Too little too late

"It's a bit like closing the barn door after the horse has already run down the road." Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., on today's announcement from the Government of Canada.

The new regulations certainly won't hurt the impending housing collapse.

Also, CMHC released their numbers for June housing starts for Vancouver Island.

April Housing Starts

CMHC's release of April housing starts for Vancouver Island can be found here. Rising housing inventory shows no sign of slowing down.

February Housing Starts

CMHC has released February's housing starts numbers.

Thus far this year, housing starts are down from 2007. However, we are still at a record number of homes under construction.

What will Victoria's unemployment rate be when the number of homes under construction moves lower to normal levels ( 1/4 of today's homes under construction)????

CMHC "Housing Now" Report for November

The November edition of CMHC's "Housing Now" report for Victoria is now available.

Highlights include (the usual):
- robust construction activity.
- low unemployment.
- a slowing in new home starts.

CMHC's construction volume graph changed this month. Last month, construction volume was displayed as a total for Greater Victoria. This month, it's a bar graph for the different regions (figure 1). Perhaps the change is due to the fact that the old graph was downright scary, as under construction numbers are at record highs, and continue increasing.

If Victoria's construction volume dropped from today's number of 3296 units under construction, to historical norms, around 1000 units under construction, I wonder what the city's unemployment level would be. What if construction dropped to 1990's levels?

But of course, that will never happen. Everyone wants to live here and housing will never go down.

September Housing Starts

CMHC has released the housing starts numbers for September. For Victoria, more starts than in August, less than September 2006, fewer year to date in 2007 than 2006. Canada-wide, it was big news.

A sizzling condominium market propelled Canadian housing starts in September to their highest level since 1978, a 19.6 percent monthly jump, which well exceeded analysts' expectations.

Perhaps I'm naive, but I don't quite get it. The housing market in the U.S. is officially in the tank. 50/50 chance of recession there. Good chance we follow. Our population growth isn't exactly setting land speed records. Is it just plain cool to have two or three properties under your belt? Are Canadians still speculating? Who's buying or going to buy all these properties???

CMHC "Housing Now" Report for August

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" report for August for Victoria.

Highlights include
- 70.6% decrease in starts between August 2006 and August 2007.
- 2% decrease in starts year to date from 2006.
- 31.6% increase in units under construction between August 2006 and August 2007.
- Langford (pop. 22500) has 799 units under construction.
- Saanich (pop. 108000) has 536 units under construction.
- Oak Bay has 15 units under construction.

Those last three points aren't really highlights, I just found them to be interesting.

CMHC's average selling price for SFH dropped for the second straight month. The difference between CMHC's average price, which doesn't include waterfront, acreage, duplex, and manufactured home sales, and VREB's average price is very evident for August. The sale of a $5million home certainly skews the average. That's why I believe that median sales price is a better indicator.

August Housing Starts

CMHC's housing starts report showed significant decreases in month over month and year over year housing starts for Greater Victoria. August 2007 had 110 housings starts. In comparison, July 2007 had 236 and August 2006 had 374. The number of housing starts for the year to date has 2007 only slightly behind 2006.

Does this signal anything? Is construction slowing down? I don't believe that one slow month represents a trend. With any new project coming online, next month's starts could be equally impressively high.

July Housing Starts and June New Housing Price Index

CMHC has released July housing starts numbers for Vancouver Island and Victoria. For Victoria, July 2007 housing starts were more than double that of July 2006. Year-to-date, housing starts in Victoria are up 19% in 2007 over 2006.

B.C., as a whole, and nationally, housing starts are down.

Statistics Canada has released the New Housing Price Index for June. Victoria had the second lowest price increase from June 2006 to June 2007, at 0.5%. The lowest price increase belongs to Windsor, ON, at -2.3%.

Go figure. In Victoria, housing starts are up, and prices are stagnant. The rest of Canada is seeing price increases, yet housing starts have decreased. Supply and demand? Looks like it.

April Housing Starts

CMHC has released April statistics for Vancouver Island housing starts. The report can be found here.

Housing starts for Victoria for the year thus far are 15% higher than the January - April period of 2006. April was a big month for Victoria, with 300 new starts, 193 of them being condos in Victoria proper.

"Victoria's under construction volumes have now reached their highest level since September 1976, meaning this generation of builders is experiencing their busiest year ever," said Peggy Prill, Market Analyst at CMHC Victoria.

The Metro Victoria Condo Supply graph is amazing. More than 2000 units under construction! However, the graph shows nearly 0 as inventory. I don't understand that.

Wow, the highest level of home construction in 31 years, more than 2000 condo units under construction. I'm very curious as to what the construction related employment numbers are like for our city. Does anyone have access to this information?

Most of Victoria's large condo developments are due for completion within the next 3 years. As buildings are completed, will new buildings and developments take their place? Are we at a permanently high construction level plateau? If not, what will all the people with construction related jobs do when development slows? I'm guessing that Wendy's and Tim's will have an easier time filling their job vacancies.

March Housing Starts

CMHC released statistics for Vancouver Island March housing starts yesterday. It can be found here.

For Victoria, new housing starts in March of this year were down significantly from February and from March of last year. Year-to-date housing starts are around the same for this year and last year.

Of note, there were 79 housing starts for greater Victoria. 20 were in Langford, 11 were in Sooke, and 10 were in Victoria proper.

What do you make of the housing starts figure? I don't put too much value on one month's numbers. If the monthly starts continue to be low, then some speculation could be made that something is happening in the industry. However, one low month doesn't say much.

February Housing Starts

CMHC released February's housing starts numbers for Vancouver Island today. The document can be found here.

Greater Victoria has had 389 housing starts thus far this year (Jan - Feb). This is up 6% from the same period last year (367). Not much difference there. However, it is still an increase, and with sales numbers generally lower than last year, this again shows how inventories will continue to increase. Combined, Langford and Colwood have 65% of the February starts for Greater Victoria. I'm a little surprised that Sooke has only 7 starts in February. I thought they were building faster than that out there. Then again, those 7 starts are probably SFH, while a lot of the starts in Langford and Colwood are probably condo / townhomes.

They're going gang-busters in Courtenay this year! 215% increase in starts between 2006 and 2007! Is their population growing that fast???