MIA

As a child, time passed by so slowly. I was always told, the older you get, the faster that time goes by. It's true.

I've had a lot going on, so it's come down to prioritizing. The blog has slipped on the importance list. It's nice though how it carries on without me. Please do feel free to continue to use the blog as a forum even as my postings have become less frequent.

Further on the person note, a couple months ago I ranted on how perhaps it was time to get out of the rental market. Well, it looks like we've decided to give our rental suite another year. We'll just make room and organize a little better for when this little person arrives this fall. In a year's time, we'll re-evaluate again.

I have still been keep inventory stats. Listings continue to increase, not quite at the pace as experienced in May though. I have only 6 more condos listed on MLS.ca today than there were on May 31. There are 4 fewer townhomes. There are 96 more SFH. In comparison to last year, there are 282 more SFH listings.

According to this realtor's website, there are right now 4848 active listings in Greater Victoria. This is 230 more than on May 31. The numbers don't make sense. None-the-less, inventory is still increasing.

I got a good laugh out of a realtor's comments on today's market condition. This is a direct quote from an email -

"So I thought "what would I say today about the Victoria Real Estate Market if someone asked"?

My comments would be that we have a balanced market where we are indeed selling at the rate of 1 SALE to 5 LISTINGS or 20% success ratio!!! In Vancouver and Lower mainland the ratio is 1 Sale to 10 LISTINGS or 10%!!

So Victoria is still quite active and prices are staple - a balanced market!"

Go figure!

May 24 Week Ending Stats

We live in some crazy times, and they keep getting crazier.

Oil hit $135 a barrel this week, and will go higher. Goldman Sachs is thinking $200 / barrel within 2 years.

Another Canadian bank, RBC, is proclaiming that the Canadian housing boom is over. We all know Alberta's market is slumping and Canada's is slowing dramatically. There are 17286 properties for sale in Greater Vancouver. There is an 11.2 month supply of homes in the US.

Victoria, of course, is no different. Sales have slowed. Inventory doesn't stop rising. Right now, we are at 4522 properties for sale in Greater Victoria.

On the MLS, today we have 154 more SFH listed than one month ago, 170 more condos, and actually 5 fewer townhomes. 2 out of 3 ain't bad!

In case anyone is interested, CMHC has released their 2nd quarter housing market outlook for Victoria.

Oh yeah, thanks for visiting this site and making it an active forum for comments. Let's remember to keep the comments civil and focused more on real estate. Thanks.

April 26 Week Ending Stats

Inventory is continuing to rise, however, not at the pace that it was in March. According to this realtor's website, there are currently 4070 active listings in Greater Victoria. This is around 200 more than at the end of March. In comparison, the month of March saw an increase of around 350 listings on their website.

Today, there are 137 more SFH listings on MLS than on the 29th of March. The greatest increase in listings has been for SFH priced higher than $700k. There have been comments on the incredible number of listings with asking prices higher than $1 million. Today, there are 248 of such listings. Crazy!

There are 20 more townhomes listed today than there were on March 29. The number of condos listed is basically unchanged.

I have to pick on this one $1 million+ listings. MLS#240724. Seriously, what are these people smoking? $1049000 for this POS? Yeah right!

Has the market turned?

I'm glad to see that this blog keeps going even when I'm absent - just like an energizer bunny!

FYI, we haven't bought, we haven't even been to a mortgage broker. In fact, I think we have decided to stay put for the time being. We'll make it work where we are!

It does appear that the market may have turned over the past 1-2 months. Listings are rocketing upwards, sales "appear" to be really low and slow. Realtors are saying that the market has "stabilized", some are even recommending to not rush into anything. People are talking about the slowing of the market, and friends are advising friends to be careful when looking at purchasing. These are all people that I think were very positive on the market 6 months ago.

Right now, there are 3888 active listings. February 29th there were 3526 active listings. The VREB always seems to state listings in a month to be lower that on this realtor's website. Regardless, VREB should have the active listings number for March to be around 350 higher than February's. That would put their listings at around 3660. This blows away the peak of listings from last year (June - around 3550) and we are only in March! If the number of sales is as low as it appears to be, March's numbers will be very interesting! We'll see how Tony Joe spins this month's numbers.

Listings of SFH priced over $700k is nearly bursting off my chart! There are currently more than 200 SFH listed with an asking price of $1 million or higher. Let's see, if there are 10 sales in that price range, we'd have 20 months supply of million dollars homes. Good grief!

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" report for Victoria for February.

Bold Advertising

I thought today's Tuscany Village ad in the TC was quite bold, considering that RE in Victoria always only goes up. I wonder how choked other developer's are with this ad. Those poor folks who bought years ago for list price - they must be kicking themselves. If you are one of them, don't worry, there will be others in your shoes in the future!

Housing inventory continues to climb. There are 122 more properties for sale since my last posting on January 27. That includes 56 more condos, 57 more SFH, 2 more townhomes. The last 7 must be lots, or trailers, or some other category. Looking at the SFH graph, it's easy to see that inventory is rising faster this year than last.

January 26 Week Ending Stats

No surprises this week. The number of properties listed on MLS continues to grow. 65 more condos listed this week than last, 12 more townhomes, and 25 more SFH.

January 19

Inventory of homes in Greater Victoria is increasing quite rapidly this year. In the past two weeks, there's been an increase of 119 SFH listed on MLS. Since January 7, there's been an increase of 423 active listings in the region. Homes are still selling, but new listings are certainly outpacing the sales (also see what's happening in Vancouver!)

A couple things of note:
- It's nice to see that Canada has their own version of Lawrence Yun and David Lehreah - Gregory Klump! Check this guy out and what he has to say!

- Our favourite condo development gone bad, Tuscany Village, had a couple of interesting sales last year. According to BC Assessments, unit 418 - 1620 McKenzie Ave is assessed at $476000 and sold for $339900 on October 5. Unit 419 - 1620 McKenzie is assessed at $461000 and sold for $346625 on October 9. How would you like to be the person who bought unit 411 - 1620 McKenzie Ave, assessed for $449000, but you paid $500000 (June 27)!!!

- Another Tuscany note, unit 413 - 1620 McKenzie had an asking price of $510195 in May. Today, it is $419900 (MLS#237359). I thought real estate always went up! If you're in the market for a condo, this is the place to make a low ball offer.

- Is the Radius condo / commercial development the next Tuscany Village??? This link from the TC used to work. No longer for me. Anyways, here was the beginning...

Costs stall Radius project
Carolyn Heiman, Times Colonist
Published: Saturday, January 12, 2008
Skyrocketing construction costs, which some experts say are rising 1.5 per cent a month, have temporarily stalled work on the $160-million Radius project, says the developer.
But John Schucht of Waywell Development said the project -- kitty-corner to the Save-on-Foods Memorial Centre -- will resume after a reassessment of construction costs in the region, which he described as "runaway."
Schucht said a construction hiatus was planned for the Christmas holiday but instead of resuming on Jan. 7, the break will be longer. He declined to say how much longer.

December 8 Week Ending Stats

The quantity of SFH listings on the MLS continues to trend downward as we approach Christmas. There are 63 fewer SFH listed this Saturday than last.

Condo listings are trending down also, but not as quickly. There are 27 fewer condos listed today. Townhomes listings are bucking the trend. There is 1 more listing today than last Saturday.

November 17 Week Ending Stats

It's been a couple weeks since I posted week ending stats (to be exact, October 27 was the last). Based on MLS.ca, here is what I've seen since then.

- There are 56 fewer SFH listed. The largest drop in listings is in the $400k to $500k price range (a drop of 22 listings - from 176 to 154)
- There are 20 more condos listed.
- There are 14 more townhomes listed.

Comparing the number of SFH listings this year to last year, even with the decreasing numbers, they don't appear to be dropping as fast. In fact, in the $500k to $600k range, the number of SFH listings has been flat since early August. However, last year on this weekend, there were 1073 SFH listed. Today, 884 listed. The market for SFH under $500k is still very tight.

On a side note, WOW!, unanimous decision on the CMHC. Mohican has started a new blog discussing dissolving the CMHC. Check it out.

October 27 Week Ending Stats

The number of listings on MLS.ca is down this Saturday in comparison to last Saturday. There are 22 fewer SFH, 11 fewer townhomes, and 17 fewer condos.

I'm gonna go out on a limb this week. I'm calling Victoria's average SFH sale price in September ($584193) as the peak average price for Victoria for the next couple years. With winter coming, what's going on in the U.S. and Alberta, and rising mortgage rates, I think we've hit the top. April 2008 will be the first time since March 2007 that Victoria has a year over year decrease in average SFH price. Average monthly prices for the summer of 2008 will be lower than the summer of 2007.

Of course, I am 100% amateur, and have nothing riding on this prediction (aside from house prices moving further from my affordability level if I'm wrong). Put only as much stock into this as you want.

As I write, I have friends bidding on a house in Victoria. As strongly as I feel, I try not to influence their decision. If I am wrong, and they hold back because of me, thus falling further behind the rising prices, I'm partially responsible. I don't want to be. Everyone needs to be responsible for their own decisions. If you are comfortable with the numbers, go ahead and seal the deal. I think that good things will come to those who wait.

Update: My friends bidding on the house did not get it. Reason being - after offers were supposed to be in, the selling realtor continued to show the house, and tell new interested parties what the current high offer was. It's pretty easy to place the highest offer when you know what second place will be. The ethics of some in the realtor profession continue to disappoint me.

October 20 Week Ending Stats

SFH listings on MLS are down slightly this week. Here's a new graph for perspective on how the SFH market has changed from one year ago. I'll probably continue to graph SFH listings numbers in this format from now on.

Condo listings continue to rise. 1243 condos listed on MLS this morning. There were 1214 last Saturday, 1181 two weeks ago, 1138 three weeks ago. This rise in condos listings will put the VREB month end active listings numbers above September 2007 and above October 2006. I think we may actually come close to our peak listings from June of this year. This would put the market at six months of inventory.

In the circle of people I know, a few of them have mentioned that they think the market is softening, and are debating on putting their homes up for sale. They don't need to sell, but if they can get such and such a price, they would sell. That's fine for them, but I don't think that approach is selling homes today. A home in Victoria needs to be very competitively priced to sell quickly. This appears to also apply to new condo and townhome developments.

Take Casa Bella townhomes in Langford in comparison to the townhomes of Reflections, The Pearl on Hillside, and Richmond Gate. Casa Bella has sold like hotcakes, the others are not, to say the least. Casa Bella homes are the same size or larger, and priced less than the others. It doesn't surprise me that they have essentially sold out (21 - three bedroom units). Reflections has not sold one townhome, The Pearl has sold 2 of their 5, Richond Gate has sold 2 of their 6.

I know this sounds like a plug for Casa Bella. It's not intended to be. I think they represented value for your money compared to others. That's what it takes to sell in today's market.

I wonder how long the developers (or whoever put the initial investment forward) of Tuscany Village, Richmond Gate, The Breakwater, The Julia, and others, can hold out before we see some real price decreases.

October 13 Week Ending Stats

The number of condo listings on MLS.ca for Greater Victoria was significantly up again this week. From reading the daily hotsheets, the increase appears to have been partially caused by the additional listings from the new Radius residential project. The number of two bedroom condos available on MLS has increased by 57 in two weeks.

SFH listed on MLS is up by 7 this week, but the total number is still down from previous weeks. Today, there are two SFH listed for under $300k. One year ago, on October 14, there were 33. Today, there are 83 SFH listed for between $300k and $400k. One year ago, 227.

October 6 Week Ending Stats

MLS listings were up and down this week. There are 43 more condo listings today than there were last Saturday. I believe this is largely due to the release of units at the new Radius development. Kudos to them for listing on MLS. This will increase the month end inventory numbers, and thus give a truer picture of the number of homes that are for sale, unlike those condo developments that have hundreds of units for sale, but their inventory numbers are not taken into account by the VREB because they are not listed on MLS. Shame on them.

Single family home listings are down by 27 this week. Victoria is definitely not having the run-up in SFH inventory like cities in Alberta are. This leads me to think that SFH in Victoria are built for home-dwellers, not speculators. Otherwise, we should be seeing more of a rush to the exit, as evidenced in Alberta. Barring external forces, the SFH market should remain steady for a while to come. I wouldn't say the same for the condo market.

I meant to post this earlier in the week. There was an interesting article in Macleans regarding a possible coming recession, titled "Can you say recession?" Hat tip to whoever pointed it out to me - I wish I could remember. If you have the time, give it a read.

September 29 Week Ending Stats

There are 3 more single family homes, 13 more condos, and 7 more townhomes listed on MLS.ca this Saturday over last.

Interestingly, for SFH, the only price ranges that have a decrease in listings today are those priced under $300k and over $700k.

Let's dissect the graph of the number of SFH listings in a price range as a percentage of the whole. Over the past year, the percentage of listings between $500k and $700k has been quite flat. The percentage of listings of homes priced over $700k is nearly a mirror image of the percentage of home priced between $300k - $400k and $400k - $500k. The gradual down slope of homes priced between $300k and $500k has levelled off this past month, which leads me to wonder whether external factors (credit crunch, American MSM, affordability) are having an effect on the lower priced homes. Sales plus delists are not exceeding new listings. Perhaps this is the start of things.

Case and point - a friend was pondering whether to get into the market. About three weeks ago, her realtor pointed out MLS#235514. The house was priced at $399000. In today's hot market, the house was going to sell that weekend. It's three weeks later, the house has not sold, and has had two price reductions, with it now sitting at $379000. How hot is this market? It's definitely cooling.

The Victoria Real Estate Board's September numbers should come out early next week. They should be interesting, but I'm not losing sleep over them. I'm guessing a decrease in SFH average price, an increase in condo and townhome average price. Listings will be up slightly to just over 3400, sales will be between 750 and 800, well above last year. What's your guess?

September 22 Week Ending Stats

The increase in listings of SFH on MLS.ca that we saw last week disappeared this week. There were 31 fewer SFH listed this Saturday than last Saturday. The largest decrease was between $400k and $600k. 29 fewer homes in that price range. Homes priced above $700k, there are 5 more homes listed.

September 15 Week Ending Stats

The number of listings available on MLS.ca for Greater Victoria increased this past week. This includes
- 39 more condos.
- 3 more townhomes.
- 32 more SFH.

The largest increase in listings of SFH by price breakdown was in the $300k to $400k range. There are 10 more houses on MLS.ca in this price range this week.

Even with the increase in SFH listings, the pie chart breakdown is still very top heavy.

I think the increase in listings this past week is the beginning of the traditional run-up of inventory in the fall months. With the associated decrease in sales during fall, the months supply of inventory will increase. The September sales numbers will be very interesting.

September 8 Week Ending Stats

It's September. Fall is coming, the kids are back in school, and housing inventory should start to increase as the number of sales continues decreasing.

There was a slight SFH inventory increase this past week. The biggest changes are 5 fewer homes priced between $300k and $400k and 7 more homes priced between $500k and $600k. As of today, 72% of all single family homes listed on MLS.ca have an asking price of $500000 or higher.

I know this isn't a Calgary or Alberta housing market blog, but I love watching the average sale price posted on CREB's website drop. Calgary's average sale price has gone from $491k on August 23 (the peak was around $507k) to $477.5k today. That's nearly $14k in 16 days! I wonder how many Albertans will be scurrying to purchase our properties as their bubble bursts!

September 1 Week Ending Stats

Short entry today. SFH inventory on MLS.ca up slightly this past week. Townhome and condo inventory down slightly.

Tuesday should bring us August sales numbers. I'm guessing active listings will decrease to between 3300 and 3200 for the month. MLS sales to be above last year - between 750 and 800. Generally, I think sales prices will be down a little, not much. Any other guesses or predictions?

August 25 Week Ending Stats

Single family home listings on MLS.ca are up slightly this week. The largest increase saw 8 more homes listed in the price range of $300k to $400k. There are 11 fewer homes listed in the $400k to $500k range.

Year over year, MLS.ca listings of 2 bedroom condos and 3 bedroom SFH are down significantly from last year. 3 bedroom townhomes listings have decreased since June, but are still up year over year.

Here's a good article to read in the New York Times regarding Countrywide Financial Corp. Housing Panic rants on about this company and it's CEO. I think it's justified. He has not bought a share in his own company since 1987! I'd bet on Countrywide going belly-up. Any guesses on what impact that would have on housing and real estate in Canada?

August 18 Week Ending Stats

The number of active listings of SFH in Greater Victoria continued to decline this week.

- There are 969 SFH currently listed on MLS.ca
- This is 34 less than last week.
- This is 207 fewer listings than our recent peak on June 23 (there were 1176 SFH listings that day)

Houses are either selling or people are delisting their homes. I believe that it is the former. Sold stickers continue to be plastered against realtor signs. The market below $600000 continues to be quite hot, while above $600000, not so hot. I don't have proof, but that's what it appears to be.

It's quite perplexing how inventory is decreasing at this time of the year. Late summer and heading into fall, inventory should be increasing. I think Vancouver is seeing the same happenings. Rob Chipman's inventory is down from the peak of 2 months ago as well.

Possible reasons - a run on the market since interest rates appear (or appeared) to be rising. Perhaps it's the ever increasing popularity of 40 year mortgages. Yet more moms and dads are helping their kids. Any other ideas?

I've added another blog link under "The Nationals" section at the side. Titled "Canadian Mortgage Trends", it looks to contain some good bits of information.