October's last two days

Victoria's home sales have gone off the cliff this month. My estimate today is similar to what I had after the first 10 days of the month. It looks like there will have been 150 - 170 SFH sold in October in Greater Victoria. Within the past 4 years, the previous lowest monthly sales was December 2005 with 183 sales. It looks like the average sale price will have rebounded from last month - I'm estimating it to be around $570000. The median looks to be between $480k and $490k.

I've heard condo sales have been very slow as well. What's the word on the street?

Week Ending October 11

Due to the recent changes on the MLS.ca website, I'm no longer able to closely track housing inventory numbers as I have in the past. I guess, as a consumer, the changes aren't too bad. I like the mapping, however, it would be nice to be able to search within a defined region.

I am following sales more closely these days. Based on the first 10 days of October, sales have dropped off the side of a cliff. If the trend continues from the first 10 days of the month through to the end, we will be looking at around 150 to 175 SFH sales. The three previous Octobers had 344, 312, and 299 sales, respectively. Median sale price is running around $470000, the average is around $560000 (this due to a $3million home selling in Oak Bay).

Tuesday is our big day in Canada - get out and vote! We have all seen this video on TV or the Internet already, but I think it would be good to give it another view.

Have a great long weekend, and let's remember to be thankful for all of our blessings.

September Sales Numbers

That's the last time the average selling price of a single family home in Victoria sold for less than it did this September.

VREB has posted the sales numbers for September. They can be viewed on their website.

VictoriaPANIC?

Another crazy day. Do you think our city of Victoria will ever get to PANIC mode? People do seem a little tense about the recent happenings. Housing is no longer a given, and with so many blue hairs in our city, the stock market is a definite concern. Hopefully people near retirement age have done their financial planning and thrown most of their savings into something secure.

One day until October. I'm still guessing around 280 SFH sales in September, with a median just below $500k and an average around $550k.

If those numbers are close, as a renter I'll have made $20k since last September, as last year's median was $520k. Shucks, that more than pays for this previous year's rent! Maybe a new show for TLC should be Renter Ladder (not Property Ladder), featuring renters climbing the real estate market ladder by not having bought!

The Roller Coaster Continues

This downward portion of the coaster is a little scarier, isn't it? There appears to be uncertainty all around us. Having started our little family, life decisions take on another magnitude of seriousness. The best thing to do may be to hunker down and work hard. Who knows what tomorrow brings! I think it's better to be optimistic, while being realistic, in decision making. I refuse to live in fear all the days of my life.

Regarding non-real estate related comments - it's all good with me. Just keep them family friendly and no personal attacks, please. I think that real estate, the economy, even politics, are intertwined. So go ahead - carry on!

It looks to me like real estate listings continue to increase for Greater Victoria. On September 2, after the month-end drop-off in listings, there were 4836 listings. Today, there are 5109 listings on this realtor's website. That's an increase of 273. 5109 is the highest I have recorded for this year.

As for sales, I'm watching SFH sales more closely these days. It looks to me like the average price for September will be very similar to August, as there have been a number of million dollar homes sold. However, median sales price should be lower than last months'. The number of sales should be higher than August, yet lower than September 2007. If the current trend continues, I'm guessing we'll see around 260 - 280 SFH sold in September for Greater Victoria.

Sorry, I have no idea what's going on with condos and townhomes. Any ideas?

August Sales Numbers

VREB has released the sales numbers for August 2008.

Comments have already started on this site. H/T to HHV and Roger as they have beat me to the punch.

However, here are my usual graphs.

Check out the months of inventory graph. We are so totally into a buyers' market!
More to follow in the coming days!

Is Summer Over?

It sure feels like it. The weather network says that next weekend should be above average temps - I hope so. As for the real estate market, summer is definitely over.

From what I'm seeing, sales of SFH are way down. I'm estimating August sales for SFH to be around 240. From 2005 - 2007, August SFH sales were 350, 328, and 399 respectively. I'm estimating the average sale price for SFH in August to be $560k - $570k. Last year it was $576k. Median should come in around $525k, higher than last year.

I follow SFH much closer than condos or townhomes. I'd guess condo sales will also be below previous Augusts, with a slight month-over-month price decrease. Townhomes, also lower sales, but a steady sales price.

This realtor's website has 5049 properties currently for sale in Greater Victoria. I recorded 4915 properties for sale at the end of July. VREB inventory numbers should increase by around 150, to approximately 4700. August 2007 had around 3350 properties for sale.

What are you seeing in your neighbourhoods? My street block has 6 for sale signs. That's the most I've ever seen here at one time.

Have a great long weekend! Back in September with the monthly stats!

Thursday Freebie

Lots of discussion and comments over the past week - good time to have a create a new post.

Front page of the Financial Post website right now has the following four articles.
- Canadian Housing in "Sustained downturn"
- Construction plans plunge, StatsCan reports
- House sales slip, prices stable
- Housing slump hits home

Also, from the Globe and Mail - Victoria's market is 30 to 35% overvalued.

Wow, everyone is so negative all of a sudden. Go figure! Have they been reading those bear blogs???

July Sales Numbers

2008 will certainly mark the beginning of the bear run. In July, sales continued to decrease, inventory remained high, and prices have rounded the corner and are dropping. The VREB stats can be found at their website.

Median sale price of SFH dropped for the 4th consecutive month and is 2.9% higher than July 2007.

Median condo sale price is the lowest since August 2007. Sales are 31% lower than July 2007. If this does not have the condo developers getting worried, then I have no idea what will.

Townhome sales are an anomaly. Median sale price was the second highest on record, however, sales are down 50% from July 2007.

Months of inventory of all properties jumped over the 7 month mark. This is the highest of all data I have access to (dating back to 2005).

CMHC "Housing Now" for June

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" production for June for Victoria and can be found here.

This house has finally sold. I don't know how many days on the market. Original asking price - $1049000. Sale price - $767000. That's still too much. MLS 245596. More power to them. There was a greater fool.