2008 Poll Review

The little one is finally asleep for a Saturday morning nap. I thought I'd take a look at the old blog. Holy Crap! 215 comments, better write a new post.

First, from my SFH sales monitoring, it looks like January will have an average selling price of around $525000, with the median coming in around $475000. I'd estimate around 130 SFH sales for the month.

I've been meaning for the past month to review the poll I put out there at the beginning of 2008. Of course, it hasn't happened, till now. The results were posted in my January 9, 2008 blog.

At the beginning of 2008, 53% of you were pessimistic about 2008. It all depends on how you look at it. For me, it was a good year. How about for you?

73% thought that Victoria's average SFH selling price would be lower in 2008 than 2007. It wasn't. The average for 2007 was $565904. The average for 2008 was $585701.

52% thought that Canada would enter a recession in 2008. I believe that remains to be seen, as Stats Canada has not released numbers for December yet.

95% knew that the U.S. would enter a recession in 2008.

78% thought that the loonie would remain above par with the greenback. Nope.

13% of us were close to predicting how high oil would rise - $150. The final peak for the year was just over $147 (correct me if I'm wrong).

62% thought we'd go to the polls in 2008. We almost went twice!

92% believed the next U.S. president would be a democrat. How right they were.

January sales numbers come out in a couple days. They should be interesting. Have a great weekend.

Holding their breath

I have a quick question (or two).

These days, how long can a developer hold on to the hope of selling their condo units for nearly the full price after a project has been completed?

How long is it, after a building is completed, yet not sold out, until a developer has a fire sale?

Here's a partial list of developments in Victoria that are completed, or near, and still have units for sale - Bayview, Chelsea, Dockside Green, Aria, Juliet, Redstone, Breakwater, Palladian, Pearl, Vicino, Gateway, Aspen, Tuscany, Centennial Walk, Richmond Gate, Julia, Madrona Creek, Carriage Pointe, Finlayson Reach, Reflections, Stonehaven, Goldstream Station, Strathmore, Tara, La Vie, and I've probably missed some.

Happy New Year! 3 days late...

Happy New Year everyone. God bless, and we'll see what 2009 brings, right? I love roller coasters.

VREB has released the numbers for December. Slow sales, ever so small price increase in SFH and condos. The new VREB prez, Chris Markham, put the usual spin on the numbers. It may be just me, be he doesn't appear to be the eternal optimist that Tony Joe was.

Little Prairiegirl

My wife and I have been blessed with the addition of a little prairiegirl to our family. To say that life changes after having a baby is a absolute understatement! Especially when she likes to have her days and nights reversed. It's supposed to get better though, so we'll get through it, I'm not too worried. However, my blogging may suffer even more than it has lately - if that is possible!

Real estate related, December is turning out to be another slow month. SFH sales should probably come in around 120 - 130 for the month. The average and median sale price are currently hovering around $510k thus far. Of course, any high priced home sales will immediately skew that number.

November Sales Numbers

The VREB has posted the November sales numbers on their website.

I made $41613, tax free, by having not bought a SFH in Victoria in October! Shhhh, not too loud though. I don't want the tax man to find out!

Our months of inventory continues to rise to stratospheric levels. It may soon be showing up on NORAD's radars!

Softening Prices

It looks like this blog has taken on its' own life and become a gold blog. Very interesting, and everyone seems quite opinionated.

The pace of sales of SFH in Greater Victoria has picked up in the latter part of this month. However, it is still historically very slow. We're now looking at around 120 SFH having sold in November. Prices have certainly softened as well. I'm calculating the average selling price for SFH to come in between $530k and $535k. This number would drop the price back to the February 2007 level. The median for the month should come in around $500k.

Total housing inventory for the region has dropped this month. Today, this website states there are 5033 properties for sale. On October 29th, there were 5281 properties for sale.

It will be interesting to see how Tony Joe spins this month.

Quotable Quotes

Cameron Muir, BCREA chief economist, "Homes sales are unlikely to fall much further... That being said we expect home sales not to decline much further." November 15, 2008, Times Colonist.

Tony Joe, Victoria Real Estate Board President, "While we cannot predict the future or remain completely immune from the larger economic forces now at play in the world, we believe much of the recent doom and gloom pessimism regarding the housing market is unwarranted, at least as far as the Victoria area is concerned. Yes, the market has slowed down but we can liken that to some air escaping from the balloon; there is no indication at present that the balloon itself is in danger of bursting. The fundamentals remain strong..." November 15, 2008, Times Colonist, page E9.

Perhaps both of these gentlemen should look at Novembers' sales thus far. I'm estimating that fewer than 100 SFH will have sold in Greater Victoria by the end of this month. Last November there were 310 SFH sales. Not one house has sold in Sooke or Colwood so far this month.

However, the headlines will of course read "Sales slow, prices rebound" as the average SFH selling price thus far in November is near $600000, the median near $550000.

Kiddies, if your mom or dad is a realtor, go easy on them this Christmas. Times are going to be tough for a while longer.

October Sales Numbers

I'm a little late with the sales numbers this month. It's been a busy week...

How the VREB can put a positive spin on this past months numbers is beyond me. Sales were abysmal! The VREB will positive spin anything - if there was 1 sale, with a selling price of one million bucks, the headlines would read "Prices hit a new record, sales soften". Go figure.

Here's the usual graphs...

October's last two days

Victoria's home sales have gone off the cliff this month. My estimate today is similar to what I had after the first 10 days of the month. It looks like there will have been 150 - 170 SFH sold in October in Greater Victoria. Within the past 4 years, the previous lowest monthly sales was December 2005 with 183 sales. It looks like the average sale price will have rebounded from last month - I'm estimating it to be around $570000. The median looks to be between $480k and $490k.

I've heard condo sales have been very slow as well. What's the word on the street?

Week Ending October 11

Due to the recent changes on the MLS.ca website, I'm no longer able to closely track housing inventory numbers as I have in the past. I guess, as a consumer, the changes aren't too bad. I like the mapping, however, it would be nice to be able to search within a defined region.

I am following sales more closely these days. Based on the first 10 days of October, sales have dropped off the side of a cliff. If the trend continues from the first 10 days of the month through to the end, we will be looking at around 150 to 175 SFH sales. The three previous Octobers had 344, 312, and 299 sales, respectively. Median sale price is running around $470000, the average is around $560000 (this due to a $3million home selling in Oak Bay).

Tuesday is our big day in Canada - get out and vote! We have all seen this video on TV or the Internet already, but I think it would be good to give it another view.

Have a great long weekend, and let's remember to be thankful for all of our blessings.