Cameron Muir, BCREA chief economist, "Homes sales are unlikely to fall much further... That being said we expect home sales not to decline much further." November 15, 2008, Times Colonist.
Tony Joe, Victoria Real Estate Board President, "While we cannot predict the future or remain completely immune from the larger economic forces now at play in the world, we believe much of the recent doom and gloom pessimism regarding the housing market is unwarranted, at least as far as the Victoria area is concerned. Yes, the market has slowed down but we can liken that to some air escaping from the balloon; there is no indication at present that the balloon itself is in danger of bursting. The fundamentals remain strong..." November 15, 2008, Times Colonist, page E9.
Perhaps both of these gentlemen should look at Novembers' sales thus far. I'm estimating that fewer than 100 SFH will have sold in Greater Victoria by the end of this month. Last November there were 310 SFH sales. Not one house has sold in Sooke or Colwood so far this month.
However, the headlines will of course read "Sales slow, prices rebound" as the average SFH selling price thus far in November is near $600000, the median near $550000.
Kiddies, if your mom or dad is a realtor, go easy on them this Christmas. Times are going to be tough for a while longer.
Showing posts with label BCREA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BCREA. Show all posts
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Thursday, April 26, 2007
BCREA Housing Forecast for Victoria
The British Columbia Real Estate Association released it's first semi-annual housing forecast report today. It can be found here.
The conspiracist inside me poses a question. The question is not in regards to the content of the report. That can be discussed later. The question is, why has the BCREA come out with a housing forecast report, and why now?
Is it because they are seeing the market move in a direction that does not benefit them?
Perhaps, the purpose of the report is to renew buyers' confidence in the market. The report states that despite the shift in housing market conditions, "it is a gradual return to a balanced market". People need to hear this over and over again to feel confident in the market, and then go out there and buy that big house. I'm no different. If I keep hearing "it's a balanced market", "prices will keep rising", and "the economy is strong", I'll believe it and get mortgaged over my head. However, if the contrary is spoken, along the line of what Robert Shiller is saying these days, and then heeded, well, I'm gonna find a nice house to rent, and sign a 5 year lease.
Why did the BCREA not start putting out housing forecast reports 1, 2, 5 years ago? (or did they?) Is it because the market needed no pumping up back then?
From the BCREA website, on who they are, "The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) promotes the interests of the real estate profession on behalf of its member boards". The BCREA represents Realtors. Their profession suffers in a declining market. They have a vested interest in the real estate market. Therefore, their reports need to be examined with scrutiny.
Now to the report itself. Sales down, prices up. 'Nuf said.
The conspiracist inside me poses a question. The question is not in regards to the content of the report. That can be discussed later. The question is, why has the BCREA come out with a housing forecast report, and why now?
Is it because they are seeing the market move in a direction that does not benefit them?
Perhaps, the purpose of the report is to renew buyers' confidence in the market. The report states that despite the shift in housing market conditions, "it is a gradual return to a balanced market". People need to hear this over and over again to feel confident in the market, and then go out there and buy that big house. I'm no different. If I keep hearing "it's a balanced market", "prices will keep rising", and "the economy is strong", I'll believe it and get mortgaged over my head. However, if the contrary is spoken, along the line of what Robert Shiller is saying these days, and then heeded, well, I'm gonna find a nice house to rent, and sign a 5 year lease.
Why did the BCREA not start putting out housing forecast reports 1, 2, 5 years ago? (or did they?) Is it because the market needed no pumping up back then?
From the BCREA website, on who they are, "The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) promotes the interests of the real estate profession on behalf of its member boards". The BCREA represents Realtors. Their profession suffers in a declining market. They have a vested interest in the real estate market. Therefore, their reports need to be examined with scrutiny.
Now to the report itself. Sales down, prices up. 'Nuf said.
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