VictoriaPANIC?

Another crazy day. Do you think our city of Victoria will ever get to PANIC mode? People do seem a little tense about the recent happenings. Housing is no longer a given, and with so many blue hairs in our city, the stock market is a definite concern. Hopefully people near retirement age have done their financial planning and thrown most of their savings into something secure.

One day until October. I'm still guessing around 280 SFH sales in September, with a median just below $500k and an average around $550k.

If those numbers are close, as a renter I'll have made $20k since last September, as last year's median was $520k. Shucks, that more than pays for this previous year's rent! Maybe a new show for TLC should be Renter Ladder (not Property Ladder), featuring renters climbing the real estate market ladder by not having bought!

The Roller Coaster Continues

This downward portion of the coaster is a little scarier, isn't it? There appears to be uncertainty all around us. Having started our little family, life decisions take on another magnitude of seriousness. The best thing to do may be to hunker down and work hard. Who knows what tomorrow brings! I think it's better to be optimistic, while being realistic, in decision making. I refuse to live in fear all the days of my life.

Regarding non-real estate related comments - it's all good with me. Just keep them family friendly and no personal attacks, please. I think that real estate, the economy, even politics, are intertwined. So go ahead - carry on!

It looks to me like real estate listings continue to increase for Greater Victoria. On September 2, after the month-end drop-off in listings, there were 4836 listings. Today, there are 5109 listings on this realtor's website. That's an increase of 273. 5109 is the highest I have recorded for this year.

As for sales, I'm watching SFH sales more closely these days. It looks to me like the average price for September will be very similar to August, as there have been a number of million dollar homes sold. However, median sales price should be lower than last months'. The number of sales should be higher than August, yet lower than September 2007. If the current trend continues, I'm guessing we'll see around 260 - 280 SFH sold in September for Greater Victoria.

Sorry, I have no idea what's going on with condos and townhomes. Any ideas?

Interesting Websites

I've added a couple of interesting weblinks to the right hand side of the blog. You may have seen them on other sites or in the commentary.

- The New York Times Rent vs. Buy calculator. Thanks to QL.
- Walk Score website - Find a walkable neighbourhood. It's fun to play with. Thanks to Housing Panic.
- Garth Turner's website. I don't agree with all that he says and stands for, but I have been reading it almost daily. He doesn't sugarcoat the current economic and housing situation.

Also, check out MLS 248177. This house just sold for $422000. That's $93000 off the asking price!

The Housing Boom is Officially Over!

Thanks to anonymous for mentioning this occasion on Craigslist.

Yes, according to The Globe and Mail, and specifically Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., the housing boom in Canada is now officially over. First quarter statistics are what helped him come to that conclusion.

Certainly, we are seeing this in Victoria. Inventory is ballooning and sales are the lowest in years.

Will we follow in the footsteps of our neighbours south of the border? Perhaps. Perhaps not. But the market is definitely not what it was in the previous 2 or 3 years.

Discuss away!

Big Rate Cut

As everyone has heard, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut the overnight lending rate by 50 basis points, or 0.5%. The experts were somewhat surprised. I am surprised that they were surprised. Yet, their response was exactly what I had heard it would be, if there was a cut of that size. The experts are afraid of what lies ahead.

What does lie ahead? What does it bring for me and my family, the city and province I live in, and for Canada?

A person could theorize and hypothesize until the cows come home. Even with that, they could still not get it right. If any one person could predict what was going to happen, well, they'd be very rich. Perhaps that is why statements from Warren Buffet and the likes are well heeded.

I have no idea. That's why I started this blog. But here's what I could possibly see. Rate cut in the U.S. - U.S. dollar drops - CAN$ rises - CAN exports continue to fall (except oil) - things slow even further in export reliant regions of CAN - CAN economy slows - rate cuts in CAN - housing market????

I'm no expert. What do you think? Where will B.C.'s and Canada's economies be in 1 year from now? 5 years from now?