria's home sales have gone off the cliff this month. My estimate today is similar to what I had after the first 10 days of the month. It looks like there will have been 150 - 170 SFH sold in October in Greater Victoria. Within the past 4 years, the previous lowest monthly sales was December 2005 with 183 sales. It looks like the average sale price will have rebounded from last month - I'm estimating it to be around $570000. The median looks to be between $480k and $490k.

I've heard condo sales have been very slow as well. What's the word on the street?

Week Ending October 11

2008-10-11T10:19:00.000-07:00

Due to the recent changes on the MLS.ca website, I'm no longer able to closely track housing inventory numbers as I have in the past. I guess, as a consumer, the changes aren't too bad. I like the mapping, however, it would be nice to be able to search within a defined region.

I am following sales more closely these days. Based on the first 10 days of October, sales have dropped off the side of a cliff. If the trend continues from the first 10 days of the month through to the end, we will be looking at around 150 to 175 SFH sales. The three previous Octobers had 344, 312, and 299 sales, respectively. Median sale price is running around $470000, the average is around $560000 (this due to a $3million home selling in Oak Bay).

Tuesday is our big day in Canada - get out and vote! We have all seen this video on TV or the Internet already, but I think it would be good to give it another view.

Have a great long weekend, and let's remember to be thankful for all of our blessings.

September Sales Numbers

2008-10-01T17:47:00.000-07:00

That's the last time the average selling price of a single family home in Victoria sold for less than it did this September.

VREB has posted the sales numbers for September. They can be viewed on their website.

VictoriaPANIC?

2008-09-29T20:49:00.000-07:00

Another crazy day. Do you think our city of Victoria will ever get to PANIC mode? People do seem a little tense about the recent happenings. Housing is no longer a given, and with so many blue hairs in our city, the stock market is a definite concern. Hopefully people near retirement age have done their financial planning and thrown most of their savings into something secure.

One day until October. I'm still guessing around 280 SFH sales in September, with a median just below $500k and an average around $550k.

If those numbers are close, as a renter I'll have made $20k since last September, as last year's median was $520k. Shucks, that more than pays for this previous year's rent! Maybe a new show for TLC should be Renter Ladder (not Property Ladder), featuring renters climbing the real estate market ladder by not having bought!

The Roller Coaster Continues

2008-09-17T17:23:00.000-07:00

This downward portion of the coaster is a little scarier, isn't it? There appears to be uncertainty all around us. Having started our little family, life decisions take on another magnitude of seriousness. The best thing to do may be to hunker down and work hard. Who knows what tomorrow brings! I think it's better to be optimistic, while being realistic, in decision making. I refuse to live in fear all the days of my life.

Regarding non-real estate related comments - it's all good with me. Just keep them family friendly and no personal attacks, please. I think that real estate, the economy, even politics, are intertwined. So go ahead - carry on!

It looks to me like real estate listings continue to increase for Greater Victoria. On September 2, after the month-end drop-off in listings, there were 4836 listings. Today, there are 5109 listings on this realtor's website. That's an increase of 273. 5109 is the highest I have recorded for this year.

As for sales, I'm watching SFH sales more closely these days. It looks to me like the average price for September will be very similar to August, as there have been a number of million dollar homes sold. However, median sales price should be lower than last months'. The number of sales should be higher than August, yet lower than September 2007. If the current trend continues, I'm guessing we'll see around 260 - 280 SFH sold in September for Greater Victoria.

Sorry, I have no idea what's going on with condos and townhomes. Any ideas?

August Sales Numbers

2008-09-02T19:13:00.000-07:00

VREB has released the sales numbers for August 2008.

Comments have already started on this site. H/T to HHV and Roger as they have beat me to the punch.

However, here are my usual graphs.

Check out the months of inventory graph. We are so totally into a buyers' market!
More to follow in the coming days!

Is Summer Over?

2008-08-29T08:53:00.000-07:00

It sure feels like it. The weather network says that next weekend should be above average temps - I hope so. As for the real estate market, summer is definitely over.

From what I'm seeing, sales of SFH are way down. I'm estimating August sales for SFH to be around 240. From 2005 - 2007, August SFH sales were 350, 328, and 399 respectively. I'm estimating the average sale price for SFH in August to be $560k - $570k. Last year it was $576k. Median should come in around $525k, higher than last year.

I follow SFH much closer than condos or townhomes. I'd guess condo sales will also be below previous Augusts, with a slight month-over-month price decrease. Townhomes, also lower sales, but a steady sales price.

This realtor's website has 5049 properties currently for sale in Greater Victoria. I recorded 4915 properties for sale at the end of July. VREB inventory numbers should increase by around 150, to approximately 4700. August 2007 had around 3350 properties for sale.

What are you seeing in your neighbourhoods? My street block has 6 for sale signs. That's the most I've ever seen here at one time.

Have a great long weekend! Back in September with the monthly stats!

Thursday Freebie

2008-08-07T17:53:00.000-07:00

Lots of discussion and comments over the past week - good time to have a create a new post.

Front page of the Financial Post website right now has the following four articles.
- Canadian Housing in "Sustained downturn"
- Construction plans plunge, StatsCan reports
- House sales slip, prices stable
- Housing slump hits home

Also, from the Globe and Mail - Victoria's market is 30 to 35% overvalued.

Wow, everyone is so negative all of a sudden. Go figure! Have they been reading those bear blogs???

July Sales Numbers

2008-08-02T12:37:00.000-07:00

2008 will certainly mark the beginning of the bear run. In July, sales continued to decrease, inventory remained high, and prices have rounded the corner and are dropping. The VREB stats can be found at their website.

Median sale price of SFH dropped for the 4th consecutive month and is 2.9% higher than July 2007.

Median condo sale price is the lowest since August 2007. Sales are 31% lower than July 2007. If this does not have the condo developers getting worried, then I have no idea what will.

Townhome sales are an anomaly. Median sale price was the second highest on record, however, sales are down 50% from July 2007.

Months of inventory of all properties jumped over the 7 month mark. This is the highest of all data I have access to (dating back to 2005).

CMHC "Housing Now" for June

2008-07-30T17:52:00.000-07:00

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" production for June for Victoria and can be found here.

This house has finally sold. I don't know how many days on the market. Original asking price - $1049000. Sale price - $767000. That's still too much. MLS 245596. More power to them. There was a greater fool.

Interesting Websites

2008-07-17T20:47:00.000-07:00

I've added a couple of interesting weblinks to the right hand side of the blog. You may have seen them on other sites or in the commentary.

- The New York Times Rent vs. Buy calculator. Thanks to QL.
- Walk Score website - Find a walkable neighbourhood. It's fun to play with. Thanks to Housing Panic.
- Garth Turner's website. I don't agree with all that he says and stands for, but I have been reading it almost daily. He doesn't sugarcoat the current economic and housing situation.

Also, check out MLS 248177. This house just sold for $422000. That's $93000 off the asking price!

Too little too late

2008-07-09T19:33:00.000-07:00

"It's a bit like closing the barn door after the horse has already run down the road." Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., on today's announcement from the Government of Canada.

The new regulations certainly won't hurt the impending housing collapse.

Also, CMHC released their numbers for June housing starts for Vancouver Island.

June Sales Numbers

2008-07-03T19:03:00.001-07:00

Well, we're a little late to the show, so grab yourself some popcorn and a seat, and enjoy the ride!

MIA

2008-06-29T10:29:00.000-07:00

As a child, time passed by so slowly. I was always told, the older you get, the faster that time goes by. It's true.

I've had a lot going on, so it's come down to prioritizing. The blog has slipped on the importance list. It's nice though how it carries on without me. Please do feel free to continue to use the blog as a forum even as my postings have become less frequent.

Further on the person note, a couple months ago I ranted on how perhaps it was time to get out of the rental market. Well, it looks like we've decided to give our rental suite another year. We'll just make room and organize a little better for when this little person arrives this fall. In a year's time, we'll re-evaluate again.

I have still been keep inventory stats. Listings continue to increase, not quite at the pace as experienced in May though. I have only 6 more condos listed on MLS.ca today than there were on May 31. There are 4 fewer townhomes. There are 96 more SFH. In comparison to last year, there are 282 more SFH listings.

According to this realtor's website, there are right now 4848 active listings in Greater Victoria. This is 230 more than on May 31. The numbers don't make sense. None-the-less, inventory is still increasing.

I got a good laugh out of a realtor's comments on today's market condition. This is a direct quote from an email -

"So I thought "what would I say today about the Victoria Real Estate Market if someone asked"?

My comments would be that we have a balanced market where we are indeed selling at the rate of 1 SALE to 5 LISTINGS or 20% success ratio!!! In Vancouver and Lower mainland the ratio is 1 Sale to 10 LISTINGS or 10%!!

So Victoria is still quite active and prices are staple - a balanced market!"

Go figure!

May Sales Numbers

2008-06-03T19:29:00.000-07:00

Sorry folks. No time. Here's my contribution.

May sales numbers according to the VREB.

CMHC "Housing Now" for April

2008-05-31T20:45:00.000-07:00

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" report for April for Greater Victoria.

There are currently 4618 active property listings, approximately 550 more than 1 month ago.

May 24 Week Ending Stats

2008-05-24T11:48:00.001-07:00

We live in some crazy times, and they keep getting crazier.

Oil hit $135 a barrel this week, and will go higher. Goldman Sachs is thinking $200 / barrel within 2 years.

Another Canadian bank, RBC, is proclaiming that the Canadian housing boom is over. We all know Alberta's market is slumping and Canada's is slowing dramatically. There are 17286 properties for sale in Greater Vancouver. There is an 11.2 month supply of homes in the US.

Victoria, of course, is no different. Sales have slowed. Inventory doesn't stop rising. Right now, we are at 4522 properties for sale in Greater Victoria.

On the MLS, today we have 154 more SFH listed than one month ago, 170 more condos, and actually 5 fewer townhomes. 2 out of 3 ain't bad!

In case anyone is interested, CMHC has released their 2nd quarter housing market outlook for Victoria.

Oh yeah, thanks for visiting this site and making it an active forum for comments. Let's remember to keep the comments civil and focused more on real estate. Thanks.

April Housing Starts

2008-05-09T14:59:00.000-07:00

CMHC's release of April housing starts for Vancouver Island can be found here. Rising housing inventory shows no sign of slowing down.

April Townhome Sales Graphs

2008-05-05T19:07:00.000-07:00

Just a couple of graphs showing townhome sales numbers and median sales prices over the previous years.

April Sales Numbers

2008-05-01T20:57:00.001-07:00

I see that discussion has already started on April's sales numbers, as published by the VREB. Listings are up, sales numbers are down. I think that the average sales price for this past month is a moot point. As long as inventory rises and quantity of sales decreases, we move into, if we aren't already there, a buyer's market. Prices then start to decrease. Sellers are still holding out at this point because they see their neighbour sell their house for near asking price, yet they don't see the five other neighbours that aren't selling their homes.

What I don't understand is this - I see sales prices via a realtor's PCS. Why are people buying homes for the asking price? If you are in the market for buying - start lowballing!!!

I'm also quite surprised at the number of $1+ million sales. I thought that the smart money was those who had money. Obviously not.

Anyways, here are my charts. More to follow.

April 26 Week Ending Stats

2008-04-26T09:36:00.000-07:00

Inventory is continuing to rise, however, not at the pace that it was in March. According to this realtor's website, there are currently 4070 active listings in Greater Victoria. This is around 200 more than at the end of March. In comparison, the month of March saw an increase of around 350 listings on their website.

Today, there are 137 more SFH listings on MLS than on the 29th of March. The greatest increase in listings has been for SFH priced higher than $700k. There have been comments on the incredible number of listings with asking prices higher than $1 million. Today, there are 248 of such listings. Crazy!

There are 20 more townhomes listed today than there were on March 29. The number of condos listed is basically unchanged.

I have to pick on this one $1 million+ listings. MLS#240724. Seriously, what are these people smoking? $1049000 for this POS? Yeah right!

March Condo Sales Graphs

2008-04-21T20:06:00.001-07:00

The Housing Boom is Officially Over!

2008-04-17T16:28:00.000-07:00

Thanks to anonymous for mentioning this occasion on Craigslist.

Yes, according to The Globe and Mail, and specifically Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., the housing boom in Canada is now officially over. First quarter statistics are what helped him come to that conclusion.

Certainly, we are seeing this in Victoria. Inventory is ballooning and sales are the lowest in years.

Will we follow in the footsteps of our neighbours south of the border? Perhaps. Perhaps not. But the market is definitely not what it was in the previous 2 or 3 years.

Discuss away!

March SFH Sales Graphs

2008-04-06T17:24:00.000-07:00

A picture is worth a thousand words...

March Sales Numbers

2008-04-01T21:24:00.000-07:00

The Victoria Real Estate Board has posted March's sales numbers. Commentary on the numbers started in the last post. Please do continue. It looks to me like this year is going to the bears.

Following are SFH, condo, and townhome graphs for Greater Victoria. More are to follow in the coming days.

Has the market turned?

2008-03-29T15:29:00.000-07:00

I'm glad to see that this blog keeps going even when I'm absent - just like an energizer bunny!

FYI, we haven't bought, we haven't even been to a mortgage broker. In fact, I think we have decided to stay put for the time being. We'll make it work where we are!

It does appear that the market may have turned over the past 1-2 months. Listings are rocketing upwards, sales "appear" to be really low and slow. Realtors are saying that the market has "stabilized", some are even recommending to not rush into anything. People are talking about the slowing of the market, and friends are advising friends to be careful when looking at purchasing. These are all people that I think were very positive on the market 6 months ago.

Right now, there are 3888 active listings. February 29th there were 3526 active listings. The VREB always seems to state listings in a month to be lower that on this realtor's website. Regardless, VREB should have the active listings number for March to be around 350 higher than February's. That would put their listings at around 3660. This blows away the peak of listings from last year (June - around 3550) and we are only in March! If the number of sales is as low as it appears to be, March's numbers will be very interesting! We'll see how Tony Joe spins this month's numbers.

Listings of SFH priced over $700k is nearly bursting off my chart! There are currently more than 200 SFH listed with an asking price of $1 million or higher. Let's see, if there are 10 sales in that price range, we'd have 20 months supply of million dollars homes. Good grief!

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" report for Victoria for February.

February Housing Starts

2008-03-10T20:58:00.000-07:00

CMHC has released February's housing starts numbers.

Thus far this year, housing starts are down from 2007. However, we are still at a record number of homes under construction.

What will Victoria's unemployment rate be when the number of homes under construction moves lower to normal levels ( 1/4 of today's homes under construction)????

February Sales Numbers

2008-03-03T20:22:00.000-08:00

The Victoria Real Estate Board has released their sales numbers for February. Discussion has started in the comments of the previous post. Please feel free to continue commenting on this post.

In comparison to February 2007, sales are down, prices are up, and listings are up. In comparison to January 2008, sales are up, prices are down, listings are up. The last time that Greater Victoria has seen two consecutive months of single family home price decreases was between June and August 2006. SFH average price has decreased 6% since it's peak in December 2007.

Average condo price has pretty much been horizontal since November 2006.

Average townhome price is off big-time from it's peak in November 2007.

I'd love to provide some graphs, but unfortunately, about 2 weeks ago I had a horrendous case of spyware on my computer and was forced to format my hard drive. I haven't located my copy of Excel as of yet. Once I do, the graphs will be back!

Why Not Rent?

2008-02-26T21:37:00.000-08:00

Here's a challenge, perhaps a dare. Find me a home to rent. It needs to be in View Royal, Langford, Colwood, Mill Bay, Shawnigan, maybe Cobble Hill. It must have 3 bedrooms up, 3 bedrooms (or 2 bedrooms and den / office) down (down is a suite). They must be separate living spaces. The lower suite must be above ground, with minimum 8 foot ceilings and large windows. The house must have a garage and a decent sized yard. The house must be available to rent April 1st or later.

All this for $2500 a month.

If you can find me this house, I will seriously consider renting it. I don't think it exists. I'd love to be wrong.

Why Rent?

2008-02-23T10:03:00.000-08:00

I need to vent a little.

Unfortunately, the time has come for my wife and I to find a new rental. Reasons being that she works a couple days a week in Duncan, and we live south end of Victoria, so the commute is long, costly, and I don't really like her driving the Malahat so often (I'm a bit of a worry-wart). Also, we are hoping that in the next year or two, we will require more space, as in another bedroom. And so, we are looking for a 2 bedroom and den or 3 bedroom rental that is west of View Royal.

Rentals of that sort are not easily come by! And the prices! Yikes! Are any of you looking for the same thing these days? Unbelievable!

Three-quarters of available rentals are 1 or 2 bedroom. A 3 bedroom rental will be either an entire house, or the upper portion (there are a few 3 bedroom lower rentals, but I imagine them to be dungeons.) Monthly rent for a 3 bedroom does go as low as $1100 / month, but most are more that $1400 / month, the average probably being around $1800 / month. A lot of those don't meet our location criteria.

I'm just tired of renting. Tired of fighting for parking spots. Tired of our minuscule little kitchen. Tired of living in basements. Tired of trying to find a rental for one month from now because our rental agreement states we must give one month notice, yet 90% of all the rentals available are available immediately. Tired of not putting our roots down anywhere.

You guys had better keep me on the straight and narrow. I'm on the verge of going to the bank to see what we what size of mortgage we may qualify for. I feel like we are getting close to the point where for the sake of personal happiness, we may go against better judgement.

Deception Part 2

2008-02-17T13:36:00.000-08:00

Remember June last year? I ranted over the deceptive scheme being used to sell the Reflections development in Langford. Advertised was a purchase plan for a $335k condo with zero down for $995 per month. Not even in the small print did the ad say that your payments would double after one year.

Well, correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like Peter Gaby is up to his deceptive ways again this year. This time the development is The Aspen in View Royal. He's advertising a 3 bedroom condo (also 1 bedroom and 2 bedrooms for less) for $1034 per month, with 10% down, 40 year amortization, and a discounted variable rate of 5.25%. At least, the ad does mention that the scheme is "cash back to offset payments over 12 months".

The least expensive 3 bedroom condo in that development has an asking price of $409900. After putting 10% down, your mortgage would be $368910. 40 year amortization, 5.25% rate, gives you a monthly payment of $1826.40.

This year, I'm not as floored over this scheme as I was last year. Truthfully, I'm not surprised. I guess I'm getting jaded.

Bold Advertising

2008-02-09T10:57:00.000-08:00

I thought today's Tuscany Village ad in the TC was quite bold, considering that RE in Victoria always only goes up. I wonder how choked other developer's are with this ad. Those poor folks who bought years ago for list price - they must be kicking themselves. If you are one of them, don't worry, there will be others in your shoes in the future!

Housing inventory continues to climb. There are 122 more properties for sale since my last posting on January 27. That includes 56 more condos, 57 more SFH, 2 more townhomes. The last 7 must be lots, or trailers, or some other category. Looking at the SFH graph, it's easy to see that inventory is rising faster this year than last.

January 26 Week Ending Stats

2008-01-27T20:30:00.000-08:00

No surprises this week. The number of properties listed on MLS continues to grow. 65 more condos listed this week than last, 12 more townhomes, and 25 more SFH.

January 19

2008-01-20T16:43:00.000-08:00

Inventory of homes in Greater Victoria is increasing quite rapidly this year. In the past two weeks, there's been an increase of 119 SFH listed on MLS. Since January 7, there's been an increase of 423 active listings in the region. Homes are still selling, but new listings are certainly outpacing the sales (also see what's happening in Vancouver!)

A couple things of note:
- It's nice to see that Canada has their own version of Lawrence Yun and David Lehreah - Gregory Klump! Check this guy out and what he has to say!

- Our favourite condo development gone bad, Tuscany Village, had a couple of interesting sales last year. According to BC Assessments, unit 418 - 1620 McKenzie Ave is assessed at $476000 and sold for $339900 on October 5. Unit 419 - 1620 McKenzie is assessed at $461000 and sold for $346625 on October 9. How would you like to be the person who bought unit 411 - 1620 McKenzie Ave, assessed for $449000, but you paid $500000 (June 27)!!!

- Another Tuscany note, unit 413 - 1620 McKenzie had an asking price of $510195 in May. Today, it is $419900 (MLS#237359). I thought real estate always went up! If you're in the market for a condo, this is the place to make a low ball offer.

- Is the Radius condo / commercial development the next Tuscany Village??? This link from the TC used to work. No longer for me. Anyways, here was the beginning...

Costs stall Radius project
Carolyn Heiman, Times Colonist
Published: Saturday, January 12, 2008
Skyrocketing construction costs, which some experts say are rising 1.5 per cent a month, have temporarily stalled work on the $160-million Radius project, says the developer.
But John Schucht of Waywell Development said the project -- kitty-corner to the Save-on-Foods Memorial Centre -- will resume after a reassessment of construction costs in the region, which he described as "runaway."
Schucht said a construction hiatus was planned for the Christmas holiday but instead of resuming on Jan. 7, the break will be longer. He declined to say how much longer.

2008 Poll Results

2008-01-09T18:57:00.000-08:00

Very interesting results from this last week's polls. Of course, it wasn't very scientific. But, that's ok. Here they are...

53% (33 of 62) of you are pessimistic about 2008. I'm sorry to hear that. Pray tell...

73% (53 of 72) believe that Victoria's average SFH selling price will be lower in 2008 than 2007. Let's hope so.

52% (36 of 69) think that Canada's economy will go into recession in 2008. Are you the pessimistic ones?

95% (66 of 69) know that the U.S. economy will go into recession this year.

78% (54 of 69) think that the loonie will remain above par with the greenback. This may hasten our recession.

33% (22 of 65) think oil will hit $100 this year. So far, you're right.
23% (15 of 65) think $110.
29% (19 of 65) think $120. Hmm...
13% (9 of 65) are shooting for the stars - $150. Or maybe not. Did you all vote late in the polls?

62% (39 of 62) believe that we'll be going to the federal polls this year.

92% (61 of 66) think that the oval office will be headed by a democrat. Not very surprising.

Great! Thanks for taking part. Feel free to comment on the results.

December Sales Numbers

2008-01-06T20:02:00.000-08:00

I'm a little late on this one. I'm glad it's getting discussed in the previous posts' comments. Thus, I won't comment much here on the December numbers. However, I will throw out the graphs.

Single family home sales for the past three years. Look at the regional sales prices on the VREB website. Those million dollar SFH sales had to have only been in Oak Bay, Saanich East, and Victoria (maybe one in North Saanich). The other regions, they are either below or only marginally above the 6 month average.

Condo sales.

Townhome sales.

Finally, months of inventory for all properties. Where is it going to go from here?

The football game has finally ended. Thank goodness! The Bulls kicker made a field goal. A Bears player made a late hit on the kicker, and a side clearing brawl ensued. Those Bears are sore losers! I'm just kidding. I'm just a bitter renter. Final score, Bulls 32, Bears 19.

Happy New Year!

2008-01-01T09:02:00.000-08:00

A new year has begun. For some, this means overcoming a hangover, others, time to reflect, speculate, or make goals for the next 366 days. I'm not a believer in resolutions. However, it is nice to start a new year in order to make statements like "I haven't had a smoke this year" or "The Canucks haven't lost this year". Those statements often don't last very long.

What will 2008 bring? I'm pretty excited - I think it will be a very interesting year. I feel that there is much at the tipping point. Governments, economies, real estate, beer prices. Regarding RE, I'd be along the lines of HHV's predictions. Victoria has peaked, but without the help of a major external influence, will not crash this year.

I thought it would be interesting to get all of your takes on what is in store for 2008. I've created a few polls on the side - please do place your votes. And as usual, comment away. I always enjoy reading them!

CMHC "Housing Now" Report for November

2007-12-27T19:08:00.000-08:00

The November edition of CMHC's "Housing Now" report for Victoria is now available.

Highlights include (the usual):
- robust construction activity.
- low unemployment.
- a slowing in new home starts.

CMHC's construction volume graph changed this month. Last month, construction volume was displayed as a total for Greater Victoria. This month, it's a bar graph for the different regions (figure 1). Perhaps the change is due to the fact that the old graph was downright scary, as under construction numbers are at record highs, and continue increasing.

If Victoria's construction volume dropped from today's number of 3296 units under construction, to historical norms, around 1000 units under construction, I wonder what the city's unemployment level would be. What if construction dropped to 1990's levels?

But of course, that will never happen. Everyone wants to live here and housing will never go down.

Merry Christmas!

2007-12-22T10:26:00.000-08:00

Merry Christmas to you all, God bless, and please take time to reflect and enjoy family and friends over the next couple days!

I'll try to get one more post in before the new year, hoping to spark conversation on what 2008 will bring. I've had to take a small hiatus from the blog to study for a career-related challenge exam this past week. Thanks for keeping up the commentary. I do enjoy taking time to read what is on everyones' mind.

On a RE note, we can all sleep well this Christmas knowing that Victoria's and VI's real estate market will never go down, because our economy will never slow down, at least according to the article in today's TC! Is it arrogance, naivety, or pure deceit to say and think that with all that is going on in Canada, North America, and the World, that we truly are an island and that nothing affects us? I wonder how such opinions would change if Victoria wasn't on an island, but rather the mainland. I'm sure some other bogus argument would be found.

The number of listings on MLS.ca has rapidly decreased for SFH the past couple weeks. For condos and townhomes, it's a different story. The number of condo listings continues to be very high. This will be due to the developments around town.

Finally, I just thought I'd post a couple of funny pictures I found while browsing Google for a Christmas picture. I hope they don't offend anyone. Merry Christmas!

December 8 Week Ending Stats

2007-12-08T18:00:00.000-08:00

The quantity of SFH listings on the MLS continues to trend downward as we approach Christmas. There are 63 fewer SFH listed this Saturday than last.

Condo listings are trending down also, but not as quickly. There are 27 fewer condos listed today. Townhomes listings are bucking the trend. There is 1 more listing today than last Saturday.

You Know the Local RE Market is HOT when...

2007-12-06T19:56:00.000-08:00

Kinetic Construction Ltd. is suing Tuscany Village Holding Ltd. for $2,245,982. (Business Examiner Vancouver Island Edition, Dec.3 - Dec16, Who's Suing Whom)

Want a cheap condo? It might be a good time to go and low-ball Tuscany Village!

November Sales Numbers

2007-12-03T17:34:00.000-08:00

VREB has posted November's sales numbers. I was close on my estimates! Except for the average townhome price, the numbers don't surprise me. Bev McIvor's two bits have changed from "it’s important to note that nearly a third of single family homes last month sold for under $425,000" this last summer to "The high demand and robust prices show continued strong consumer confidence in the market" this fall. Also, I got a flyer in the mail today from "Condo Conroy" stating "There are FAR fewer units on the market right now than there was last year..." I call bullsh**.

It appears that stuff is still selling. The number that speaks the most to me is 623 sales. That is 9% more than last November, and more than November 2005. The market does still have legs. I'm beginning to think it will take something big to knock those legs out from under it.

It was a bullish month. The Bulls scored a field goal. Score is Bulls 29, Bears 19.

December 1 Week Ending Stats

2007-12-01T17:58:00.000-08:00

The number of listings of homes of all types continues to decline. This can be attributed to the fact that it's only 24 days till Christmas!

From two weeks, there are
- 12 fewer condos listed on MLS.ca
- 9 fewer townhomes
- 53 fewer SFH

The decline in listings of SFH this year does not appear to be as steep as last year.

For November's VREB stats, I'm guessing active listings to have decreased to around 3200. This would be very near to last year's active listings for November. As for November's sales and prices, really, I have no idea. For fun, let's say 600 sales, SFH average price up from October, condo and townhome average down.

CMHC "Housing Now" Report for October

2007-12-01T17:50:00.001-08:00

CMHC has released their October "Housing Now" report for Victoria.

There's always next year...

2007-11-25T19:46:00.000-08:00

It's tough watching your team lose the big game. But hey, they were big-time underdogs, and did better than I expected. Thanks Bombers, for the run this year, and better luck next year!

Back to real estate. Tell me, if the market is so hot, as according to the VREB, are there ads in the TC like the following for developments that are complete or nearly complete. Shouldn't they be sold out?!?

Regional SFH Numbers

2007-11-19T18:09:00.000-08:00

First of all, what a great couple of football games yesterday! Being from the prairies, I couldn't be happier! Winnipeg vs. Regina in the Grey Cup! Perhaps the CFL's greatest rivalry. Sunday's game should be a real barn-burner!

Back to real estate, following are graphs of sales numbers and median selling prices for Victoria, Saanich, Oak Bay, Esquimalt, and Langford. A picture is worth a thousand words, so that's all from me.

Victoria

Saanich

Oak Bay

Esquimalt

Langford

November 17 Week Ending Stats

2007-11-17T11:32:00.000-08:00

It's been a couple weeks since I posted week ending stats (to be exact, October 27 was the last). Based on MLS.ca, here is what I've seen since then.

- There are 56 fewer SFH listed. The largest drop in listings is in the $400k to $500k price range (a drop of 22 listings - from 176 to 154)
- There are 20 more condos listed.
- There are 14 more townhomes listed.

Comparing the number of SFH listings this year to last year, even with the decreasing numbers, they don't appear to be dropping as fast. In fact, in the $500k to $600k range, the number of SFH listings has been flat since early August. However, last year on this weekend, there were 1073 SFH listed. Today, 884 listed. The market for SFH under $500k is still very tight.

On a side note, WOW!, unanimous decision on the CMHC. Mohican has started a new blog discussing dissolving the CMHC. Check it out.

Lest We Forget...

2007-11-09T07:31:00.000-08:00

Thank a veteran this weekend for the sacrifice they made for our freedoms today. Have a great Remembrance Day Weekend!

Some superficial topics to consider
- Stats Canada New Housing Price Index
- CMHC housing starts for October
- City of Victoria's new downtown plans

CMHC Q4 Housing Market Outlook

2007-11-05T20:50:00.000-08:00

I'm sorry to interrupt the ongoing commentary. I just wanted to point out that CMHC has released their 4th quarter housing market outlook for Victoria. You can read it here.

Highlights according to CMHC are:
- Victoria's housing industry robust, growth spurred by strong economy.
- Resale market sales to edge down, prices to rise slowly.
- New homebuilding will level off in 2008.
- New home prices to rise.
- Rental vacancies will remain low.

I think I've heard that all before.

October Sales Numbers

2007-11-01T17:44:00.000-07:00

VREB has released the October sales numbers. H/T to Roger for beating me to the punch for commentary and review. You can read it over at HHV.

Single family home sales and median prices over the past 3 years in Greater Victoria.

Condo sales and median sales prices.

Townhome sales and median sales prices.

Draw your own conclusions. I think it's started. Looks like a bearish month. I'm awarding a touchdown to the Bears. And wait! What's that? HHV's attempting a two point convert! The pass is up, ball's in the air... and... knocked down by the defender! Sorry HHV. I just couldn't do it. The score is now Bulls 26, Bears 19.

CMHC "Housing Now" Report for September

2007-10-31T20:19:00.000-07:00

CMHC has released their September 2007 edition of "Housing Now" for Victoria. It can be viewed here.

Highlights include:
- 17.8% fewer starts in September 2007 versus September 2006.
- 21.9% more units under construction this September versus last.

There was a significant average price increase between August and September.

The poll on the sidebar has produced interesting, yet not surprising, results. Most readers of this blog are bearish on real estate, but there are some bulls out there. I think that 2008 will be a critical year for real estate prices. If there are no price declines next year, I will probably start to believe that this time it is different.

October 27 Week Ending Stats

2007-10-27T15:17:00.000-07:00

The number of listings on MLS.ca is down this Saturday in comparison to last Saturday. There are 22 fewer SFH, 11 fewer townhomes, and 17 fewer condos.

I'm gonna go out on a limb this week. I'm calling Victoria's average SFH sale price in September ($584193) as the peak average price for Victoria for the next couple years. With winter coming, what's going on in the U.S. and Alberta, and rising mortgage rates, I think we've hit the top. April 2008 will be the first time since March 2007 that Victoria has a year over year decrease in average SFH price. Average monthly prices for the summer of 2008 will be lower than the summer of 2007.

Of course, I am 100% amateur, and have nothing riding on this prediction (aside from house prices moving further from my affordability level if I'm wrong). Put only as much stock into this as you want.

As I write, I have friends bidding on a house in Victoria. As strongly as I feel, I try not to influence their decision. If I am wrong, and they hold back because of me, thus falling further behind the rising prices, I'm partially responsible. I don't want to be. Everyone needs to be responsible for their own decisions. If you are comfortable with the numbers, go ahead and seal the deal. I think that good things will come to those who wait.

Update: My friends bidding on the house did not get it. Reason being - after offers were supposed to be in, the selling realtor continued to show the house, and tell new interested parties what the current high offer was. It's pretty easy to place the highest offer when you know what second place will be. The ethics of some in the realtor profession continue to disappoint me.

October 20 Week Ending Stats

2007-10-20T11:41:00.000-07:00

SFH listings on MLS are down slightly this week. Here's a new graph for perspective on how the SFH market has changed from one year ago. I'll probably continue to graph SFH listings numbers in this format from now on.

Condo listings continue to rise. 1243 condos listed on MLS this morning. There were 1214 last Saturday, 1181 two weeks ago, 1138 three weeks ago. This rise in condos listings will put the VREB month end active listings numbers above September 2007 and above October 2006. I think we may actually come close to our peak listings from June of this year. This would put the market at six months of inventory.

In the circle of people I know, a few of them have mentioned that they think the market is softening, and are debating on putting their homes up for sale. They don't need to sell, but if they can get such and such a price, they would sell. That's fine for them, but I don't think that approach is selling homes today. A home in Victoria needs to be very competitively priced to sell quickly. This appears to also apply to new condo and townhome developments.

Take Casa Bella townhomes in Langford in comparison to the townhomes of Reflections, The Pearl on Hillside, and Richmond Gate. Casa Bella has sold like hotcakes, the others are not, to say the least. Casa Bella homes are the same size or larger, and priced less than the others. It doesn't surprise me that they have essentially sold out (21 - three bedroom units). Reflections has not sold one townhome, The Pearl has sold 2 of their 5, Richond Gate has sold 2 of their 6.

I know this sounds like a plug for Casa Bella. It's not intended to be. I think they represented value for your money compared to others. That's what it takes to sell in today's market.

I wonder how long the developers (or whoever put the initial investment forward) of Tuscany Village, Richmond Gate, The Breakwater, The Julia, and others, can hold out before we see some real price decreases.

What a relief!

2007-10-18T18:45:00.000-07:00

Phew! What a relief! Boy, I'll be able to sleep good tonight!

Why, you ask? Well, it's because Re/Max has released their 2008 housing market forecast. I'm now ready to jump on board and buy the biggest house I possibly can. This is because it's going to rise in value by 5% next year. That's more than my savings account is getting! Besides, 5% of $500000 is a gain of $25000. Yippee, our real estate market has legs! And this is despite everything that is happening around us!

Seriously, why is any stock given to reports like this. The TC of course eats it up. Even if by fluke they are right, it's a totally biased report. It's totally useless. If even CMHC's numbers are suspect, how can a real estate firms' report be given any validation?

Sorry about the lack of blogging these days. I think I've hit the October doldrums. No, I've had those for a while. Real estate is getting a little boring. I want to see some action. Lets' see some price drops, crashes, and other signs of desperation. I don't want to see people get hurt, but my patience is growing thin.

October 13 Week Ending Stats

2007-10-13T09:58:00.000-07:00

The number of condo listings on MLS.ca for Greater Victoria was significantly up again this week. From reading the daily hotsheets, the increase appears to have been partially caused by the additional listings from the new Radius residential project. The number of two bedroom condos available on MLS has increased by 57 in two weeks.

SFH listed on MLS is up by 7 this week, but the total number is still down from previous weeks. Today, there are two SFH listed for under $300k. One year ago, on October 14, there were 33. Today, there are 83 SFH listed for between $300k and $400k. One year ago, 227.

August New Housing Price Index

2007-10-11T19:43:00.001-07:00

Stats Canada has release the New Housing Price Index for August.

The price of a new home in Victoria rose 0.4% between August 2006 and August 2007. Of the cities surveyed, this was the third smallest increase. Windsor (-2.8%) and Charlottetown (0.2%) lead the way. Canada as a whole had an increase of 6.5%.

September Housing Starts

2007-10-09T19:25:00.000-07:00

CMHC has released the housing starts numbers for September. For Victoria, more starts than in August, less than September 2006, fewer year to date in 2007 than 2006. Canada-wide, it was big news.

A sizzling condominium market propelled Canadian housing starts in September to their highest level since 1978, a 19.6 percent monthly jump, which well exceeded analysts' expectations.

Perhaps I'm naive, but I don't quite get it. The housing market in the U.S. is officially in the tank. 50/50 chance of recession there. Good chance we follow. Our population growth isn't exactly setting land speed records. Is it just plain cool to have two or three properties under your belt? Are Canadians still speculating? Who's buying or going to buy all these properties???

October 6 Week Ending Stats

2007-10-06T11:19:00.000-07:00

MLS listings were up and down this week. There are 43 more condo listings today than there were last Saturday. I believe this is largely due to the release of units at the new Radius development. Kudos to them for listing on MLS. This will increase the month end inventory numbers, and thus give a truer picture of the number of homes that are for sale, unlike those condo developments that have hundreds of units for sale, but their inventory numbers are not taken into account by the VREB because they are not listed on MLS. Shame on them.

Single family home listings are down by 27 this week. Victoria is definitely not having the run-up in SFH inventory like cities in Alberta are. This leads me to think that SFH in Victoria are built for home-dwellers, not speculators. Otherwise, we should be seeing more of a rush to the exit, as evidenced in Alberta. Barring external forces, the SFH market should remain steady for a while to come. I wouldn't say the same for the condo market.

I meant to post this earlier in the week. There was an interesting article in Macleans regarding a possible coming recession, titled "Can you say recession?" Hat tip to whoever pointed it out to me - I wish I could remember. If you have the time, give it a read.

September Sales Numbers

2007-10-01T19:04:00.000-07:00

I've now officially been forever priced out of the market!

Just kidding - that happened a long time ago!

Well, September numbers are out. My guesses were close. Total sales = 632. Total inventory = 3381 listings. Average prices up month over month in every category. Average prices up year over year everywhere. It's very reassuring that "There were 17 single family home sales of over $1 million and this had a significant impact on the overall average. Nearly a quarter of all single family homes sold for less than $425,000." Thank goodness for that!

Due to a shortness of time this evening, I'm gonna let the graphs do the talking.

Condo sales graph.

Townhome sales graph.

Single Family home sales graph.

Months of inventory graph.
Oh yeah, 3 points for the Bears. It's the end of the 3rd quarter. Bulls 26 Bears 13.

September 29 Week Ending Stats

2007-09-29T11:12:00.000-07:00

There are 3 more single family homes, 13 more condos, and 7 more townhomes listed on MLS.ca this Saturday over last.

Interestingly, for SFH, the only price ranges that have a decrease in listings today are those priced under $300k and over $700k.

Let's dissect the graph of the number of SFH listings in a price range as a percentage of the whole. Over the past year, the percentage of listings between $500k and $700k has been quite flat. The percentage of listings of homes priced over $700k is nearly a mirror image of the percentage of home priced between $300k - $400k and $400k - $500k. The gradual down slope of homes priced between $300k and $500k has levelled off this past month, which leads me to wonder whether external factors (credit crunch, American MSM, affordability) are having an effect on the lower priced homes. Sales plus delists are not exceeding new listings. Perhaps this is the start of things.

Case and point - a friend was pondering whether to get into the market. About three weeks ago, her realtor pointed out MLS#235514. The house was priced at $399000. In today's hot market, the house was going to sell that weekend. It's three weeks later, the house has not sold, and has had two price reductions, with it now sitting at $379000. How hot is this market? It's definitely cooling.

The Victoria Real Estate Board's September numbers should come out early next week. They should be interesting, but I'm not losing sleep over them. I'm guessing a decrease in SFH average price, an increase in condo and townhome average price. Listings will be up slightly to just over 3400, sales will be between 750 and 800, well above last year. What's your guess?

CMHC "Housing Now" Report for August

2007-09-27T18:24:00.000-07:00

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" report for August for Victoria.

Highlights include
- 70.6% decrease in starts between August 2006 and August 2007.
- 2% decrease in starts year to date from 2006.
- 31.6% increase in units under construction between August 2006 and August 2007.
- Langford (pop. 22500) has 799 units under construction.
- Saanich (pop. 108000) has 536 units under construction.
- Oak Bay has 15 units under construction.

Those last three points aren't really highlights, I just found them to be interesting.

CMHC's average selling price for SFH dropped for the second straight month. The difference between CMHC's average price, which doesn't include waterfront, acreage, duplex, and manufactured home sales, and VREB's average price is very evident for August. The sale of a $5million home certainly skews the average. That's why I believe that median sales price is a better indicator.

September 22 Week Ending Stats

2007-09-23T16:24:00.000-07:00

The increase in listings of SFH on MLS.ca that we saw last week disappeared this week. There were 31 fewer SFH listed this Saturday than last Saturday. The largest decrease was between $400k and $600k. 29 fewer homes in that price range. Homes priced above $700k, there are 5 more homes listed.

Big Rate Cut

2007-09-18T19:48:00.000-07:00

As everyone has heard, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut the overnight lending rate by 50 basis points, or 0.5%. The experts were somewhat surprised. I am surprised that they were surprised. Yet, their response was exactly what I had heard it would be, if there was a cut of that size. The experts are afraid of what lies ahead.

What does lie ahead? What does it bring for me and my family, the city and province I live in, and for Canada?

A person could theorize and hypothesize until the cows come home. Even with that, they could still not get it right. If any one person could predict what was going to happen, well, they'd be very rich. Perhaps that is why statements from Warren Buffet and the likes are well heeded.

I have no idea. That's why I started this blog. But here's what I could possibly see. Rate cut in the U.S. - U.S. dollar drops - CAN$ rises - CAN exports continue to fall (except oil) - things slow even further in export reliant regions of CAN - CAN economy slows - rate cuts in CAN - housing market????

I'm no expert. What do you think? Where will B.C.'s and Canada's economies be in 1 year from now? 5 years from now?

September 15 Week Ending Stats

2007-09-16T16:51:00.000-07:00

The number of listings available on MLS.ca for Greater Victoria increased this past week. This includes
- 39 more condos.
- 3 more townhomes.
- 32 more SFH.

The largest increase in listings of SFH by price breakdown was in the $300k to $400k range. There are 10 more houses on MLS.ca in this price range this week.

Even with the increase in SFH listings, the pie chart breakdown is still very top heavy.

I think the increase in listings this past week is the beginning of the traditional run-up of inventory in the fall months. With the associated decrease in sales during fall, the months supply of inventory will increase. The September sales numbers will be very interesting.

Slow Growth, Cool Market

2007-09-14T21:23:00.000-07:00

Front page of today's TC had articles regarding Victoria's economic growth and real estate market. HouseHuntVictoria has insight on the related article in The Globe and Mail.

Victoria's economic growth to slow - rather significantly as well. 2006 had growth pegged at 3.7%. 2007 is forecasted at 2.8%.

Real estate market expected to cool over the long term - Victoria's current market is 10% above trend, according to Scotia Economics' Adrienne Warren. Quote from Cameron Muir "... it is reasonable to expect that when this current cycle is over that home prices will moderate for a while in order to give household incomes a chance to catch up with the pricing regime."

Does this mean that I may not be priced out forever?! Is today maybe not the best time to buy? Perhaps the future is better than the present for getting into the market. I'm surprised by Mr. Muir's statement. He may be starting to see the light.

July New Housing Price Index

2007-09-11T20:27:00.000-07:00

Statistics Canada has released the New Housing Price Index for July.

Once again, Victoria is showing some of the slowest month over month and year over year new house price gains. For the period of July 2006 to July 2007, Victoria had a 1.1% change in the new house price index. Tops was Saskatoon at 51.4%.

"For Canada, the pace of growth in new housing prices slowed for the 11th consecutive month in July. It went from 7.8% in June to 7.7% in July.

Saskatoon set a record high year-over-year increase for the fifth consecutive month. Prices in Winnipeg were 15.7% higher than in July 2006 in the wake of land shortages and development costs. New housing prices in Edmonton continued to increase at a fast pace with a year-over-year increase of 38.4%, due to hikes in land values from developers."

Go figure.

August Housing Starts

2007-09-11T20:17:00.000-07:00

CMHC's housing starts report showed significant decreases in month over month and year over year housing starts for Greater Victoria. August 2007 had 110 housings starts. In comparison, July 2007 had 236 and August 2006 had 374. The number of housing starts for the year to date has 2007 only slightly behind 2006.

Does this signal anything? Is construction slowing down? I don't believe that one slow month represents a trend. With any new project coming online, next month's starts could be equally impressively high.

September 8 Week Ending Stats

2007-09-08T17:11:00.000-07:00

It's September. Fall is coming, the kids are back in school, and housing inventory should start to increase as the number of sales continues decreasing.

There was a slight SFH inventory increase this past week. The biggest changes are 5 fewer homes priced between $300k and $400k and 7 more homes priced between $500k and $600k. As of today, 72% of all single family homes listed on MLS.ca have an asking price of $500000 or higher.

I know this isn't a Calgary or Alberta housing market blog, but I love watching the average sale price posted on CREB's website drop. Calgary's average sale price has gone from $491k on August 23 (the peak was around $507k) to $477.5k today. That's nearly $14k in 16 days! I wonder how many Albertans will be scurrying to purchase our properties as their bubble bursts!

August Sales Numbers

2007-09-04T19:21:00.000-07:00

HHV and Roger beat me to the punch for commentary on the VREB's release of the August sales numbers. Check out their blogs for some great insight.

All that's left is for me to bore you with some graphs, and an update to the football score.

Median single family home prices. Ouch, how the median in Victoria is dropping. The rest of the Capital Region District is really having to take up the slack.

Looking at sales of SFH in the past two years, the number of sales is higher this year. Median price appreciation continues at double digit or high single digit gains.

Condo sales numbers continue to be strong. However, the median price appreciation has been marginal the past couple of months.

This summer has been hot for sales of townhomes in Greater Victoria. The median sales price has been flat the past four months.

And finally, the Bears have scored a touchdown this month. The average sales price for condos and townhomes were lower than the six month rolling average. Without the sale of the $5million+ home in Oak Bay, average price of SFH would also have been lower than the six month average. Score: Bulls 26 Bears 10.

September 1 Week Ending Stats

2007-09-01T08:36:00.000-07:00

Short entry today. SFH inventory on MLS.ca up slightly this past week. Townhome and condo inventory down slightly.

Tuesday should bring us August sales numbers. I'm guessing active listings will decrease to between 3300 and 3200 for the month. MLS sales to be above last year - between 750 and 800. Generally, I think sales prices will be down a little, not much. Any other guesses or predictions?

CMHC "Housing Now" Report for July

2007-08-30T22:28:00.000-07:00

First things first, for VG, here's the front page of the Edmonton Sun from earlier this week.

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" report for July. Housing starts for July 2007 were up 116.5% from July 2006. Year to date, starts are 18.9% higher in 2007.

Housing units under construction has the wow factor. There are 3278 housing units currently under construction in Greater Victoria. This is 52% higher than last July. Of that number, 2252 of those units are condos!

CMHC's average SFH selling price dropped slightly from June to July. Looking at their sales-to-active listings ratio, it appears to still be a sellers market. The townhome and condos markets are not quite as hot as the SFH market. Average selling price showed a month-over-month drop for both townhomes and condos.

Alberta's Wealth Rollercoaster

2007-08-28T20:35:00.000-07:00

Hat tip to anonymous at 5:21pm. How do like the front page of the Edmonton Sun today? I dare say, it will be a cold day you-know-where before the local media puts a title like this on their front page!

The whole article can be found here. Average sale price in Calgary continues to drop as well.

Remember buddy here who bought two condos at Bear Mountain last fall? Unless he is independently wealthy, how long before him, and the tens of dozens of other Albertans, Americans, Irish, whoever, that bought condos out here as investments, start to sell off their properties because their artificial wealth back home has whithered away? How long before our active MLS listings hits 4000, 5000, 6000??? When will it start to skyrocket? And how high will it go?

Perhaps, an applicable analogy is to liken our current listings inventory to a rubber band. It continues to be stretched until finally, it's released, and away it goes!

August 25 Week Ending Stats

2007-08-25T12:46:00.000-07:00

Single family home listings on MLS.ca are up slightly this week. The largest increase saw 8 more homes listed in the price range of $300k to $400k. There are 11 fewer homes listed in the $400k to $500k range.

Year over year, MLS.ca listings of 2 bedroom condos and 3 bedroom SFH are down significantly from last year. 3 bedroom townhomes listings have decreased since June, but are still up year over year.

Here's a good article to read in the New York Times regarding Countrywide Financial Corp. Housing Panic rants on about this company and it's CEO. I think it's justified. He has not bought a share in his own company since 1987! I'd bet on Countrywide going belly-up. Any guesses on what impact that would have on housing and real estate in Canada?

Writer's Block

2007-08-23T20:44:00.001-07:00

Sorry folks. I haven't been posting or writing or much of anything lately. I've recently switched positions at work and have been coming home pretty beat. I've got a little case of writer's block and I feel a little real estated out.

I'm getting tired of the constant cheer leading of the local real estate market by the media. I can't comprehend how they can say, in the same breath, that the U.S. market is so up the creek, but here in Victoria, prices will NEVER go down!

I have been enjoying the stock market roller-coaster over the past couple weeks. I'd sure love to be able to drink coffee and watch CNBC all day. It's like watching a basketball game!

I'm also finding the Alberta market quite interesting. Inventory is through the roof in Edmonton (and Calgary). Calgary's Real Estate Board has a 30 day rolling average selling price. It's been going down the past couple weeks. It was over $500k (up to around $507k I believe), and currently sits at $491k. I wonder if Alberta's market will be a sign of things to come for us.

Please carry on with the great comments! Thanks!

August 18 Week Ending Stats

2007-08-18T09:29:00.000-07:00

The number of active listings of SFH in Greater Victoria continued to decline this week.

- There are 969 SFH currently listed on MLS.ca
- This is 34 less than last week.
- This is 207 fewer listings than our recent peak on June 23 (there were 1176 SFH listings that day)

Houses are either selling or people are delisting their homes. I believe that it is the former. Sold stickers continue to be plastered against realtor signs. The market below $600000 continues to be quite hot, while above $600000, not so hot. I don't have proof, but that's what it appears to be.

It's quite perplexing how inventory is decreasing at this time of the year. Late summer and heading into fall, inventory should be increasing. I think Vancouver is seeing the same happenings. Rob Chipman's inventory is down from the peak of 2 months ago as well.

Possible reasons - a run on the market since interest rates appear (or appeared) to be rising. Perhaps it's the ever increasing popularity of 40 year mortgages. Yet more moms and dads are helping their kids. Any other ideas?

I've added another blog link under "The Nationals" section at the side. Titled "Canadian Mortgage Trends", it looks to contain some good bits of information.

Condemnation

2007-08-15T21:29:00.000-07:00

A couple of note worthy articles in today's TC.

Four Rental Buildings Condemned. The landlord refuses to perform any upkeep on the buildings, and voila! Let's tear down the buildings and do something different - build luxury condos!

Unbuilt Building Condemned. Well, not quite. The Wing condo project in Vic West continues to be an eyesore, yet the local community association doesn't appear to want to do anything about it. I don't get the statement from Diane Carr "... it's not the community's obligation to make up for a bad investment on the part of the investors. That's not our problem." Alright, then forget about offers from developers who want to do something with that mess, and enjoy your eyesore!

I think that Victoria is being overbuilt at this time, however, I would sooner have a building, that perhaps doesn't please everyone, than an eyesore empty concrete-laden lot. My $0.02.

What do you think?

2007-08-13T20:59:00.000-07:00

A local developer has approached me with an idea of theirs and would like some feedback. I offered to post their idea, and ask your opinions of it. Here goes...

A new home has been built in the city - 2000 sq. ft., maple, granite, wired for home theatre, all the good stuff. Rent would be set at $2500 / month. After one year, the renter would have the option of using their rent paid during the year ($30000) as a down payment on the purchase of the home. The home has an asking price of $500k. If the renter provides an additional $30000 for the down payment, the developer will borrow the renter an additional $40000 (at a 9% interest rate) for down payment. Total down payment would then equal $100k. As this is 20% of the purchase price, the purchaser qualifies for a conventional mortgage.

What do you think?

July Housing Starts and June New Housing Price Index

2007-08-09T20:44:00.000-07:00

CMHC has released July housing starts numbers for Vancouver Island and Victoria. For Victoria, July 2007 housing starts were more than double that of July 2006. Year-to-date, housing starts in Victoria are up 19% in 2007 over 2006.

B.C., as a whole, and nationally, housing starts are down.

Statistics Canada has released the New Housing Price Index for June. Victoria had the second lowest price increase from June 2006 to June 2007, at 0.5%. The lowest price increase belongs to Windsor, ON, at -2.3%.

Go figure. In Victoria, housing starts are up, and prices are stagnant. The rest of Canada is seeing price increases, yet housing starts have decreased. Supply and demand? Looks like it.

Focus on SFH Sales

2007-08-07T17:14:00.000-07:00

As I did for condos and townhomes, I've made a few graphs for SFH sales and median prices for Greater Victoria, Victoria, Langford and Saanich.

The number of sales of single family homes in Greater Victoria is higher this year than 2005 and 2006. Median sale price is increasing, and has not been negative year-over-year since 2005.

The City of Victoria has had high sales numbers the past couple of months. The median sale price is down from earlier this year. June's median sale price was negative year-over-year.

Langford has had an average number of SFH sales thus far this year. The median sale price is increasing.

Saanich home sales have been on a tear the past two months. Median sale price is consistently increasing at around 10% year-over-year.

All regions' year-over-year median price increases (%) have risen from late 2006 and early 2007. It's difficult to determine a definitive pattern due to our small market. There have been very few year-over-year monthly decreases since 2005.

I plan to have graphs for other municipalities in the future. Hopefully this provides a little food-for-thought.

August 4 Week Ending Stats

2007-08-04T11:33:00.001-07:00

Due to what appeared as irregularities in the number of listings on the new MLS.ca website, I haven't been posting weekly numbers. However, I have been recording the numbers, as funky as they seem.

My graph for 2 bedroom condos, 3 bedroom townhomes, and 3 bedroom SFH is now over one year old. The number of listings for condos and SFH is lower today than it was one year ago. Townhome listings are up from last year. Inventory in all three segments has dropped over the past month.

The number of SFH listings on MLS.ca has dropped over the past month in every price segment except in the $600k to $700k range. The number of homes available for under $500k continues to steadily decrease. Woe to the first time home buyers.

The percentage of SFH listed for over $700k continues to rise. Is there an end in sight? Today, 71% of SFH listed on MLS for Greater Victoria have an asking price of $500k and higher. Woe to the first time home buyers.

The obvious correlation between the rising median price of SFH and SFH listings is simply that there is nothing available for under $500k!

FTB, give your collective heads a shake! That $390000 POS 2 bedroom shack is not worth it!