Back to real estate. Tell me, if the market is so hot, as according to the VREB, are there ads in the TC like the following for developments that are complete or nearly complete. Shouldn't they be sold out?!?
Sunday, November 25, 2007
There's always next year...
It's tough watching your team lose the big game. But hey, they were big-time underdogs, and did better than I expected. Thanks Bombers, for the run this year, and better luck next year!
Back to real estate. Tell me, if the market is so hot, as according to the VREB, are there ads in the TC like the following for developments that are complete or nearly complete. Shouldn't they be sold out?!?
Back to real estate. Tell me, if the market is so hot, as according to the VREB, are there ads in the TC like the following for developments that are complete or nearly complete. Shouldn't they be sold out?!?
Monday, November 19, 2007
Regional SFH Numbers
First of all, what a great couple of football games yesterday! Being from the prairies, I couldn't be happier! Winnipeg vs. Regina in the Grey Cup! Perhaps the CFL's greatest rivalry. Sunday's game should be a real barn-burner!
Back to real estate, following are graphs of sales numbers and median selling prices for Victoria, Saanich, Oak Bay, Esquimalt, and Langford. A picture is worth a thousand words, so that's all from me.
Victoria
Saanich
Oak Bay
Esquimalt
Langford
Back to real estate, following are graphs of sales numbers and median selling prices for Victoria, Saanich, Oak Bay, Esquimalt, and Langford. A picture is worth a thousand words, so that's all from me.
Victoria
Saanich
Oak Bay
Esquimalt
Langford
Saturday, November 17, 2007
November 17 Week Ending Stats
It's been a couple weeks since I posted week ending stats (to be exact, October 27 was the last). Based on MLS.ca, here is what I've seen since then.
- There are 56 fewer SFH listed. The largest drop in listings is in the $400k to $500k price range (a drop of 22 listings - from 176 to 154)
- There are 20 more condos listed.
- There are 14 more townhomes listed.
Comparing the number of SFH listings this year to last year, even with the decreasing numbers, they don't appear to be dropping as fast. In fact, in the $500k to $600k range, the number of SFH listings has been flat since early August. However, last year on this weekend, there were 1073 SFH listed. Today, 884 listed. The market for SFH under $500k is still very tight.
On a side note, WOW!, unanimous decision on the CMHC. Mohican has started a new blog discussing dissolving the CMHC. Check it out.
- There are 56 fewer SFH listed. The largest drop in listings is in the $400k to $500k price range (a drop of 22 listings - from 176 to 154)
- There are 20 more condos listed.
- There are 14 more townhomes listed.
Comparing the number of SFH listings this year to last year, even with the decreasing numbers, they don't appear to be dropping as fast. In fact, in the $500k to $600k range, the number of SFH listings has been flat since early August. However, last year on this weekend, there were 1073 SFH listed. Today, 884 listed. The market for SFH under $500k is still very tight.On a side note, WOW!, unanimous decision on the CMHC. Mohican has started a new blog discussing dissolving the CMHC. Check it out.
Friday, November 9, 2007
Lest We Forget...
Thank a veteran this weekend for the sacrifice they made for our freedoms today. Have a great Remembrance Day Weekend!Some superficial topics to consider
- Stats Canada New Housing Price Index
- CMHC housing starts for October
- City of Victoria's new downtown plans
Monday, November 5, 2007
CMHC Q4 Housing Market Outlook
I'm sorry to interrupt the ongoing commentary. I just wanted to point out that CMHC has released their 4th quarter housing market outlook for Victoria. You can read it here.
Highlights according to CMHC are:
- Victoria's housing industry robust, growth spurred by strong economy.
- Resale market sales to edge down, prices to rise slowly.
- New homebuilding will level off in 2008.
- New home prices to rise.
- Rental vacancies will remain low.
I think I've heard that all before.
Highlights according to CMHC are:
- Victoria's housing industry robust, growth spurred by strong economy.
- Resale market sales to edge down, prices to rise slowly.
- New homebuilding will level off in 2008.
- New home prices to rise.
- Rental vacancies will remain low.
I think I've heard that all before.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
October Sales Numbers
VREB has released the October sales numbers. H/T to Roger for beating me to the punch for commentary and review. You can read it over at HHV.
Single family home sales and median prices over the past 3 years in Greater Victoria.
Condo sales and median sales prices.
Townhome sales and median sales prices.
Draw your own conclusions. I think it's started. Looks like a bearish month. I'm awarding a touchdown to the Bears. And wait! What's that? HHV's attempting a two point convert! The pass is up, ball's in the air... and... knocked down by the defender! Sorry HHV. I just couldn't do it. The score is now Bulls 26, Bears 19.
Single family home sales and median prices over the past 3 years in Greater Victoria.
Condo sales and median sales prices.
Townhome sales and median sales prices.
Draw your own conclusions. I think it's started. Looks like a bearish month. I'm awarding a touchdown to the Bears. And wait! What's that? HHV's attempting a two point convert! The pass is up, ball's in the air... and... knocked down by the defender! Sorry HHV. I just couldn't do it. The score is now Bulls 26, Bears 19.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
CMHC "Housing Now" Report for September
CMHC has released their September 2007 edition of "Housing Now" for Victoria. It can be viewed here.
Highlights include:
- 17.8% fewer starts in September 2007 versus September 2006.
- 21.9% more units under construction this September versus last.
There was a significant average price increase between August and September.
The poll on the sidebar has produced interesting, yet not surprising, results. Most readers of this blog are bearish on real estate, but there are some bulls out there. I think that 2008 will be a critical year for real estate prices. If there are no price declines next year, I will probably start to believe that this time it is different.
Highlights include:
- 17.8% fewer starts in September 2007 versus September 2006.
- 21.9% more units under construction this September versus last.
There was a significant average price increase between August and September.
The poll on the sidebar has produced interesting, yet not surprising, results. Most readers of this blog are bearish on real estate, but there are some bulls out there. I think that 2008 will be a critical year for real estate prices. If there are no price declines next year, I will probably start to believe that this time it is different.
Saturday, October 27, 2007
October 27 Week Ending Stats
The number of listings on MLS.ca is down this Saturday in comparison to last Saturday. There are 22 fewer SFH, 11 fewer townhomes, and 17 fewer condos.
I'm gonna go out on a limb this week. I'm calling Victoria's average SFH sale price in September ($584193) as the peak average price for Victoria for the next couple years. With winter coming, what's going on in the U.S. and Alberta, and rising mortgage rates, I think we've hit the top. April 2008 will be the first time since March 2007 that Victoria has a year over year decrease in average SFH price. Average monthly prices for the summer of 2008 will be lower than the summer of 2007.
Of course, I am 100% amateur, and have nothing riding on this prediction (aside from house prices moving further from my affordability level if I'm wrong). Put only as much stock into this as you want.
As I write, I have friends bidding on a house in Victoria. As strongly as I feel, I try not to influence their decision. If I am wrong, and they hold back because of me, thus falling further behind the rising prices, I'm partially responsible. I don't want to be. Everyone needs to be responsible for their own decisions. If you are comfortable with the numbers, go ahead and seal the deal. I think that good things will come to those who wait.
Update: My friends bidding on the house did not get it. Reason being - after offers were supposed to be in, the selling realtor continued to show the house, and tell new interested parties what the current high offer was. It's pretty easy to place the highest offer when you know what second place will be. The ethics of some in the realtor profession continue to disappoint me.
I'm gonna go out on a limb this week. I'm calling Victoria's average SFH sale price in September ($584193) as the peak average price for Victoria for the next couple years. With winter coming, what's going on in the U.S. and Alberta, and rising mortgage rates, I think we've hit the top. April 2008 will be the first time since March 2007 that Victoria has a year over year decrease in average SFH price. Average monthly prices for the summer of 2008 will be lower than the summer of 2007.
Of course, I am 100% amateur, and have nothing riding on this prediction (aside from house prices moving further from my affordability level if I'm wrong). Put only as much stock into this as you want.
As I write, I have friends bidding on a house in Victoria. As strongly as I feel, I try not to influence their decision. If I am wrong, and they hold back because of me, thus falling further behind the rising prices, I'm partially responsible. I don't want to be. Everyone needs to be responsible for their own decisions. If you are comfortable with the numbers, go ahead and seal the deal. I think that good things will come to those who wait.
Update: My friends bidding on the house did not get it. Reason being - after offers were supposed to be in, the selling realtor continued to show the house, and tell new interested parties what the current high offer was. It's pretty easy to place the highest offer when you know what second place will be. The ethics of some in the realtor profession continue to disappoint me.
Saturday, October 20, 2007
October 20 Week Ending Stats
SFH listings on MLS are down slightly this week. Here's a new graph for perspective on how the SFH market has changed from one year ago. I'll probably continue to graph SFH listings numbers in this format from now on.
Condo listings continue to rise. 1243 condos listed on MLS this morning. There were 1214 last Saturday, 1181 two weeks ago, 1138 three weeks ago. This rise in condos listings will put the VREB month end active listings numbers above September 2007 and above October 2006. I think we may actually come close to our peak listings from June of this year. This would put the market at six months of inventory.
In the circle of people I know, a few of them have mentioned that they think the market is softening, and are debating on putting their homes up for sale. They don't need to sell, but if they can get such and such a price, they would sell. That's fine for them, but I don't think that approach is selling homes today. A home in Victoria needs to be very competitively priced to sell quickly. This appears to also apply to new condo and townhome developments.
Take Casa Bella townhomes in Langford in comparison to the townhomes of Reflections, The Pearl on Hillside, and Richmond Gate. Casa Bella has sold like hotcakes, the others are not, to say the least. Casa Bella homes are the same size or larger, and priced less than the others. It doesn't surprise me that they have essentially sold out (21 - three bedroom units). Reflections has not sold one townhome, The Pearl has sold 2 of their 5, Richond Gate has sold 2 of their 6.
I know this sounds like a plug for Casa Bella. It's not intended to be. I think they represented value for your money compared to others. That's what it takes to sell in today's market.
I wonder how long the developers (or whoever put the initial investment forward) of Tuscany Village, Richmond Gate, The Breakwater, The Julia, and others, can hold out before we see some real price decreases.
Condo listings continue to rise. 1243 condos listed on MLS this morning. There were 1214 last Saturday, 1181 two weeks ago, 1138 three weeks ago. This rise in condos listings will put the VREB month end active listings numbers above September 2007 and above October 2006. I think we may actually come close to our peak listings from June of this year. This would put the market at six months of inventory.
In the circle of people I know, a few of them have mentioned that they think the market is softening, and are debating on putting their homes up for sale. They don't need to sell, but if they can get such and such a price, they would sell. That's fine for them, but I don't think that approach is selling homes today. A home in Victoria needs to be very competitively priced to sell quickly. This appears to also apply to new condo and townhome developments.
Take Casa Bella townhomes in Langford in comparison to the townhomes of Reflections, The Pearl on Hillside, and Richmond Gate. Casa Bella has sold like hotcakes, the others are not, to say the least. Casa Bella homes are the same size or larger, and priced less than the others. It doesn't surprise me that they have essentially sold out (21 - three bedroom units). Reflections has not sold one townhome, The Pearl has sold 2 of their 5, Richond Gate has sold 2 of their 6.
I know this sounds like a plug for Casa Bella. It's not intended to be. I think they represented value for your money compared to others. That's what it takes to sell in today's market.
I wonder how long the developers (or whoever put the initial investment forward) of Tuscany Village, Richmond Gate, The Breakwater, The Julia, and others, can hold out before we see some real price decreases.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
What a relief!
Phew! What a relief! Boy, I'll be able to sleep good tonight!
Why, you ask? Well, it's because Re/Max has released their 2008 housing market forecast. I'm now ready to jump on board and buy the biggest house I possibly can. This is because it's going to rise in value by 5% next year. That's more than my savings account is getting! Besides, 5% of $500000 is a gain of $25000. Yippee, our real estate market has legs! And this is despite everything that is happening around us!
Seriously, why is any stock given to reports like this. The TC of course eats it up. Even if by fluke they are right, it's a totally biased report. It's totally useless. If even CMHC's numbers are suspect, how can a real estate firms' report be given any validation?
Sorry about the lack of blogging these days. I think I've hit the October doldrums. No, I've had those for a while. Real estate is getting a little boring. I want to see some action. Lets' see some price drops, crashes, and other signs of desperation. I don't want to see people get hurt, but my patience is growing thin.
Why, you ask? Well, it's because Re/Max has released their 2008 housing market forecast. I'm now ready to jump on board and buy the biggest house I possibly can. This is because it's going to rise in value by 5% next year. That's more than my savings account is getting! Besides, 5% of $500000 is a gain of $25000. Yippee, our real estate market has legs! And this is despite everything that is happening around us!
Seriously, why is any stock given to reports like this. The TC of course eats it up. Even if by fluke they are right, it's a totally biased report. It's totally useless. If even CMHC's numbers are suspect, how can a real estate firms' report be given any validation?
Sorry about the lack of blogging these days. I think I've hit the October doldrums. No, I've had those for a while. Real estate is getting a little boring. I want to see some action. Lets' see some price drops, crashes, and other signs of desperation. I don't want to see people get hurt, but my patience is growing thin.
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