August Sales Numbers

VREB has released the sales numbers for August 2008.

Comments have already started on this site. H/T to HHV and Roger as they have beat me to the punch.

However, here are my usual graphs.

Check out the months of inventory graph. We are so totally into a buyers' market!
More to follow in the coming days!

Is Summer Over?

It sure feels like it. The weather network says that next weekend should be above average temps - I hope so. As for the real estate market, summer is definitely over.

From what I'm seeing, sales of SFH are way down. I'm estimating August sales for SFH to be around 240. From 2005 - 2007, August SFH sales were 350, 328, and 399 respectively. I'm estimating the average sale price for SFH in August to be $560k - $570k. Last year it was $576k. Median should come in around $525k, higher than last year.

I follow SFH much closer than condos or townhomes. I'd guess condo sales will also be below previous Augusts, with a slight month-over-month price decrease. Townhomes, also lower sales, but a steady sales price.

This realtor's website has 5049 properties currently for sale in Greater Victoria. I recorded 4915 properties for sale at the end of July. VREB inventory numbers should increase by around 150, to approximately 4700. August 2007 had around 3350 properties for sale.

What are you seeing in your neighbourhoods? My street block has 6 for sale signs. That's the most I've ever seen here at one time.

Have a great long weekend! Back in September with the monthly stats!

Thursday Freebie

Lots of discussion and comments over the past week - good time to have a create a new post.

Front page of the Financial Post website right now has the following four articles.
- Canadian Housing in "Sustained downturn"
- Construction plans plunge, StatsCan reports
- House sales slip, prices stable
- Housing slump hits home

Also, from the Globe and Mail - Victoria's market is 30 to 35% overvalued.

Wow, everyone is so negative all of a sudden. Go figure! Have they been reading those bear blogs???

July Sales Numbers

2008 will certainly mark the beginning of the bear run. In July, sales continued to decrease, inventory remained high, and prices have rounded the corner and are dropping. The VREB stats can be found at their website.

Median sale price of SFH dropped for the 4th consecutive month and is 2.9% higher than July 2007.

Median condo sale price is the lowest since August 2007. Sales are 31% lower than July 2007. If this does not have the condo developers getting worried, then I have no idea what will.

Townhome sales are an anomaly. Median sale price was the second highest on record, however, sales are down 50% from July 2007.

Months of inventory of all properties jumped over the 7 month mark. This is the highest of all data I have access to (dating back to 2005).

CMHC "Housing Now" for June

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" production for June for Victoria and can be found here.

This house has finally sold. I don't know how many days on the market. Original asking price - $1049000. Sale price - $767000. That's still too much. MLS 245596. More power to them. There was a greater fool.

Interesting Websites

I've added a couple of interesting weblinks to the right hand side of the blog. You may have seen them on other sites or in the commentary.

- The New York Times Rent vs. Buy calculator. Thanks to QL.
- Walk Score website - Find a walkable neighbourhood. It's fun to play with. Thanks to Housing Panic.
- Garth Turner's website. I don't agree with all that he says and stands for, but I have been reading it almost daily. He doesn't sugarcoat the current economic and housing situation.

Also, check out MLS 248177. This house just sold for $422000. That's $93000 off the asking price!

Too little too late

"It's a bit like closing the barn door after the horse has already run down the road." Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., on today's announcement from the Government of Canada.

The new regulations certainly won't hurt the impending housing collapse.

Also, CMHC released their numbers for June housing starts for Vancouver Island.

June Sales Numbers

Well, we're a little late to the show, so grab yourself some popcorn and a seat, and enjoy the ride!

MIA

As a child, time passed by so slowly. I was always told, the older you get, the faster that time goes by. It's true.

I've had a lot going on, so it's come down to prioritizing. The blog has slipped on the importance list. It's nice though how it carries on without me. Please do feel free to continue to use the blog as a forum even as my postings have become less frequent.

Further on the person note, a couple months ago I ranted on how perhaps it was time to get out of the rental market. Well, it looks like we've decided to give our rental suite another year. We'll just make room and organize a little better for when this little person arrives this fall. In a year's time, we'll re-evaluate again.

I have still been keep inventory stats. Listings continue to increase, not quite at the pace as experienced in May though. I have only 6 more condos listed on MLS.ca today than there were on May 31. There are 4 fewer townhomes. There are 96 more SFH. In comparison to last year, there are 282 more SFH listings.

According to this realtor's website, there are right now 4848 active listings in Greater Victoria. This is 230 more than on May 31. The numbers don't make sense. None-the-less, inventory is still increasing.

I got a good laugh out of a realtor's comments on today's market condition. This is a direct quote from an email -

"So I thought "what would I say today about the Victoria Real Estate Market if someone asked"?

My comments would be that we have a balanced market where we are indeed selling at the rate of 1 SALE to 5 LISTINGS or 20% success ratio!!! In Vancouver and Lower mainland the ratio is 1 Sale to 10 LISTINGS or 10%!!

So Victoria is still quite active and prices are staple - a balanced market!"

Go figure!

May Sales Numbers

Sorry folks. No time. Here's my contribution.

May sales numbers according to the VREB.

CMHC "Housing Now" for April

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" report for April for Greater Victoria.

There are currently 4618 active property listings, approximately 550 more than 1 month ago.

May 24 Week Ending Stats

We live in some crazy times, and they keep getting crazier.

Oil hit $135 a barrel this week, and will go higher. Goldman Sachs is thinking $200 / barrel within 2 years.

Another Canadian bank, RBC, is proclaiming that the Canadian housing boom is over. We all know Alberta's market is slumping and Canada's is slowing dramatically. There are 17286 properties for sale in Greater Vancouver. There is an 11.2 month supply of homes in the US.

Victoria, of course, is no different. Sales have slowed. Inventory doesn't stop rising. Right now, we are at 4522 properties for sale in Greater Victoria.

On the MLS, today we have 154 more SFH listed than one month ago, 170 more condos, and actually 5 fewer townhomes. 2 out of 3 ain't bad!

In case anyone is interested, CMHC has released their 2nd quarter housing market outlook for Victoria.

Oh yeah, thanks for visiting this site and making it an active forum for comments. Let's remember to keep the comments civil and focused more on real estate. Thanks.

April Housing Starts

CMHC's release of April housing starts for Vancouver Island can be found here. Rising housing inventory shows no sign of slowing down.

April Townhome Sales Graphs

Just a couple of graphs showing townhome sales numbers and median sales prices over the previous years.

April Sales Numbers

I see that discussion has already started on April's sales numbers, as published by the VREB. Listings are up, sales numbers are down. I think that the average sales price for this past month is a moot point. As long as inventory rises and quantity of sales decreases, we move into, if we aren't already there, a buyer's market. Prices then start to decrease. Sellers are still holding out at this point because they see their neighbour sell their house for near asking price, yet they don't see the five other neighbours that aren't selling their homes.

What I don't understand is this - I see sales prices via a realtor's PCS. Why are people buying homes for the asking price? If you are in the market for buying - start lowballing!!!

I'm also quite surprised at the number of $1+ million sales. I thought that the smart money was those who had money. Obviously not.

Anyways, here are my charts. More to follow.

April 26 Week Ending Stats

Inventory is continuing to rise, however, not at the pace that it was in March. According to this realtor's website, there are currently 4070 active listings in Greater Victoria. This is around 200 more than at the end of March. In comparison, the month of March saw an increase of around 350 listings on their website.

Today, there are 137 more SFH listings on MLS than on the 29th of March. The greatest increase in listings has been for SFH priced higher than $700k. There have been comments on the incredible number of listings with asking prices higher than $1 million. Today, there are 248 of such listings. Crazy!

There are 20 more townhomes listed today than there were on March 29. The number of condos listed is basically unchanged.

I have to pick on this one $1 million+ listings. MLS#240724. Seriously, what are these people smoking? $1049000 for this POS? Yeah right!

March Condo Sales Graphs

The Housing Boom is Officially Over!

Thanks to anonymous for mentioning this occasion on Craigslist.

Yes, according to The Globe and Mail, and specifically Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., the housing boom in Canada is now officially over. First quarter statistics are what helped him come to that conclusion.

Certainly, we are seeing this in Victoria. Inventory is ballooning and sales are the lowest in years.

Will we follow in the footsteps of our neighbours south of the border? Perhaps. Perhaps not. But the market is definitely not what it was in the previous 2 or 3 years.

Discuss away!

March SFH Sales Graphs

A picture is worth a thousand words...

March Sales Numbers

The Victoria Real Estate Board has posted March's sales numbers. Commentary on the numbers started in the last post. Please do continue. It looks to me like this year is going to the bears.

Following are SFH, condo, and townhome graphs for Greater Victoria. More are to follow in the coming days.

Has the market turned?

I'm glad to see that this blog keeps going even when I'm absent - just like an energizer bunny!

FYI, we haven't bought, we haven't even been to a mortgage broker. In fact, I think we have decided to stay put for the time being. We'll make it work where we are!

It does appear that the market may have turned over the past 1-2 months. Listings are rocketing upwards, sales "appear" to be really low and slow. Realtors are saying that the market has "stabilized", some are even recommending to not rush into anything. People are talking about the slowing of the market, and friends are advising friends to be careful when looking at purchasing. These are all people that I think were very positive on the market 6 months ago.

Right now, there are 3888 active listings. February 29th there were 3526 active listings. The VREB always seems to state listings in a month to be lower that on this realtor's website. Regardless, VREB should have the active listings number for March to be around 350 higher than February's. That would put their listings at around 3660. This blows away the peak of listings from last year (June - around 3550) and we are only in March! If the number of sales is as low as it appears to be, March's numbers will be very interesting! We'll see how Tony Joe spins this month's numbers.

Listings of SFH priced over $700k is nearly bursting off my chart! There are currently more than 200 SFH listed with an asking price of $1 million or higher. Let's see, if there are 10 sales in that price range, we'd have 20 months supply of million dollars homes. Good grief!

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" report for Victoria for February.

February Housing Starts

CMHC has released February's housing starts numbers.

Thus far this year, housing starts are down from 2007. However, we are still at a record number of homes under construction.

What will Victoria's unemployment rate be when the number of homes under construction moves lower to normal levels ( 1/4 of today's homes under construction)????

February Sales Numbers

The Victoria Real Estate Board has released their sales numbers for February. Discussion has started in the comments of the previous post. Please feel free to continue commenting on this post.

In comparison to February 2007, sales are down, prices are up, and listings are up. In comparison to January 2008, sales are up, prices are down, listings are up. The last time that Greater Victoria has seen two consecutive months of single family home price decreases was between June and August 2006. SFH average price has decreased 6% since it's peak in December 2007.

Average condo price has pretty much been horizontal since November 2006.

Average townhome price is off big-time from it's peak in November 2007.

I'd love to provide some graphs, but unfortunately, about 2 weeks ago I had a horrendous case of spyware on my computer and was forced to format my hard drive. I haven't located my copy of Excel as of yet. Once I do, the graphs will be back!

Why Not Rent?

Here's a challenge, perhaps a dare. Find me a home to rent. It needs to be in View Royal, Langford, Colwood, Mill Bay, Shawnigan, maybe Cobble Hill. It must have 3 bedrooms up, 3 bedrooms (or 2 bedrooms and den / office) down (down is a suite). They must be separate living spaces. The lower suite must be above ground, with minimum 8 foot ceilings and large windows. The house must have a garage and a decent sized yard. The house must be available to rent April 1st or later.

All this for $2500 a month.

If you can find me this house, I will seriously consider renting it. I don't think it exists. I'd love to be wrong.

Why Rent?

I need to vent a little.

Unfortunately, the time has come for my wife and I to find a new rental. Reasons being that she works a couple days a week in Duncan, and we live south end of Victoria, so the commute is long, costly, and I don't really like her driving the Malahat so often (I'm a bit of a worry-wart). Also, we are hoping that in the next year or two, we will require more space, as in another bedroom. And so, we are looking for a 2 bedroom and den or 3 bedroom rental that is west of View Royal.

Rentals of that sort are not easily come by! And the prices! Yikes! Are any of you looking for the same thing these days? Unbelievable!

Three-quarters of available rentals are 1 or 2 bedroom. A 3 bedroom rental will be either an entire house, or the upper portion (there are a few 3 bedroom lower rentals, but I imagine them to be dungeons.) Monthly rent for a 3 bedroom does go as low as $1100 / month, but most are more that $1400 / month, the average probably being around $1800 / month. A lot of those don't meet our location criteria.

I'm just tired of renting. Tired of fighting for parking spots. Tired of our minuscule little kitchen. Tired of living in basements. Tired of trying to find a rental for one month from now because our rental agreement states we must give one month notice, yet 90% of all the rentals available are available immediately. Tired of not putting our roots down anywhere.

You guys had better keep me on the straight and narrow. I'm on the verge of going to the bank to see what we what size of mortgage we may qualify for. I feel like we are getting close to the point where for the sake of personal happiness, we may go against better judgement.

Deception Part 2

Remember June last year? I ranted over the deceptive scheme being used to sell the Reflections development in Langford. Advertised was a purchase plan for a $335k condo with zero down for $995 per month. Not even in the small print did the ad say that your payments would double after one year.

Well, correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like Peter Gaby is up to his deceptive ways again this year. This time the development is The Aspen in View Royal. He's advertising a 3 bedroom condo (also 1 bedroom and 2 bedrooms for less) for $1034 per month, with 10% down, 40 year amortization, and a discounted variable rate of 5.25%. At least, the ad does mention that the scheme is "cash back to offset payments over 12 months".

The least expensive 3 bedroom condo in that development has an asking price of $409900. After putting 10% down, your mortgage would be $368910. 40 year amortization, 5.25% rate, gives you a monthly payment of $1826.40.

This year, I'm not as floored over this scheme as I was last year. Truthfully, I'm not surprised. I guess I'm getting jaded.

Bold Advertising

I thought today's Tuscany Village ad in the TC was quite bold, considering that RE in Victoria always only goes up. I wonder how choked other developer's are with this ad. Those poor folks who bought years ago for list price - they must be kicking themselves. If you are one of them, don't worry, there will be others in your shoes in the future!

Housing inventory continues to climb. There are 122 more properties for sale since my last posting on January 27. That includes 56 more condos, 57 more SFH, 2 more townhomes. The last 7 must be lots, or trailers, or some other category. Looking at the SFH graph, it's easy to see that inventory is rising faster this year than last.

January 26 Week Ending Stats

No surprises this week. The number of properties listed on MLS continues to grow. 65 more condos listed this week than last, 12 more townhomes, and 25 more SFH.

January 19

Inventory of homes in Greater Victoria is increasing quite rapidly this year. In the past two weeks, there's been an increase of 119 SFH listed on MLS. Since January 7, there's been an increase of 423 active listings in the region. Homes are still selling, but new listings are certainly outpacing the sales (also see what's happening in Vancouver!)

A couple things of note:
- It's nice to see that Canada has their own version of Lawrence Yun and David Lehreah - Gregory Klump! Check this guy out and what he has to say!

- Our favourite condo development gone bad, Tuscany Village, had a couple of interesting sales last year. According to BC Assessments, unit 418 - 1620 McKenzie Ave is assessed at $476000 and sold for $339900 on October 5. Unit 419 - 1620 McKenzie is assessed at $461000 and sold for $346625 on October 9. How would you like to be the person who bought unit 411 - 1620 McKenzie Ave, assessed for $449000, but you paid $500000 (June 27)!!!

- Another Tuscany note, unit 413 - 1620 McKenzie had an asking price of $510195 in May. Today, it is $419900 (MLS#237359). I thought real estate always went up! If you're in the market for a condo, this is the place to make a low ball offer.

- Is the Radius condo / commercial development the next Tuscany Village??? This link from the TC used to work. No longer for me. Anyways, here was the beginning...

Costs stall Radius project
Carolyn Heiman, Times Colonist
Published: Saturday, January 12, 2008
Skyrocketing construction costs, which some experts say are rising 1.5 per cent a month, have temporarily stalled work on the $160-million Radius project, says the developer.
But John Schucht of Waywell Development said the project -- kitty-corner to the Save-on-Foods Memorial Centre -- will resume after a reassessment of construction costs in the region, which he described as "runaway."
Schucht said a construction hiatus was planned for the Christmas holiday but instead of resuming on Jan. 7, the break will be longer. He declined to say how much longer.

2008 Poll Results

Very interesting results from this last week's polls. Of course, it wasn't very scientific. But, that's ok. Here they are...

53% (33 of 62) of you are pessimistic about 2008. I'm sorry to hear that. Pray tell...

73% (53 of 72) believe that Victoria's average SFH selling price will be lower in 2008 than 2007. Let's hope so.

52% (36 of 69) think that Canada's economy will go into recession in 2008. Are you the pessimistic ones?

95% (66 of 69) know that the U.S. economy will go into recession this year.

78% (54 of 69) think that the loonie will remain above par with the greenback. This may hasten our recession.

33% (22 of 65) think oil will hit $100 this year. So far, you're right.
23% (15 of 65) think $110.
29% (19 of 65) think $120. Hmm...
13% (9 of 65) are shooting for the stars - $150. Or maybe not. Did you all vote late in the polls?

62% (39 of 62) believe that we'll be going to the federal polls this year.

92% (61 of 66) think that the oval office will be headed by a democrat. Not very surprising.

Great! Thanks for taking part. Feel free to comment on the results.

December Sales Numbers

I'm a little late on this one. I'm glad it's getting discussed in the previous posts' comments. Thus, I won't comment much here on the December numbers. However, I will throw out the graphs.

Single family home sales for the past three years. Look at the regional sales prices on the VREB website. Those million dollar SFH sales had to have only been in Oak Bay, Saanich East, and Victoria (maybe one in North Saanich). The other regions, they are either below or only marginally above the 6 month average.

Condo sales.

Townhome sales.

Finally, months of inventory for all properties. Where is it going to go from here?

The football game has finally ended. Thank goodness! The Bulls kicker made a field goal. A Bears player made a late hit on the kicker, and a side clearing brawl ensued. Those Bears are sore losers! I'm just kidding. I'm just a bitter renter. Final score, Bulls 32, Bears 19.

Happy New Year!

A new year has begun. For some, this means overcoming a hangover, others, time to reflect, speculate, or make goals for the next 366 days. I'm not a believer in resolutions. However, it is nice to start a new year in order to make statements like "I haven't had a smoke this year" or "The Canucks haven't lost this year". Those statements often don't last very long.

What will 2008 bring? I'm pretty excited - I think it will be a very interesting year. I feel that there is much at the tipping point. Governments, economies, real estate, beer prices. Regarding RE, I'd be along the lines of HHV's predictions. Victoria has peaked, but without the help of a major external influence, will not crash this year.

I thought it would be interesting to get all of your takes on what is in store for 2008. I've created a few polls on the side - please do place your votes. And as usual, comment away. I always enjoy reading them!