CMHC "Housing Now" for June

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" production for June for Victoria and can be found here.

This house has finally sold. I don't know how many days on the market. Original asking price - $1049000. Sale price - $767000. That's still too much. MLS 245596. More power to them. There was a greater fool.

Too little too late

"It's a bit like closing the barn door after the horse has already run down the road." Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., on today's announcement from the Government of Canada.

The new regulations certainly won't hurt the impending housing collapse.

Also, CMHC released their numbers for June housing starts for Vancouver Island.

CMHC "Housing Now" for April

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" report for April for Greater Victoria.

There are currently 4618 active property listings, approximately 550 more than 1 month ago.

May 24 Week Ending Stats

We live in some crazy times, and they keep getting crazier.

Oil hit $135 a barrel this week, and will go higher. Goldman Sachs is thinking $200 / barrel within 2 years.

Another Canadian bank, RBC, is proclaiming that the Canadian housing boom is over. We all know Alberta's market is slumping and Canada's is slowing dramatically. There are 17286 properties for sale in Greater Vancouver. There is an 11.2 month supply of homes in the US.

Victoria, of course, is no different. Sales have slowed. Inventory doesn't stop rising. Right now, we are at 4522 properties for sale in Greater Victoria.

On the MLS, today we have 154 more SFH listed than one month ago, 170 more condos, and actually 5 fewer townhomes. 2 out of 3 ain't bad!

In case anyone is interested, CMHC has released their 2nd quarter housing market outlook for Victoria.

Oh yeah, thanks for visiting this site and making it an active forum for comments. Let's remember to keep the comments civil and focused more on real estate. Thanks.

April Housing Starts

CMHC's release of April housing starts for Vancouver Island can be found here. Rising housing inventory shows no sign of slowing down.

Has the market turned?

I'm glad to see that this blog keeps going even when I'm absent - just like an energizer bunny!

FYI, we haven't bought, we haven't even been to a mortgage broker. In fact, I think we have decided to stay put for the time being. We'll make it work where we are!

It does appear that the market may have turned over the past 1-2 months. Listings are rocketing upwards, sales "appear" to be really low and slow. Realtors are saying that the market has "stabilized", some are even recommending to not rush into anything. People are talking about the slowing of the market, and friends are advising friends to be careful when looking at purchasing. These are all people that I think were very positive on the market 6 months ago.

Right now, there are 3888 active listings. February 29th there were 3526 active listings. The VREB always seems to state listings in a month to be lower that on this realtor's website. Regardless, VREB should have the active listings number for March to be around 350 higher than February's. That would put their listings at around 3660. This blows away the peak of listings from last year (June - around 3550) and we are only in March! If the number of sales is as low as it appears to be, March's numbers will be very interesting! We'll see how Tony Joe spins this month's numbers.

Listings of SFH priced over $700k is nearly bursting off my chart! There are currently more than 200 SFH listed with an asking price of $1 million or higher. Let's see, if there are 10 sales in that price range, we'd have 20 months supply of million dollars homes. Good grief!

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" report for Victoria for February.

CMHC "Housing Now" Report for November

The November edition of CMHC's "Housing Now" report for Victoria is now available.

Highlights include (the usual):
- robust construction activity.
- low unemployment.
- a slowing in new home starts.

CMHC's construction volume graph changed this month. Last month, construction volume was displayed as a total for Greater Victoria. This month, it's a bar graph for the different regions (figure 1). Perhaps the change is due to the fact that the old graph was downright scary, as under construction numbers are at record highs, and continue increasing.

If Victoria's construction volume dropped from today's number of 3296 units under construction, to historical norms, around 1000 units under construction, I wonder what the city's unemployment level would be. What if construction dropped to 1990's levels?

But of course, that will never happen. Everyone wants to live here and housing will never go down.

CMHC "Housing Now" Report for October

CMHC has released their October "Housing Now" report for Victoria.

November 17 Week Ending Stats

It's been a couple weeks since I posted week ending stats (to be exact, October 27 was the last). Based on MLS.ca, here is what I've seen since then.

- There are 56 fewer SFH listed. The largest drop in listings is in the $400k to $500k price range (a drop of 22 listings - from 176 to 154)
- There are 20 more condos listed.
- There are 14 more townhomes listed.

Comparing the number of SFH listings this year to last year, even with the decreasing numbers, they don't appear to be dropping as fast. In fact, in the $500k to $600k range, the number of SFH listings has been flat since early August. However, last year on this weekend, there were 1073 SFH listed. Today, 884 listed. The market for SFH under $500k is still very tight.

On a side note, WOW!, unanimous decision on the CMHC. Mohican has started a new blog discussing dissolving the CMHC. Check it out.

Lest We Forget...

Thank a veteran this weekend for the sacrifice they made for our freedoms today. Have a great Remembrance Day Weekend!

Some superficial topics to consider
- Stats Canada New Housing Price Index
- CMHC housing starts for October
- City of Victoria's new downtown plans

CMHC Q4 Housing Market Outlook

I'm sorry to interrupt the ongoing commentary. I just wanted to point out that CMHC has released their 4th quarter housing market outlook for Victoria. You can read it here.

Highlights according to CMHC are:
- Victoria's housing industry robust, growth spurred by strong economy.
- Resale market sales to edge down, prices to rise slowly.
- New homebuilding will level off in 2008.
- New home prices to rise.
- Rental vacancies will remain low.

I think I've heard that all before.

CMHC "Housing Now" Report for September

CMHC has released their September 2007 edition of "Housing Now" for Victoria. It can be viewed here.

Highlights include:
- 17.8% fewer starts in September 2007 versus September 2006.
- 21.9% more units under construction this September versus last.

There was a significant average price increase between August and September.

The poll on the sidebar has produced interesting, yet not surprising, results. Most readers of this blog are bearish on real estate, but there are some bulls out there. I think that 2008 will be a critical year for real estate prices. If there are no price declines next year, I will probably start to believe that this time it is different.

September Housing Starts

CMHC has released the housing starts numbers for September. For Victoria, more starts than in August, less than September 2006, fewer year to date in 2007 than 2006. Canada-wide, it was big news.

A sizzling condominium market propelled Canadian housing starts in September to their highest level since 1978, a 19.6 percent monthly jump, which well exceeded analysts' expectations.

Perhaps I'm naive, but I don't quite get it. The housing market in the U.S. is officially in the tank. 50/50 chance of recession there. Good chance we follow. Our population growth isn't exactly setting land speed records. Is it just plain cool to have two or three properties under your belt? Are Canadians still speculating? Who's buying or going to buy all these properties???

CMHC "Housing Now" Report for August

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" report for August for Victoria.

Highlights include
- 70.6% decrease in starts between August 2006 and August 2007.
- 2% decrease in starts year to date from 2006.
- 31.6% increase in units under construction between August 2006 and August 2007.
- Langford (pop. 22500) has 799 units under construction.
- Saanich (pop. 108000) has 536 units under construction.
- Oak Bay has 15 units under construction.

Those last three points aren't really highlights, I just found them to be interesting.

CMHC's average selling price for SFH dropped for the second straight month. The difference between CMHC's average price, which doesn't include waterfront, acreage, duplex, and manufactured home sales, and VREB's average price is very evident for August. The sale of a $5million home certainly skews the average. That's why I believe that median sales price is a better indicator.

August Housing Starts

CMHC's housing starts report showed significant decreases in month over month and year over year housing starts for Greater Victoria. August 2007 had 110 housings starts. In comparison, July 2007 had 236 and August 2006 had 374. The number of housing starts for the year to date has 2007 only slightly behind 2006.

Does this signal anything? Is construction slowing down? I don't believe that one slow month represents a trend. With any new project coming online, next month's starts could be equally impressively high.

July Housing Starts and June New Housing Price Index

CMHC has released July housing starts numbers for Vancouver Island and Victoria. For Victoria, July 2007 housing starts were more than double that of July 2006. Year-to-date, housing starts in Victoria are up 19% in 2007 over 2006.

B.C., as a whole, and nationally, housing starts are down.

Statistics Canada has released the New Housing Price Index for June. Victoria had the second lowest price increase from June 2006 to June 2007, at 0.5%. The lowest price increase belongs to Windsor, ON, at -2.3%.

Go figure. In Victoria, housing starts are up, and prices are stagnant. The rest of Canada is seeing price increases, yet housing starts have decreased. Supply and demand? Looks like it.

CMHC "Housing Now" Report for May

CMHC released the May edition of "Housing Now" for Victoria, yesterday. You can find it here.

There wasn't much new news reported in the report. Victoria's condo construction remains at a 30 year high. Regarding all forms of housing, year to date starts are 11.7% higher than last year. The number of units under construction this May was 55% higher than May 2006. Yet, the number of units absorbed year to date are down 26.3% from last year. There is going to be a major glut of units come on stream in the next couple years. I honestly believe the developers are building too much, too fast, too soon.

Here's the graph of average SFH sale prices comparing the numbers from CMHC and the VREB. CMHC's average is lower because they remove waterfront, acreage, duplex, and manufactured home sales.

May Housing Starts

CMHC has released the housing starts numbers for Victoria for May. You can find them here.

There were 138 housing starts in May. The majority of them came in Langford and Colwood. There were slightly fewer starts in May 2007 than in May 2006. However, for the year to date, housing starts are up nearly 12%.

We continue to see construction volumes not seen since 1976. If you build it, they will come? We'll see. I think there's a storm brewing out at sea.

CMHC "Housing Now" Report for April

CMHC released today the "Housing Now" report for Victoria for April. It can be found here.

I wish that CMHC would release these reports sooner. Today's report is for April, while tomorrow is June. April is old news already.

The big news is the large number of starts in April, combining with the current high level of construction in Greater Victoria. There are currently 3010 housing units under construction, a 45% rise over April of 2006. However, year to date, there is a 17% decrease on the number of units absorbed. Looks like overbuilding to me.

CMHC reports the average price of single detached dwellings from VREB statistics, however, they remove waterfront, acreage, duplex, and manufactured homes. This provides quite a different number for the average price. CMHC's average SFH price for April was $524600. VREB's average SFH price was $568710. That's a difference of $44100. Any ideas why CMHC removes those homes from the equation?

A quick chart comparing CMHC to VREB numbers for SFH average selling price.

April Housing Starts

CMHC has released April statistics for Vancouver Island housing starts. The report can be found here.

Housing starts for Victoria for the year thus far are 15% higher than the January - April period of 2006. April was a big month for Victoria, with 300 new starts, 193 of them being condos in Victoria proper.

"Victoria's under construction volumes have now reached their highest level since September 1976, meaning this generation of builders is experiencing their busiest year ever," said Peggy Prill, Market Analyst at CMHC Victoria.

The Metro Victoria Condo Supply graph is amazing. More than 2000 units under construction! However, the graph shows nearly 0 as inventory. I don't understand that.

Wow, the highest level of home construction in 31 years, more than 2000 condo units under construction. I'm very curious as to what the construction related employment numbers are like for our city. Does anyone have access to this information?

Most of Victoria's large condo developments are due for completion within the next 3 years. As buildings are completed, will new buildings and developments take their place? Are we at a permanently high construction level plateau? If not, what will all the people with construction related jobs do when development slows? I'm guessing that Wendy's and Tim's will have an easier time filling their job vacancies.