August Sales Numbers

HHV and Roger beat me to the punch for commentary on the VREB's release of the August sales numbers. Check out their blogs for some great insight.

All that's left is for me to bore you with some graphs, and an update to the football score.

Median single family home prices. Ouch, how the median in Victoria is dropping. The rest of the Capital Region District is really having to take up the slack.

Looking at sales of SFH in the past two years, the number of sales is higher this year. Median price appreciation continues at double digit or high single digit gains.

Condo sales numbers continue to be strong. However, the median price appreciation has been marginal the past couple of months.

This summer has been hot for sales of townhomes in Greater Victoria. The median sales price has been flat the past four months.

And finally, the Bears have scored a touchdown this month. The average sales price for condos and townhomes were lower than the six month rolling average. Without the sale of the $5million+ home in Oak Bay, average price of SFH would also have been lower than the six month average. Score: Bulls 26 Bears 10.

September 1 Week Ending Stats

Short entry today. SFH inventory on MLS.ca up slightly this past week. Townhome and condo inventory down slightly.

Tuesday should bring us August sales numbers. I'm guessing active listings will decrease to between 3300 and 3200 for the month. MLS sales to be above last year - between 750 and 800. Generally, I think sales prices will be down a little, not much. Any other guesses or predictions?

CMHC "Housing Now" Report for July

First things first, for VG, here's the front page of the Edmonton Sun from earlier this week.

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" report for July. Housing starts for July 2007 were up 116.5% from July 2006. Year to date, starts are 18.9% higher in 2007.

Housing units under construction has the wow factor. There are 3278 housing units currently under construction in Greater Victoria. This is 52% higher than last July. Of that number, 2252 of those units are condos!

CMHC's average SFH selling price dropped slightly from June to July. Looking at their sales-to-active listings ratio, it appears to still be a sellers market. The townhome and condos markets are not quite as hot as the SFH market. Average selling price showed a month-over-month drop for both townhomes and condos.

Alberta's Wealth Rollercoaster

Hat tip to anonymous at 5:21pm. How do like the front page of the Edmonton Sun today? I dare say, it will be a cold day you-know-where before the local media puts a title like this on their front page!

The whole article can be found here. Average sale price in Calgary continues to drop as well.

Remember buddy here who bought two condos at Bear Mountain last fall? Unless he is independently wealthy, how long before him, and the tens of dozens of other Albertans, Americans, Irish, whoever, that bought condos out here as investments, start to sell off their properties because their artificial wealth back home has whithered away? How long before our active MLS listings hits 4000, 5000, 6000??? When will it start to skyrocket? And how high will it go?










Perhaps, an applicable analogy is to liken our current listings inventory to a rubber band. It continues to be stretched until finally, it's released, and away it goes!

August 25 Week Ending Stats

Single family home listings on MLS.ca are up slightly this week. The largest increase saw 8 more homes listed in the price range of $300k to $400k. There are 11 fewer homes listed in the $400k to $500k range.

Year over year, MLS.ca listings of 2 bedroom condos and 3 bedroom SFH are down significantly from last year. 3 bedroom townhomes listings have decreased since June, but are still up year over year.

Here's a good article to read in the New York Times regarding Countrywide Financial Corp. Housing Panic rants on about this company and it's CEO. I think it's justified. He has not bought a share in his own company since 1987! I'd bet on Countrywide going belly-up. Any guesses on what impact that would have on housing and real estate in Canada?

Writer's Block

Sorry folks. I haven't been posting or writing or much of anything lately. I've recently switched positions at work and have been coming home pretty beat. I've got a little case of writer's block and I feel a little real estated out.

I'm getting tired of the constant cheer leading of the local real estate market by the media. I can't comprehend how they can say, in the same breath, that the U.S. market is so up the creek, but here in Victoria, prices will NEVER go down!

I have been enjoying the stock market roller-coaster over the past couple weeks. I'd sure love to be able to drink coffee and watch CNBC all day. It's like watching a basketball game!

I'm also finding the Alberta market quite interesting. Inventory is through the roof in Edmonton (and Calgary). Calgary's Real Estate Board has a 30 day rolling average selling price. It's been going down the past couple weeks. It was over $500k (up to around $507k I believe), and currently sits at $491k. I wonder if Alberta's market will be a sign of things to come for us.

Please carry on with the great comments! Thanks!

August 18 Week Ending Stats

The number of active listings of SFH in Greater Victoria continued to decline this week.

- There are 969 SFH currently listed on MLS.ca
- This is 34 less than last week.
- This is 207 fewer listings than our recent peak on June 23 (there were 1176 SFH listings that day)

Houses are either selling or people are delisting their homes. I believe that it is the former. Sold stickers continue to be plastered against realtor signs. The market below $600000 continues to be quite hot, while above $600000, not so hot. I don't have proof, but that's what it appears to be.

It's quite perplexing how inventory is decreasing at this time of the year. Late summer and heading into fall, inventory should be increasing. I think Vancouver is seeing the same happenings. Rob Chipman's inventory is down from the peak of 2 months ago as well.

Possible reasons - a run on the market since interest rates appear (or appeared) to be rising. Perhaps it's the ever increasing popularity of 40 year mortgages. Yet more moms and dads are helping their kids. Any other ideas?

I've added another blog link under "The Nationals" section at the side. Titled "Canadian Mortgage Trends", it looks to contain some good bits of information.

Condemnation

A couple of note worthy articles in today's TC.

Four Rental Buildings Condemned. The landlord refuses to perform any upkeep on the buildings, and voila! Let's tear down the buildings and do something different - build luxury condos!

Unbuilt Building Condemned. Well, not quite. The Wing condo project in Vic West continues to be an eyesore, yet the local community association doesn't appear to want to do anything about it. I don't get the statement from Diane Carr "... it's not the community's obligation to make up for a bad investment on the part of the investors. That's not our problem." Alright, then forget about offers from developers who want to do something with that mess, and enjoy your eyesore!

I think that Victoria is being overbuilt at this time, however, I would sooner have a building, that perhaps doesn't please everyone, than an eyesore empty concrete-laden lot. My $0.02.

What do you think?

A local developer has approached me with an idea of theirs and would like some feedback. I offered to post their idea, and ask your opinions of it. Here goes...

A new home has been built in the city - 2000 sq. ft., maple, granite, wired for home theatre, all the good stuff. Rent would be set at $2500 / month. After one year, the renter would have the option of using their rent paid during the year ($30000) as a down payment on the purchase of the home. The home has an asking price of $500k. If the renter provides an additional $30000 for the down payment, the developer will borrow the renter an additional $40000 (at a 9% interest rate) for down payment. Total down payment would then equal $100k. As this is 20% of the purchase price, the purchaser qualifies for a conventional mortgage.

What do you think?

July Housing Starts and June New Housing Price Index

CMHC has released July housing starts numbers for Vancouver Island and Victoria. For Victoria, July 2007 housing starts were more than double that of July 2006. Year-to-date, housing starts in Victoria are up 19% in 2007 over 2006.

B.C., as a whole, and nationally, housing starts are down.

Statistics Canada has released the New Housing Price Index for June. Victoria had the second lowest price increase from June 2006 to June 2007, at 0.5%. The lowest price increase belongs to Windsor, ON, at -2.3%.

Go figure. In Victoria, housing starts are up, and prices are stagnant. The rest of Canada is seeing price increases, yet housing starts have decreased. Supply and demand? Looks like it.