April 26 Week Ending Stats

Inventory is continuing to rise, however, not at the pace that it was in March. According to this realtor's website, there are currently 4070 active listings in Greater Victoria. This is around 200 more than at the end of March. In comparison, the month of March saw an increase of around 350 listings on their website.

Today, there are 137 more SFH listings on MLS than on the 29th of March. The greatest increase in listings has been for SFH priced higher than $700k. There have been comments on the incredible number of listings with asking prices higher than $1 million. Today, there are 248 of such listings. Crazy!

There are 20 more townhomes listed today than there were on March 29. The number of condos listed is basically unchanged.

I have to pick on this one $1 million+ listings. MLS#240724. Seriously, what are these people smoking? $1049000 for this POS? Yeah right!

March Condo Sales Graphs

The Housing Boom is Officially Over!

Thanks to anonymous for mentioning this occasion on Craigslist.

Yes, according to The Globe and Mail, and specifically Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., the housing boom in Canada is now officially over. First quarter statistics are what helped him come to that conclusion.

Certainly, we are seeing this in Victoria. Inventory is ballooning and sales are the lowest in years.

Will we follow in the footsteps of our neighbours south of the border? Perhaps. Perhaps not. But the market is definitely not what it was in the previous 2 or 3 years.

Discuss away!

March SFH Sales Graphs

A picture is worth a thousand words...

March Sales Numbers

The Victoria Real Estate Board has posted March's sales numbers. Commentary on the numbers started in the last post. Please do continue. It looks to me like this year is going to the bears.

Following are SFH, condo, and townhome graphs for Greater Victoria. More are to follow in the coming days.

Has the market turned?

I'm glad to see that this blog keeps going even when I'm absent - just like an energizer bunny!

FYI, we haven't bought, we haven't even been to a mortgage broker. In fact, I think we have decided to stay put for the time being. We'll make it work where we are!

It does appear that the market may have turned over the past 1-2 months. Listings are rocketing upwards, sales "appear" to be really low and slow. Realtors are saying that the market has "stabilized", some are even recommending to not rush into anything. People are talking about the slowing of the market, and friends are advising friends to be careful when looking at purchasing. These are all people that I think were very positive on the market 6 months ago.

Right now, there are 3888 active listings. February 29th there were 3526 active listings. The VREB always seems to state listings in a month to be lower that on this realtor's website. Regardless, VREB should have the active listings number for March to be around 350 higher than February's. That would put their listings at around 3660. This blows away the peak of listings from last year (June - around 3550) and we are only in March! If the number of sales is as low as it appears to be, March's numbers will be very interesting! We'll see how Tony Joe spins this month's numbers.

Listings of SFH priced over $700k is nearly bursting off my chart! There are currently more than 200 SFH listed with an asking price of $1 million or higher. Let's see, if there are 10 sales in that price range, we'd have 20 months supply of million dollars homes. Good grief!

CMHC has released their "Housing Now" report for Victoria for February.

February Housing Starts

CMHC has released February's housing starts numbers.

Thus far this year, housing starts are down from 2007. However, we are still at a record number of homes under construction.

What will Victoria's unemployment rate be when the number of homes under construction moves lower to normal levels ( 1/4 of today's homes under construction)????

February Sales Numbers

The Victoria Real Estate Board has released their sales numbers for February. Discussion has started in the comments of the previous post. Please feel free to continue commenting on this post.

In comparison to February 2007, sales are down, prices are up, and listings are up. In comparison to January 2008, sales are up, prices are down, listings are up. The last time that Greater Victoria has seen two consecutive months of single family home price decreases was between June and August 2006. SFH average price has decreased 6% since it's peak in December 2007.

Average condo price has pretty much been horizontal since November 2006.

Average townhome price is off big-time from it's peak in November 2007.

I'd love to provide some graphs, but unfortunately, about 2 weeks ago I had a horrendous case of spyware on my computer and was forced to format my hard drive. I haven't located my copy of Excel as of yet. Once I do, the graphs will be back!

Why Not Rent?

Here's a challenge, perhaps a dare. Find me a home to rent. It needs to be in View Royal, Langford, Colwood, Mill Bay, Shawnigan, maybe Cobble Hill. It must have 3 bedrooms up, 3 bedrooms (or 2 bedrooms and den / office) down (down is a suite). They must be separate living spaces. The lower suite must be above ground, with minimum 8 foot ceilings and large windows. The house must have a garage and a decent sized yard. The house must be available to rent April 1st or later.

All this for $2500 a month.

If you can find me this house, I will seriously consider renting it. I don't think it exists. I'd love to be wrong.

Why Rent?

I need to vent a little.

Unfortunately, the time has come for my wife and I to find a new rental. Reasons being that she works a couple days a week in Duncan, and we live south end of Victoria, so the commute is long, costly, and I don't really like her driving the Malahat so often (I'm a bit of a worry-wart). Also, we are hoping that in the next year or two, we will require more space, as in another bedroom. And so, we are looking for a 2 bedroom and den or 3 bedroom rental that is west of View Royal.

Rentals of that sort are not easily come by! And the prices! Yikes! Are any of you looking for the same thing these days? Unbelievable!

Three-quarters of available rentals are 1 or 2 bedroom. A 3 bedroom rental will be either an entire house, or the upper portion (there are a few 3 bedroom lower rentals, but I imagine them to be dungeons.) Monthly rent for a 3 bedroom does go as low as $1100 / month, but most are more that $1400 / month, the average probably being around $1800 / month. A lot of those don't meet our location criteria.

I'm just tired of renting. Tired of fighting for parking spots. Tired of our minuscule little kitchen. Tired of living in basements. Tired of trying to find a rental for one month from now because our rental agreement states we must give one month notice, yet 90% of all the rentals available are available immediately. Tired of not putting our roots down anywhere.

You guys had better keep me on the straight and narrow. I'm on the verge of going to the bank to see what we what size of mortgage we may qualify for. I feel like we are getting close to the point where for the sake of personal happiness, we may go against better judgement.