With regards to new home prices, Victoria is leading the country. Not in the year to year increase, but rather, the year to year decrease! New home prices have fallen 1.2% between April 2006 and April 2007. In fact, they fell 0.9% between March and April of this year! The only other city to have an annual decrease in prices was Windsor.
I'm not dreaming this up. These are Stats Canada figures that were released today. You can read it here.
Edmonton remains on a tear. Up 40.5% in the past year. That's gonna be a painful fall. Wait, I thought everyone wanted to live here!? Once again, apparently not.
I doubt that the local media will be reporting on this one...
Monday, June 11, 2007
Sunday, June 10, 2007
May Housing Starts
CMHC has released the housing starts numbers for Victoria for May. You can find them here.
There were 138 housing starts in May. The majority of them came in Langford and Colwood. There were slightly fewer starts in May 2007 than in May 2006. However, for the year to date, housing starts are up nearly 12%.
We continue to see construction volumes not seen since 1976. If you build it, they will come? We'll see. I think there's a storm brewing out at sea.
There were 138 housing starts in May. The majority of them came in Langford and Colwood. There were slightly fewer starts in May 2007 than in May 2006. However, for the year to date, housing starts are up nearly 12%.
We continue to see construction volumes not seen since 1976. If you build it, they will come? We'll see. I think there's a storm brewing out at sea.
Saturday, June 9, 2007
June 9 Week Ending Stats
MLS single family home listings took a drop in the first days of June. The number of listings rebounded slightly this past week. SFHs listed are not at the level they were at the end of May. The number of SFH listed for under $500k continues to decreases, while the quantity of SFH listed for above $500k continues to increase.
Where will the rising trend of expensive home listings end? More than 38% of SFH listed have an asking price of more than $700000. Will there at some time be more than 50% of SFH listings with an asking price higher than $700k? Are all asking prices migrating upwards, or are the expensive SFHs not selling?
Even as the number of luxury SFH listed continues to increase, the median sale price of SFH for Greater Victoria has decreased the past 2 months. This points to a weak high-end SFH market, and strong demand for entry level homes. (I don't believe a $400k home is truly an entry level home. Simply, that's what double income no kid couples are willing to take on as a mortgage.) The day that people start to listen and believe that these are ridiculous prices is the day that things change.
There were 184 SFH with a million dollar plus price tag available today.
Where will the rising trend of expensive home listings end? More than 38% of SFH listed have an asking price of more than $700000. Will there at some time be more than 50% of SFH listings with an asking price higher than $700k? Are all asking prices migrating upwards, or are the expensive SFHs not selling?
Even as the number of luxury SFH listed continues to increase, the median sale price of SFH for Greater Victoria has decreased the past 2 months. This points to a weak high-end SFH market, and strong demand for entry level homes. (I don't believe a $400k home is truly an entry level home. Simply, that's what double income no kid couples are willing to take on as a mortgage.) The day that people start to listen and believe that these are ridiculous prices is the day that things change.
There were 184 SFH with a million dollar plus price tag available today.
Wednesday, June 6, 2007
Focus on Condo Sales
Using stats given by the VREB, I've done up graphs of median condo sale prices and condo sales numbers for Greater Victoria, Victoria proper, Saanich, and Langford. I was hoping that by creating these graphs, I'd have some great revelation. I didn't, but you might.
Greater Victoria has shown quite consistent sales numbers for the past 2 years. It appears that the median price has or is peaking, as increases since last summer have been marginal.
Victoria proper has seen strong sales thus far this year. There are still some significant year-over-year median price increases.
Sales in Saanich (East and West), with the exception of February and April, have been slightly less than previous years. Median prices appear to have stalled out as well.
Langford sales, thus far this year, have been similar to the past two years. Of course, May 2006 was an anomaly. Prices have been all over, but do appear to still be rising.
I've also thrown together a graph for the year-over-year median price increases. There is definitely a downward trend. This past month, Langford had the first YOY negative median price increase.
Greater Victoria has shown quite consistent sales numbers for the past 2 years. It appears that the median price has or is peaking, as increases since last summer have been marginal.
Victoria proper has seen strong sales thus far this year. There are still some significant year-over-year median price increases.
Sales in Saanich (East and West), with the exception of February and April, have been slightly less than previous years. Median prices appear to have stalled out as well.
Langford sales, thus far this year, have been similar to the past two years. Of course, May 2006 was an anomaly. Prices have been all over, but do appear to still be rising.
I've also thrown together a graph for the year-over-year median price increases. There is definitely a downward trend. This past month, Langford had the first YOY negative median price increase.
Friday, June 1, 2007
May Sales Numbers
The Victoria Real Estate Board released the May sales statistics today. I definitely appreciate the promptness of VREB in releasing the monthly numbers. Thanks!
So, sales are up, listings are up, but prices are down slightly. If the average SFH selling price was about $200000 less, I'd say Victoria was in a pretty good real estate / housing market position. However, average and medians are still ridiculous.
I expected the monthly inventory to be higher than it was. Active listings for May was 3462. With the high number of sales, 963, we currently have 3.6 months of inventory. According to that, we are still in a seller's market. However, if you add to the inventory the thousands of condos and townhomes you could buy today but are not listed on MLS, the picture changes.
Saanich, Sooke, and Langford had busy SFH sales months. It's pretty amazing how the real estate face of Langford is changing. Can you believe that the average selling price of a home in Langford (let's say it with a twang) is over 1/2 million dollars! Some of those homes on Bear Mountain must be selling. It surprises me because watching the listings for the region on MLS is like watching Fred Flintstone run past the same rock and window over and over again.
Victoria proper didn't have a huge number of SFH sales, and the median and average prices took a hit. Again, there was a significant number of waterfront homes sold, skewing the numbers.
The condo market is showing signs of softening. May 2007 had a drop of 11% in sales versus May 2006. Also, even with the increased sales number for this past month, 11 fewer condos sold in May than April. Average selling price was $6000 less than the 6 month average. I've heard others say that the first market segment to show signs of weakness in a declining housing market is the condo market. I'd say that we are seeing that now.
Townhome sales were strong in May - 83 sales with an increase in average selling price. There were 20 townhomes sold in Saanich East!
I'm happy to announce that I didn't go into a bout of depression after reading this months numbers. As "strong" as they were, this was a bearish month. Inventory is continuing to rise, affordability is going nowhere, and we know that interest rate hikes are coming. Prices dropped slightly, but it was nothing that I am going to write home about.
The Bears are on the scoreboard with a field goal. The score is Bulls 16, Bears 3, with 5 minutes left in the 1st half.
So, sales are up, listings are up, but prices are down slightly. If the average SFH selling price was about $200000 less, I'd say Victoria was in a pretty good real estate / housing market position. However, average and medians are still ridiculous.
I expected the monthly inventory to be higher than it was. Active listings for May was 3462. With the high number of sales, 963, we currently have 3.6 months of inventory. According to that, we are still in a seller's market. However, if you add to the inventory the thousands of condos and townhomes you could buy today but are not listed on MLS, the picture changes.
Saanich, Sooke, and Langford had busy SFH sales months. It's pretty amazing how the real estate face of Langford is changing. Can you believe that the average selling price of a home in Langford (let's say it with a twang) is over 1/2 million dollars! Some of those homes on Bear Mountain must be selling. It surprises me because watching the listings for the region on MLS is like watching Fred Flintstone run past the same rock and window over and over again.
Victoria proper didn't have a huge number of SFH sales, and the median and average prices took a hit. Again, there was a significant number of waterfront homes sold, skewing the numbers.
The condo market is showing signs of softening. May 2007 had a drop of 11% in sales versus May 2006. Also, even with the increased sales number for this past month, 11 fewer condos sold in May than April. Average selling price was $6000 less than the 6 month average. I've heard others say that the first market segment to show signs of weakness in a declining housing market is the condo market. I'd say that we are seeing that now.
Townhome sales were strong in May - 83 sales with an increase in average selling price. There were 20 townhomes sold in Saanich East!
I'm happy to announce that I didn't go into a bout of depression after reading this months numbers. As "strong" as they were, this was a bearish month. Inventory is continuing to rise, affordability is going nowhere, and we know that interest rate hikes are coming. Prices dropped slightly, but it was nothing that I am going to write home about.
The Bears are on the scoreboard with a field goal. The score is Bulls 16, Bears 3, with 5 minutes left in the 1st half.
Thursday, May 31, 2007
CMHC "Housing Now" Report for April
CMHC released today the "Housing Now" report for Victoria for April. It can be found here.
I wish that CMHC would release these reports sooner. Today's report is for April, while tomorrow is June. April is old news already.
The big news is the large number of starts in April, combining with the current high level of construction in Greater Victoria. There are currently 3010 housing units under construction, a 45% rise over April of 2006. However, year to date, there is a 17% decrease on the number of units absorbed. Looks like overbuilding to me.
CMHC reports the average price of single detached dwellings from VREB statistics, however, they remove waterfront, acreage, duplex, and manufactured homes. This provides quite a different number for the average price. CMHC's average SFH price for April was $524600. VREB's average SFH price was $568710. That's a difference of $44100. Any ideas why CMHC removes those homes from the equation?
A quick chart comparing CMHC to VREB numbers for SFH average selling price.
I wish that CMHC would release these reports sooner. Today's report is for April, while tomorrow is June. April is old news already.
The big news is the large number of starts in April, combining with the current high level of construction in Greater Victoria. There are currently 3010 housing units under construction, a 45% rise over April of 2006. However, year to date, there is a 17% decrease on the number of units absorbed. Looks like overbuilding to me.
CMHC reports the average price of single detached dwellings from VREB statistics, however, they remove waterfront, acreage, duplex, and manufactured homes. This provides quite a different number for the average price. CMHC's average SFH price for April was $524600. VREB's average SFH price was $568710. That's a difference of $44100. Any ideas why CMHC removes those homes from the equation?
A quick chart comparing CMHC to VREB numbers for SFH average selling price.
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
The Banks Want Your Money... And Your House!
The City of Langford has an affordable housing program where developers are required to put 10 percent of the houses they build into an affordable housing pool. These homes are sold to families residing in Langford, who do not own real estate, have less that $50000 in assets, and have a family income of less than $60000 / year. The homes are sold at a set value, currently $160000.
It turns out that the big banks will not approve mortgages for these homes, as they do not control the home in the event of a foreclosure. In such a case, the home is returned to the affordable housing pool, and resold at the original selling price. However, there are other lenders willing to take on those mortgages.
I'd assume that those same banks would approve a mortgage of that size to the same family if it was for a home not in the affordable housing pool. Like a beast waiting to devour, the bank would take possession of that foreclosed house. I must be a little naive, because it doesn't quite make sense to me. I guess that in a rising real estate market, the banks believe that they would profit from controlling a foreclosed home. As is happening in the U.S., in a falling market, lending standards are getting tighter, and perhaps that same family would not get mortgage approval regardless of whether the home is an affordable housing pool home or not.
The related news article can be found here.
Info on the affordable housing program can be found here.
It turns out that the big banks will not approve mortgages for these homes, as they do not control the home in the event of a foreclosure. In such a case, the home is returned to the affordable housing pool, and resold at the original selling price. However, there are other lenders willing to take on those mortgages.
I'd assume that those same banks would approve a mortgage of that size to the same family if it was for a home not in the affordable housing pool. Like a beast waiting to devour, the bank would take possession of that foreclosed house. I must be a little naive, because it doesn't quite make sense to me. I guess that in a rising real estate market, the banks believe that they would profit from controlling a foreclosed home. As is happening in the U.S., in a falling market, lending standards are getting tighter, and perhaps that same family would not get mortgage approval regardless of whether the home is an affordable housing pool home or not.
The related news article can be found here.
Info on the affordable housing program can be found here.
Monday, May 28, 2007
The Falls are Going Down
I received a glossy Bob Rennie marketing brochure for "The Falls" in the mail today. Prices are going down. The website for the development states that residences are $389000 to $499000. The brochure states that they are priced from $384000. Only a $5000 difference, but it's a lowering of prices, not an increase. The longer you wait, the more you'll save...
Saturday, May 26, 2007
May 26 Week Ending Stats
The number of listings of SFH on MLS.ca continued along the same trend lines this week as the past couple. This week, there are 6 fewer SFH listed under $500k and 27 more SFH listed for over $500k. More than 66% of all SFH listed on MLS have an asking price of $500k or higher. The good news is that more than 33% of SFH are listed for under $500k - very affordable! Yeah right.
Pie chart.
Graph.
Graph.
Month end is upon us this upcoming week. My sales number and price predictions have no basis and are usually wrong, therefore I'm not going to bother. However, it's safe to say that active listings are continuing to rise. In mid-May, CFAX1070 had it's weekly real estate cheerleading bit with a representative from VREB. The rep said that at that time, there were 3500 active listings in Greater Victoria. Based on their statement, and how the listing numbers are looking from this month, I'd say that the number of active listings for the region in May will ring in around 3600. Last year, there were 2900 active listings. That equates to a 24% rise year-over-year.
For comparison's sake, what's the difference in population to active listings ratio between Vancouver and Victoria (I like how Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking does this). My numbers won't be exact. Greater Vancouver - population (2006) 2181000. Listings (from Chipman) 12077. Ratio = 1:181. Greater Victoria - population (2006) 345000. Listings (from MLS today) 2262. Ratio = 1:153.
Well, maybe it's not that significant. Interesting, nevertheless. Another comparison. Phoenix currently has a ratio of 1:68. We have a ways to go.
Pie chart.
Graph.
Graph.
Month end is upon us this upcoming week. My sales number and price predictions have no basis and are usually wrong, therefore I'm not going to bother. However, it's safe to say that active listings are continuing to rise. In mid-May, CFAX1070 had it's weekly real estate cheerleading bit with a representative from VREB. The rep said that at that time, there were 3500 active listings in Greater Victoria. Based on their statement, and how the listing numbers are looking from this month, I'd say that the number of active listings for the region in May will ring in around 3600. Last year, there were 2900 active listings. That equates to a 24% rise year-over-year.
For comparison's sake, what's the difference in population to active listings ratio between Vancouver and Victoria (I like how Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking does this). My numbers won't be exact. Greater Vancouver - population (2006) 2181000. Listings (from Chipman) 12077. Ratio = 1:181. Greater Victoria - population (2006) 345000. Listings (from MLS today) 2262. Ratio = 1:153.
Well, maybe it's not that significant. Interesting, nevertheless. Another comparison. Phoenix currently has a ratio of 1:68. We have a ways to go.
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Victoria Residential Development Projects - Rev B
Here's another go at the current, recent past, and approved future condo and townhome projects in Greater Victoria. I think I may have included one or two SFH developments - feel free to let me know and I'll remove it.
Total number of units - 5187. That's some serious inventory. My count of the number sold is 984. Don't put much stock in that number. As you can see, there are a lot of question marks throughout the table.
My thoughts - the developers are still on full throttle, straight ahead! Are they right about the future of Victoria's housing market? They are vesting a LOT of financal resources. These are smart people, they know what is happening in the US, yet they must feel that things will be different here. I don't know. Seeing the developers propose more and more, it makes me question my stance. However, when I look at the numbers, the inventory, the quantity of units sold, I think they must be crazy. Maybe they aren't. The next couple years will be very interesting. Enjoy!
Total number of units - 5187. That's some serious inventory. My count of the number sold is 984. Don't put much stock in that number. As you can see, there are a lot of question marks throughout the table.
My thoughts - the developers are still on full throttle, straight ahead! Are they right about the future of Victoria's housing market? They are vesting a LOT of financal resources. These are smart people, they know what is happening in the US, yet they must feel that things will be different here. I don't know. Seeing the developers propose more and more, it makes me question my stance. However, when I look at the numbers, the inventory, the quantity of units sold, I think they must be crazy. Maybe they aren't. The next couple years will be very interesting. Enjoy!
| Name | Address | Units | Sold | Year | $/sqft | Web | VV |
| Bayview Phase I | Victoria | 101 | ? | 2008 | ? | W | VV |
| Bayview Phase II | Victoria | ? | ? | 2008 | ? | W | VV |
| Bayview Phase III | Victoria | ? | ? | 2008 | ? | W | VV |
| Castana | Victoria | 37 | 32 | 2008? | 500 | W | - |
| Synergy - Dockside Green | Victoria | 100 | ? | 2008 | ? | - | VV |
| Balance - Dockside Green | Victoria | 100 | ? | 2009 | ? | W | VV |
| Aria | Victoria | 212 | ? | 2007 | 490- 525 | W | VV |
| Juliet | Victoria | 95 | 38 | 2008 | ? | W | VV |
| Mayfair Walk | Victoria | 30 | 26 | 2007 | 250- 430 | W | - |
| Oswego | Victoria | 80 | ? | 2007 | 434- 571 | W | VV |
| Parkside Victoria | Victoria | 400 | ? | 2008 | ? | W | VV |
| Redstone Townhomes | Victoria | 9 | 1 | 2007 | 501- 620 | W | - |
| Shutters | Victoria | 185 | 185 | 2007 | ? | W | VV |
| The Breakwater | Victoria | 19 | 5 | 2007? | 379- 510 | W | - |
| The Falls | Victoria | 155 | ? | 2009 | 578 -? | W | VV |
| The Palladian | Victoria | 29 | 5 | 2007 | 350- 522 | W | - |
| Vicino | Victoria | 39 | 24 | 2007 | ? | W | - |
| The Gateway at The Railyards | Victoria | 62 | 23 | 2007? | 383- 502 | W | - |
| The Chelsea | Victoria | 66 | 22 | 2008? | 545- 850 | W | - |
| The Adria | Victoria | 21 | ? | 2006 | 441- 481 | W | - |
| The Harriet Gardens | Victoria | 24 | 24 | 2007 | 315- 334 | W | - |
| Cherry Bank Hotel Condos | Victoria | 51 | ? | 2008 | ? | - | - |
| The Leiser Building | Victoria | ? | ? | ? | ? | W | - |
| Vogue Lofts | Victoria | 22 | 22 | ? | ? | W | - |
| The SoHo | Victoria | 15 | 8 | 2007 | 363- 446 | W | - |
| The Hudson Tower I | Victoria | 178 | ? | 2010 | ? | W | VV |
| The Hudson Tower II | Victoria | 129 | ? | 2012 | ? | W | VV |
| The Hudson Tower III | Victoria | 85 | ? | 2013 | ? | W | VV |
| Radius Residential | Victoria | 118 | ? | 2009 | ? | W | VV |
| Oak Bay Beach Hotel | Oak Bay | ? | ? | 2009 | ? | W | - |
| Admirals Landing | Esquimalt | 40 | 5 | 2007? | 348- 478 | W | - |
| Swallow’s Landing | Esquimalt | 110 | ? | 2007 | 535 - ? | W | VV |
| The Greenside at Gorge Vale | Esquimalt | 36 | 36 | 2007? | 360 | W | - |
| The Ironwood at Gorge Vale Phase 4 | Esquimalt | 8 | 7 | 2007? | 364 | W | - |
| The Anchorage | Esquimalt | 41 | ? | ? | 380- 621 | W | - |
| Carey Hill Walk | Saanich | 38 | 24 | 2007 | 322- 412 | W | - |
| Amara | Saanich | 36 | 33 | 2007 | 380- 400 | W | - |
| Oak Street Village | Saanich | 37 | 9 | 2008? | 290- 473 | W | - |
| Richmond Gate | Saanich | 54 | 36 | 2007? | 343- 490 | W | - |
| The Julia | Saanich | 30 | ? | 2007 | 372- 420 | W | - |
| Tuscany Village | Saanich | 91 | 51 | 2007 | 430- 484 | W | - |
| Sayward Hill | Saanich | 34 | 20 | 2007? | 384- 645 | W | - |
| Laval Lane | Saanich | ? | ? | ? | ? | W | - |
| Viewmont Heights | Saanich | 46 | 19 | ? | 308- 466 | W | - |
| Cedar Lane | Saanich | ? | ? | ? | ? | W | - |
| Centennial Walk | Saanich | ? | ? | 2008 | ? | W | - |
| Carriage Point | Central Saanich | 26 | ? | 2007? | 369 | W | - |
| Holly Farm Townhomes | Central Saanich | 15 | 10 | 2007? | ? | W | - |
| 4570 Elk Lake Drive | Central Saanich | 47 | ? | ? | ? | - | - |
| The Pier | North Saanich | 70 | ? | 2007 | 581- 618 | W | VV |
| Pacific Place Condos | North Saanich | 10 | ? | ? | ? | W | - |
| The Meadows | North Saanich | 59 | ? | ? | ? | W | - |
| Harbour Landing | North Saanich | 5 | ? | ? | 575- 725 | W | - |
| The Aspen | View Royal | 75 | ? | 2008? | 340- 400 | W | - |
| South Valley Estates Townhomes | View Royal | 19 | 2 | ? | 250 | W | - |
| Royal Roads Place | Colwood | 163 | ? | 2009 | ? | - | VV |
| Wale Road Tower | Colwood | ? | ? | 2009 | ? | - | VV |
| Aquattro Tower I | Colwood | ? | ? | ? | ? | W | VV |
| Aquattro Tower II | Colwood | ? | ? | ? | ? | W | VV |
| Aquattro Tower III | Colwood | ? | ? | ? | ? | W | VV |
| Copperwood Condos | Colwood | 50 | 20 | 2008? | ? | W | - |
| Latoria Walk | Colwood | ? | ? | 2008? | ? | W | - |
| Madrona Creek | Colwood | ? | ? | ? | ? | W | - |
| The Lookout at Royal Bay | Colwood | 30 | ? | ? | ? | W | - |
| Hatley Ridge | Colwood | 12 | ? | ? | 212- 262 | W | - |
| Soaring Peaks | Langford | 201 | ? | 2009 | ? | W | VV |
| Citiwalk | Langford | 55 | 55 | Completed | 300 | W | - |
| McConnell Place | Langford | 46 | ? | 2007 | 312- 357 | W | - |
| Reflections | Langford | 114 | 55 | 2008 | 366- 442 | W | VV |
| The Conductor | Langford | ? | ? | 2008 | ? | W | VV |
| The Highlander | Langford | 203 | ? | 2008 | ? | W | VV |
| The Strathmore | Langford | 45 | 18 | 2008 | 263- 348 | W | - |
| The Deville Phase III | Langford | 8 | 8 | 2007 | 200- 299 | W | - |
| Jacklin / Sooke Road Tower | Langford | ? | ? | 2009? | ? | - | VV |
| Woodrun | Langford | 8 | 5 | ? | ? | W | - |
| Stonehaven | Langford | 32 | ? | ? | ? | W | - |
| Finlayson Reach | Langford | 144 | ? | ? | ? | W | - |
| St. Andrew’s Walk | Langford | 135 | 135 | ? | ? | W | - |
| Tara on Deville | Langford | ? | ? | ? | ? | W | - |
| Casa Bella Townhomes | Langford | 21 | 4 | ? | 214- 251 | W | - |
| The Way Townhomes | Langford | 20 | ? | ? | 234 | - | - |
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