December 1 Week Ending Stats

The number of listings of homes of all types continues to decline. This can be attributed to the fact that it's only 24 days till Christmas!

From two weeks, there are
- 12 fewer condos listed on MLS.ca
- 9 fewer townhomes
- 53 fewer SFH

The decline in listings of SFH this year does not appear to be as steep as last year.

For November's VREB stats, I'm guessing active listings to have decreased to around 3200. This would be very near to last year's active listings for November. As for November's sales and prices, really, I have no idea. For fun, let's say 600 sales, SFH average price up from October, condo and townhome average down.

CMHC "Housing Now" Report for October

CMHC has released their October "Housing Now" report for Victoria.

There's always next year...

It's tough watching your team lose the big game. But hey, they were big-time underdogs, and did better than I expected. Thanks Bombers, for the run this year, and better luck next year!

Back to real estate. Tell me, if the market is so hot, as according to the VREB, are there ads in the TC like the following for developments that are complete or nearly complete. Shouldn't they be sold out?!?

Regional SFH Numbers

First of all, what a great couple of football games yesterday! Being from the prairies, I couldn't be happier! Winnipeg vs. Regina in the Grey Cup! Perhaps the CFL's greatest rivalry. Sunday's game should be a real barn-burner!

Back to real estate, following are graphs of sales numbers and median selling prices for Victoria, Saanich, Oak Bay, Esquimalt, and Langford. A picture is worth a thousand words, so that's all from me.

Victoria

Saanich

Oak Bay

Esquimalt

Langford

November 17 Week Ending Stats

It's been a couple weeks since I posted week ending stats (to be exact, October 27 was the last). Based on MLS.ca, here is what I've seen since then.

- There are 56 fewer SFH listed. The largest drop in listings is in the $400k to $500k price range (a drop of 22 listings - from 176 to 154)
- There are 20 more condos listed.
- There are 14 more townhomes listed.

Comparing the number of SFH listings this year to last year, even with the decreasing numbers, they don't appear to be dropping as fast. In fact, in the $500k to $600k range, the number of SFH listings has been flat since early August. However, last year on this weekend, there were 1073 SFH listed. Today, 884 listed. The market for SFH under $500k is still very tight.

On a side note, WOW!, unanimous decision on the CMHC. Mohican has started a new blog discussing dissolving the CMHC. Check it out.

Lest We Forget...

Thank a veteran this weekend for the sacrifice they made for our freedoms today. Have a great Remembrance Day Weekend!

Some superficial topics to consider
- Stats Canada New Housing Price Index
- CMHC housing starts for October
- City of Victoria's new downtown plans

CMHC Q4 Housing Market Outlook

I'm sorry to interrupt the ongoing commentary. I just wanted to point out that CMHC has released their 4th quarter housing market outlook for Victoria. You can read it here.

Highlights according to CMHC are:
- Victoria's housing industry robust, growth spurred by strong economy.
- Resale market sales to edge down, prices to rise slowly.
- New homebuilding will level off in 2008.
- New home prices to rise.
- Rental vacancies will remain low.

I think I've heard that all before.

October Sales Numbers

VREB has released the October sales numbers. H/T to Roger for beating me to the punch for commentary and review. You can read it over at HHV.

Single family home sales and median prices over the past 3 years in Greater Victoria.

Condo sales and median sales prices.

Townhome sales and median sales prices.

Draw your own conclusions. I think it's started. Looks like a bearish month. I'm awarding a touchdown to the Bears. And wait! What's that? HHV's attempting a two point convert! The pass is up, ball's in the air... and... knocked down by the defender! Sorry HHV. I just couldn't do it. The score is now Bulls 26, Bears 19.

CMHC "Housing Now" Report for September

CMHC has released their September 2007 edition of "Housing Now" for Victoria. It can be viewed here.

Highlights include:
- 17.8% fewer starts in September 2007 versus September 2006.
- 21.9% more units under construction this September versus last.

There was a significant average price increase between August and September.

The poll on the sidebar has produced interesting, yet not surprising, results. Most readers of this blog are bearish on real estate, but there are some bulls out there. I think that 2008 will be a critical year for real estate prices. If there are no price declines next year, I will probably start to believe that this time it is different.

October 27 Week Ending Stats

The number of listings on MLS.ca is down this Saturday in comparison to last Saturday. There are 22 fewer SFH, 11 fewer townhomes, and 17 fewer condos.

I'm gonna go out on a limb this week. I'm calling Victoria's average SFH sale price in September ($584193) as the peak average price for Victoria for the next couple years. With winter coming, what's going on in the U.S. and Alberta, and rising mortgage rates, I think we've hit the top. April 2008 will be the first time since March 2007 that Victoria has a year over year decrease in average SFH price. Average monthly prices for the summer of 2008 will be lower than the summer of 2007.

Of course, I am 100% amateur, and have nothing riding on this prediction (aside from house prices moving further from my affordability level if I'm wrong). Put only as much stock into this as you want.

As I write, I have friends bidding on a house in Victoria. As strongly as I feel, I try not to influence their decision. If I am wrong, and they hold back because of me, thus falling further behind the rising prices, I'm partially responsible. I don't want to be. Everyone needs to be responsible for their own decisions. If you are comfortable with the numbers, go ahead and seal the deal. I think that good things will come to those who wait.

Update: My friends bidding on the house did not get it. Reason being - after offers were supposed to be in, the selling realtor continued to show the house, and tell new interested parties what the current high offer was. It's pretty easy to place the highest offer when you know what second place will be. The ethics of some in the realtor profession continue to disappoint me.