Wednesday, April 1, 2009
March Sales Numbers
The VREB has released the March real estate sales numbers for Victoria. I got dizzy reading their report because of all of the spin!
Sunday, March 29, 2009
March Madness
March is going to be touted by the VREB as another month of a stable and balanced real estate market in Greater Victoria. They will likely continue to compare stats month-to-month, as that spins them in their favour.
Of the stats I'm keeping, it looks like March will have approximately 290 SFH sales, with an average between $535k and $540k. The median will be around $515k. Month-over-month this looks impressive. What about year-over-year? Last March, there were 374 sales, with an average of $597k and a median of around $530k. Now this March doesn't look so impressive.
Sorry, I don't have any info regarding townhomes and condos.
Of the stats I'm keeping, it looks like March will have approximately 290 SFH sales, with an average between $535k and $540k. The median will be around $515k. Month-over-month this looks impressive. What about year-over-year? Last March, there were 374 sales, with an average of $597k and a median of around $530k. Now this March doesn't look so impressive.
Sorry, I don't have any info regarding townhomes and condos.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Deal... or No Deal?
Due to the underwhelming success of the auction at Reflections in Langford, they have again lowered prices. This time, they are following the cues of Finlayson Reach and St. Andrew's Walk by chopping their prices by up to 40%. Good discount, but are they now good prices? What is the fair market value?
Some feel that fair market value is equal rent to ownership costs. I'll go with that. What would a 1 bedroom and den unit at Reflections rent for? Maybe $1100 / month? Strata fees and taxes for that unit would be maybe $250 / month. Subtract those from the rent = $850 / month mortgage payment. Today, you can get a 5 year fixed for 4.09%. With a 35 year amortization, you'd have a $180000 mortgage. Of course, you'd still need to cover a down payment and other associated fees (CMHC, property transfer tax, etc). The cheapest unit advertised is still $199000. That price is close, but still too high.
Some feel that fair market value is equal rent to ownership costs. I'll go with that. What would a 1 bedroom and den unit at Reflections rent for? Maybe $1100 / month? Strata fees and taxes for that unit would be maybe $250 / month. Subtract those from the rent = $850 / month mortgage payment. Today, you can get a 5 year fixed for 4.09%. With a 35 year amortization, you'd have a $180000 mortgage. Of course, you'd still need to cover a down payment and other associated fees (CMHC, property transfer tax, etc). The cheapest unit advertised is still $199000. That price is close, but still too high.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Bear Market at Bear Mountain
Bear Mountain is calling it a bear market and slashing prices at Finlayson Reach and St. Andrews Walk. This was mentioned over at Vibrant Victoria a couple days ago, just haven't had the time to post it yet. H/T to anonymous for mentioning it in the comments of the last post.
Also, H/T to anonymous regarding the auction at Reflections - Chek6 reported that 15 of the 40 units sold. So, 25 condos left. When's the no reserve auction?
Apparently, a local realtor sent out the following email recently. I thought it was good for a laugh.
"You may already know, but I wanted to ensure that you were aware of two significant developments that occurred last week in the Victoria Real Estate Market.
Firstly, Bank of Canada interest rates dropped by another half point followed by most Chartered Banks. Prime Rate now stands at 2.5% which is unprecedented in a generation.
Secondly, the Victoria Real Estate Board announced that the number of sales in the Greater Victoria Region had risen substantially during the month of January over the previous two months.
The reaction in the marketplace to these two events was immediate and dramatic. Buyers sensed that the market was turning and that prices would now begin to stabilize after months of decline and uncertainty. This combined with record low mortgage rates resulted in an amazing number of accepted offers over the weekend on listings that in many cases enjoyed multiple offers. It has been a while since this kind of market activity has been evident in the Greater Victoria Region.
It is a great time to buy and more and more people are recognizing the opportunities that are available."
P.S. Just saw the money printing video, thanks HHV for the link. These are scary times. Thanks Obama.
Also, H/T to anonymous regarding the auction at Reflections - Chek6 reported that 15 of the 40 units sold. So, 25 condos left. When's the no reserve auction?
Apparently, a local realtor sent out the following email recently. I thought it was good for a laugh.
"You may already know, but I wanted to ensure that you were aware of two significant developments that occurred last week in the Victoria Real Estate Market.
Firstly, Bank of Canada interest rates dropped by another half point followed by most Chartered Banks. Prime Rate now stands at 2.5% which is unprecedented in a generation.
Secondly, the Victoria Real Estate Board announced that the number of sales in the Greater Victoria Region had risen substantially during the month of January over the previous two months.
The reaction in the marketplace to these two events was immediate and dramatic. Buyers sensed that the market was turning and that prices would now begin to stabilize after months of decline and uncertainty. This combined with record low mortgage rates resulted in an amazing number of accepted offers over the weekend on listings that in many cases enjoyed multiple offers. It has been a while since this kind of market activity has been evident in the Greater Victoria Region.
It is a great time to buy and more and more people are recognizing the opportunities that are available."
P.S. Just saw the money printing video, thanks HHV for the link. These are scary times. Thanks Obama.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Monday, February 23, 2009
New Post, YEAH!
Ok, here's a new post.
Picked up today's Macleans. Front cover was the housing bust. Read it online, it's ok.
I've been enjoying Garth Turner's posts these days. Seems that since he lost his political seat, he has much more time for his blog. Maybe he found his calling.
Oh yeah, real estate in Victoria. At this point, it looks like February average SFH sales price should come in around $520k, median at $485k. Total SFH sales should be around 200 for the month, big improvement over January, a far cry from previous Februaries.
Picked up today's Macleans. Front cover was the housing bust. Read it online, it's ok.
I've been enjoying Garth Turner's posts these days. Seems that since he lost his political seat, he has much more time for his blog. Maybe he found his calling.
Oh yeah, real estate in Victoria. At this point, it looks like February average SFH sales price should come in around $520k, median at $485k. Total SFH sales should be around 200 for the month, big improvement over January, a far cry from previous Februaries.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
2008 Poll Review
The little one is finally asleep for a Saturday morning nap. I thought I'd take a look at the old blog. Holy Crap! 215 comments, better write a new post.
First, from my SFH sales monitoring, it looks like January will have an average selling price of around $525000, with the median coming in around $475000. I'd estimate around 130 SFH sales for the month.
I've been meaning for the past month to review the poll I put out there at the beginning of 2008. Of course, it hasn't happened, till now. The results were posted in my January 9, 2008 blog.
At the beginning of 2008, 53% of you were pessimistic about 2008. It all depends on how you look at it. For me, it was a good year. How about for you?
73% thought that Victoria's average SFH selling price would be lower in 2008 than 2007. It wasn't. The average for 2007 was $565904. The average for 2008 was $585701.
52% thought that Canada would enter a recession in 2008. I believe that remains to be seen, as Stats Canada has not released numbers for December yet.
95% knew that the U.S. would enter a recession in 2008.
78% thought that the loonie would remain above par with the greenback. Nope.
13% of us were close to predicting how high oil would rise - $150. The final peak for the year was just over $147 (correct me if I'm wrong).
62% thought we'd go to the polls in 2008. We almost went twice!
92% believed the next U.S. president would be a democrat. How right they were.
January sales numbers come out in a couple days. They should be interesting. Have a great weekend.
First, from my SFH sales monitoring, it looks like January will have an average selling price of around $525000, with the median coming in around $475000. I'd estimate around 130 SFH sales for the month.
I've been meaning for the past month to review the poll I put out there at the beginning of 2008. Of course, it hasn't happened, till now. The results were posted in my January 9, 2008 blog.
At the beginning of 2008, 53% of you were pessimistic about 2008. It all depends on how you look at it. For me, it was a good year. How about for you?
73% thought that Victoria's average SFH selling price would be lower in 2008 than 2007. It wasn't. The average for 2007 was $565904. The average for 2008 was $585701.
52% thought that Canada would enter a recession in 2008. I believe that remains to be seen, as Stats Canada has not released numbers for December yet.
95% knew that the U.S. would enter a recession in 2008.
78% thought that the loonie would remain above par with the greenback. Nope.
13% of us were close to predicting how high oil would rise - $150. The final peak for the year was just over $147 (correct me if I'm wrong).
62% thought we'd go to the polls in 2008. We almost went twice!
92% believed the next U.S. president would be a democrat. How right they were.
January sales numbers come out in a couple days. They should be interesting. Have a great weekend.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Holding their breath
I have a quick question (or two).
These days, how long can a developer hold on to the hope of selling their condo units for nearly the full price after a project has been completed?
How long is it, after a building is completed, yet not sold out, until a developer has a fire sale?
Here's a partial list of developments in Victoria that are completed, or near, and still have units for sale - Bayview, Chelsea, Dockside Green, Aria, Juliet, Redstone, Breakwater, Palladian, Pearl, Vicino, Gateway, Aspen, Tuscany, Centennial Walk, Richmond Gate, Julia, Madrona Creek, Carriage Pointe, Finlayson Reach, Reflections, Stonehaven, Goldstream Station, Strathmore, Tara, La Vie, and I've probably missed some.
These days, how long can a developer hold on to the hope of selling their condo units for nearly the full price after a project has been completed?
How long is it, after a building is completed, yet not sold out, until a developer has a fire sale?
Here's a partial list of developments in Victoria that are completed, or near, and still have units for sale - Bayview, Chelsea, Dockside Green, Aria, Juliet, Redstone, Breakwater, Palladian, Pearl, Vicino, Gateway, Aspen, Tuscany, Centennial Walk, Richmond Gate, Julia, Madrona Creek, Carriage Pointe, Finlayson Reach, Reflections, Stonehaven, Goldstream Station, Strathmore, Tara, La Vie, and I've probably missed some.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Happy New Year! 3 days late...
Happy New Year everyone. God bless, and we'll see what 2009 brings, right? I love roller coasters.
VREB has released the numbers for December. Slow sales, ever so small price increase in SFH and condos. The new VREB prez, Chris Markham, put the usual spin on the numbers. It may be just me, be he doesn't appear to be the eternal optimist that Tony Joe was.
VREB has released the numbers for December. Slow sales, ever so small price increase in SFH and condos. The new VREB prez, Chris Markham, put the usual spin on the numbers. It may be just me, be he doesn't appear to be the eternal optimist that Tony Joe was.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Little Prairiegirl
My wife and I have been blessed with the addition of a little prairiegirl to our family. To say that life changes after having a baby is a absolute understatement! Especially when she likes to have her days and nights reversed. It's supposed to get better though, so we'll get through it, I'm not too worried. However, my blogging may suffer even more than it has lately - if that is possible!Real estate related, December is turning out to be another slow month. SFH sales should probably come in around 120 - 130 for the month. The average and median sale price are currently hovering around $510k thus far. Of course, any high priced home sales will immediately skew that number.
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