Saturday, March 31, 2007

March 31 Week Ending Stats

Great discussions this week. I'm sorry I wasn't a part of it. The wireless internet at my hotel in Campbell River this week was sketchy at the best of times. Fortunately, I think my schedule for the near future keeps me at home. As great as it is to get 123+ comments on a post, I'll try to post more frequently, thus keeping you from having so much scrolling. Also, I've appreciated the emails with suggestions on future topics.

Ahhh, Campbell River. The final frontier. Well, not quite. On first impression, it appeared to me that there were a lot of for sale signs on the Old Island Highway. Not knowing the area though, that may be the norm. Quick check on MLS, and for $200 / square foot, you get ocean front property. Not bad, but still a little too much. Really, how many salaries in Campbell River can afford a $600000 home? Any up island readers out there? What are you seeing in your cities?

There was a definate up-tick of listings for SFH on MLS this week. There are 41 more SFH listed this Saturday than last Saturday. There are 125 more SFH listed today than there was four weeks ago. As we all know, this week's VREB report will show a continued increase in active listings. Of course, not knowing the number of sales, I can't estimate very accurately the number of active listings for the month. A rough guess, I'd say we're in the ballpark of around 3150 active listings for March. This would be a 27% increase in listings over last year.

Inventory of homes in the $400k - $500k and the >$700k continues to rise, while the other price ranges are closer to flat. I don't quite understand why the $400k - $500k range is increasing faster than the other sub-$700k ranges. Perhaps it is because a lot of the newer homes being built in the 'burbs are in that price range. Perhaps it is because homes below $400k and above $500k are selling, but the $400k - $500k range has low value for your money. Below $400k are "starter" homes, while above $500k, you get a lot more for your money than the $400k - $500k range.

Percentage of homes in each price range was flat for the week.

This will be an interesting week with March stats coming out. My prediction for average prices - SFH and townhomes down from February, condos up slightly. As useless a stat as it is, the YOY for SFH for March should be fun. March 2006 SFH average was $557k. If this March is down, maybe to $520k, that a 7% YOY decrease. If we do see a down March, with negative YOY numbers, do you think the MSM will report that? I doubt it - they'll spin it some way, some how.