Thursday, April 26, 2007

BCREA Housing Forecast for Victoria

The British Columbia Real Estate Association released it's first semi-annual housing forecast report today. It can be found here.

The conspiracist inside me poses a question. The question is not in regards to the content of the report. That can be discussed later. The question is, why has the BCREA come out with a housing forecast report, and why now?

Is it because they are seeing the market move in a direction that does not benefit them?

Perhaps, the purpose of the report is to renew buyers' confidence in the market. The report states that despite the shift in housing market conditions, "it is a gradual return to a balanced market". People need to hear this over and over again to feel confident in the market, and then go out there and buy that big house. I'm no different. If I keep hearing "it's a balanced market", "prices will keep rising", and "the economy is strong", I'll believe it and get mortgaged over my head. However, if the contrary is spoken, along the line of what Robert Shiller is saying these days, and then heeded, well, I'm gonna find a nice house to rent, and sign a 5 year lease.

Why did the BCREA not start putting out housing forecast reports 1, 2, 5 years ago? (or did they?) Is it because the market needed no pumping up back then?

From the BCREA website, on who they are, "The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) promotes the interests of the real estate profession on behalf of its member boards". The BCREA represents Realtors. Their profession suffers in a declining market. They have a vested interest in the real estate market. Therefore, their reports need to be examined with scrutiny.

Now to the report itself. Sales down, prices up. 'Nuf said.