Saturday, January 20, 2007

January 20 Week Ending Stats

Beginning last July, I started to compile some statistics through the website. I know that this is not the best source for stats, but they should at least point towards trends. I would much sooner know the sell prices than the listing prices, but when given lemons, make lemonade. My stats are all based on the Victoria region for Vancouver Island (includes Sooke through North Saanich).

The first graph looks at listings of 2 bedroom condos, 3 bedroom townhomes, and 3 bedroom single family homes. I hoped that by following the trend of listings inventory, and with a little help from the supply and demand principle, it would be possible to make a guestimate on the direction of prices. These curves are very similar to the stats given by the Victoria Real Estate Board. High inventory during the summer and fall, with a decrease during November and December. It appears that we may have hit the inventory low, with numbers now starting to rebound over the past couple weeks.

I was also interested in the breakdown of listings of all single family homes in different price ranges. Above is the current percentage of SFH in the noted prices ranges (in $000). There's not much below $300000. There's lots above $700000!

I also thought it would be interesting to follow the trend of listings price breakdown over time. This graph would hopefully reveal either the trend towards higher or lower listing prices. So far, I would be hesitant to draw any conclusions. With the seasonal decrease in listings, any conclusion would only be speculative.

It will be interesting to follow the numbers this spring and then heading into summer. If Victoria follows the pattern of a number of American cities, we should see continued higher than norm listings. It would only make sense that prices should drop, but I seem to always have been incorrect in previous predictions about the local real estate market. This Prairieboy is still attempting to understand the west coast home market!

Are there any predictions out there?
Where will listings numbers go?
How about prices? Up? Down?
Buy now, or wait?