Very interesting results from this last week's polls. Of course, it wasn't very scientific. But, that's ok. Here they are...
53% (33 of 62) of you are pessimistic about 2008. I'm sorry to hear that. Pray tell...
73% (53 of 72) believe that Victoria's average SFH selling price will be lower in 2008 than 2007. Let's hope so.
52% (36 of 69) think that Canada's economy will go into recession in 2008. Are you the pessimistic ones?
95% (66 of 69) know that the U.S. economy will go into recession this year.
78% (54 of 69) think that the loonie will remain above par with the greenback. This may hasten our recession.
33% (22 of 65) think oil will hit $100 this year. So far, you're right.
23% (15 of 65) think $110.
29% (19 of 65) think $120. Hmm...
13% (9 of 65) are shooting for the stars - $150. Or maybe not. Did you all vote late in the polls?
62% (39 of 62) believe that we'll be going to the federal polls this year.
92% (61 of 66) think that the oval office will be headed by a democrat. Not very surprising.
Great! Thanks for taking part. Feel free to comment on the results.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Sunday, January 6, 2008
December Sales Numbers
I'm a little late on this one. I'm glad it's getting discussed in the previous posts' comments. Thus, I won't comment much here on the December numbers. However, I will throw out the graphs.
Single family home sales for the past three years. Look at the regional sales prices on the VREB website. Those million dollar SFH sales had to have only been in Oak Bay, Saanich East, and Victoria (maybe one in North Saanich). The other regions, they are either below or only marginally above the 6 month average.
Condo sales.
Townhome sales.
Finally, months of inventory for all properties. Where is it going to go from here?
The football game has finally ended. Thank goodness! The Bulls kicker made a field goal. A Bears player made a late hit on the kicker, and a side clearing brawl ensued. Those Bears are sore losers! I'm just kidding. I'm just a bitter renter. Final score, Bulls 32, Bears 19.
Single family home sales for the past three years. Look at the regional sales prices on the VREB website. Those million dollar SFH sales had to have only been in Oak Bay, Saanich East, and Victoria (maybe one in North Saanich). The other regions, they are either below or only marginally above the 6 month average.
Condo sales.
Townhome sales.
Finally, months of inventory for all properties. Where is it going to go from here?
The football game has finally ended. Thank goodness! The Bulls kicker made a field goal. A Bears player made a late hit on the kicker, and a side clearing brawl ensued. Those Bears are sore losers! I'm just kidding. I'm just a bitter renter. Final score, Bulls 32, Bears 19.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Happy New Year!
A new year has begun. For some, this means overcoming a hangover, others, time to reflect, speculate, or make goals for the next 366 days. I'm not a believer in resolutions. However, it is nice to start a new year in order to make statements like "I haven't had a smoke this year" or "The Canucks haven't lost this year". Those statements often don't last very long.
What will 2008 bring? I'm pretty excited - I think it will be a very interesting year. I feel that there is much at the tipping point. Governments, economies, real estate, beer prices. Regarding RE, I'd be along the lines of HHV's predictions. Victoria has peaked, but without the help of a major external influence, will not crash this year.
I thought it would be interesting to get all of your takes on what is in store for 2008. I've created a few polls on the side - please do place your votes. And as usual, comment away. I always enjoy reading them!
What will 2008 bring? I'm pretty excited - I think it will be a very interesting year. I feel that there is much at the tipping point. Governments, economies, real estate, beer prices. Regarding RE, I'd be along the lines of HHV's predictions. Victoria has peaked, but without the help of a major external influence, will not crash this year.
I thought it would be interesting to get all of your takes on what is in store for 2008. I've created a few polls on the side - please do place your votes. And as usual, comment away. I always enjoy reading them!
Thursday, December 27, 2007
CMHC "Housing Now" Report for November
The November edition of CMHC's "Housing Now" report for Victoria is now available.
Highlights include (the usual):
- robust construction activity.
- low unemployment.
- a slowing in new home starts.
CMHC's construction volume graph changed this month. Last month, construction volume was displayed as a total for Greater Victoria. This month, it's a bar graph for the different regions (figure 1). Perhaps the change is due to the fact that the old graph was downright scary, as under construction numbers are at record highs, and continue increasing.
If Victoria's construction volume dropped from today's number of 3296 units under construction, to historical norms, around 1000 units under construction, I wonder what the city's unemployment level would be. What if construction dropped to 1990's levels?
But of course, that will never happen. Everyone wants to live here and housing will never go down.
Highlights include (the usual):
- robust construction activity.
- low unemployment.
- a slowing in new home starts.
CMHC's construction volume graph changed this month. Last month, construction volume was displayed as a total for Greater Victoria. This month, it's a bar graph for the different regions (figure 1). Perhaps the change is due to the fact that the old graph was downright scary, as under construction numbers are at record highs, and continue increasing.
If Victoria's construction volume dropped from today's number of 3296 units under construction, to historical norms, around 1000 units under construction, I wonder what the city's unemployment level would be. What if construction dropped to 1990's levels?
But of course, that will never happen. Everyone wants to live here and housing will never go down.
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Merry Christmas!
Merry Christmas to you all, God bless, and please take time to reflect and enjoy family and friends over the next couple days!
I'll try to get one more post in before the new year, hoping to spark conversation on what 2008 will bring. I've had to take a small hiatus from the blog to study for a career-related challenge exam this past week. Thanks for keeping up the commentary. I do enjoy taking time to read what is on everyones' mind.
On a RE note, we can all sleep well this Christmas knowing that Victoria's and VI's real estate market will never go down, because our economy will never slow down, at least according to the article in today's TC! Is it arrogance, naivety, or pure deceit to say and think that with all that is going on in Canada, North America, and the World, that we truly are an island and that nothing affects us? I wonder how such opinions would change if Victoria wasn't on an island, but rather the mainland. I'm sure some other bogus argument would be found.
The number of listings on MLS.ca has rapidly decreased for SFH the past couple weeks. For condos and townhomes, it's a different story. The number of condo listings continues to be very high. This will be due to the developments around town.
Finally, I just thought I'd post a couple of funny pictures I found while browsing Google for a Christmas picture. I hope they don't offend anyone. Merry Christmas!
I'll try to get one more post in before the new year, hoping to spark conversation on what 2008 will bring. I've had to take a small hiatus from the blog to study for a career-related challenge exam this past week. Thanks for keeping up the commentary. I do enjoy taking time to read what is on everyones' mind.
On a RE note, we can all sleep well this Christmas knowing that Victoria's and VI's real estate market will never go down, because our economy will never slow down, at least according to the article in today's TC! Is it arrogance, naivety, or pure deceit to say and think that with all that is going on in Canada, North America, and the World, that we truly are an island and that nothing affects us? I wonder how such opinions would change if Victoria wasn't on an island, but rather the mainland. I'm sure some other bogus argument would be found.
The number of listings on MLS.ca has rapidly decreased for SFH the past couple weeks. For condos and townhomes, it's a different story. The number of condo listings continues to be very high. This will be due to the developments around town.
Finally, I just thought I'd post a couple of funny pictures I found while browsing Google for a Christmas picture. I hope they don't offend anyone. Merry Christmas!
Saturday, December 8, 2007
December 8 Week Ending Stats
The quantity of SFH listings on the MLS continues to trend downward as we approach Christmas. There are 63 fewer SFH listed this Saturday than last.
Condo listings are trending down also, but not as quickly. There are 27 fewer condos listed today. Townhomes listings are bucking the trend. There is 1 more listing today than last Saturday.
Condo listings are trending down also, but not as quickly. There are 27 fewer condos listed today. Townhomes listings are bucking the trend. There is 1 more listing today than last Saturday.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
You Know the Local RE Market is HOT when...
Kinetic Construction Ltd. is suing Tuscany Village Holding Ltd. for $2,245,982. (Business Examiner Vancouver Island Edition, Dec.3 - Dec16, Who's Suing Whom)
Want a cheap condo? It might be a good time to go and low-ball Tuscany Village!
Want a cheap condo? It might be a good time to go and low-ball Tuscany Village!
Monday, December 3, 2007
November Sales Numbers
VREB has posted November's sales numbers. I was close on my estimates! Except for the average townhome price, the numbers don't surprise me. Bev McIvor's two bits have changed from "it’s important to note that nearly a third of single family homes last month sold for under $425,000" this last summer to "The high demand and robust prices show continued strong consumer confidence in the market" this fall. Also, I got a flyer in the mail today from "Condo Conroy" stating "There are FAR fewer units on the market right now than there was last year..." I call bullsh**.
It appears that stuff is still selling. The number that speaks the most to me is 623 sales. That is 9% more than last November, and more than November 2005. The market does still have legs. I'm beginning to think it will take something big to knock those legs out from under it.
It was a bullish month. The Bulls scored a field goal. Score is Bulls 29, Bears 19.
It appears that stuff is still selling. The number that speaks the most to me is 623 sales. That is 9% more than last November, and more than November 2005. The market does still have legs. I'm beginning to think it will take something big to knock those legs out from under it.
It was a bullish month. The Bulls scored a field goal. Score is Bulls 29, Bears 19.
Saturday, December 1, 2007
December 1 Week Ending Stats
The number of listings of homes of all types continues to decline. This can be attributed to the fact that it's only 24 days till Christmas!
From two weeks, there are
- 12 fewer condos listed on MLS.ca
- 9 fewer townhomes
- 53 fewer SFH
The decline in listings of SFH this year does not appear to be as steep as last year.
For November's VREB stats, I'm guessing active listings to have decreased to around 3200. This would be very near to last year's active listings for November. As for November's sales and prices, really, I have no idea. For fun, let's say 600 sales, SFH average price up from October, condo and townhome average down.
From two weeks, there are
- 12 fewer condos listed on MLS.ca
- 9 fewer townhomes
- 53 fewer SFH
The decline in listings of SFH this year does not appear to be as steep as last year.
For November's VREB stats, I'm guessing active listings to have decreased to around 3200. This would be very near to last year's active listings for November. As for November's sales and prices, really, I have no idea. For fun, let's say 600 sales, SFH average price up from October, condo and townhome average down.
CMHC "Housing Now" Report for October
CMHC has released their October "Housing Now" report for Victoria.
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