Saturday, January 27, 2007

Average SFH Prices - non-CPI and CPI Adjusted

I've gotten into a Saturday morning routine where I quickly get up, make a pot of coffee, sit down in front of the MLS website, and glean it for all it's worth. However, was down this morning. So, I devoted myself to making a couple of handsome graphs of Victoria's average SFH prices over the years. The graphs actually aren't too handsome, as I have not yet figured out all aspects of pictures and links in a blog. I've got some homework to do.

Single Family Home average selling prices were taken from the Victoria Real Estate Board website. Here - and here -

As numerical data wasn't given for the years prior to 1978, I looked very closely at the historical graph to get values for 1967 through 1977.

The following graph is based on average SFH selling prices, not taking CPI inflation into consideration. My graph should look the same as the one from VREB, with color cues from VHB and OHB.

The graph nicely shows that, over time, RE always goes up. Of course, during the down turns, or RE market crashes, that may not appear so believable.

A better graph of average home prices is one where prices take inflation into consideration. Using the same average home price numbers, and the CPI values from the Bank of Canada, I calculated new average SFH prices.

I had CPI inflation values until 1975. For 1967 through 1974, I used CPI values that were averaged from 1975 to 2006. Taking CPI inflation into consideration magnifies the price declines during the early 1970s and the mid-1980s. It appears that from 2002 till the present, we are definitely above the norm for average SFH prices.

Based on these graphs, where are SFH prices going? Have we reached another peak, with a down turn coming to bring us into line with historical norms? Or will prices continue to rise indefinitely?

Unfortunately, as I was manipulating my graphs to make them somewhat more eye-catching, I closed Excel without saving my data. I had assumed I had previously saved it. I had not. Thus, I will, in the future, go through a spell of deja vu as I recreate my spreadsheet. At that point, I'll have data to prove the graphs.